Senin, 28 Juni 2021

Why the Fed's Bluff Will Cost Investors Trillions, Part 1

Money & Crisis

June 28, 2021

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Why the Fed's Bluff Will Cost Investors Trillions, Part 1

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

So the Fed finally moved… but what precisely did it do?

After a full year of the most extreme monetary policy in history, including…

  1. Over 12 months of ZERO interest rate policy despite a growing economy.
  2. Over $3 trillion in money printing.
  3. Buying corporate bonds, muni bonds, corporate bond ETFs, Treasuries, Mortgage-Backed Securities Student Loans, Certificates of Deposit, etc.

…the Fed finally announced it is thinking about tightening monetary conditions.

It only took CPI clearing 5%, multiple signals that inflation is running hot, the housing market entering a bubble, stocks roaring to new all-time highs, and other signs of frothiness including: Non-Fungible Token (NFT) mania, “joke” cryptocurrencies exploding higher, etc.

Put simply, it only took an extreme level of frothiness as well as some of the worst inflation prints in decades for the Fed to decide it needed to do something.

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Our institutions are overrun by leftist radicals…

Our elections are rigged...

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What Was That Something?

The Fed announced that it intended to start tapering QE in late 2021/early 2022 while also potentially raising rates late in 2022/early 2023.

Regardless of whether or not the Fed will actually do any of this, what matters for us today is how the market reacted to the Fed announcement.

Treasuries, particularly long-term Treasuries (20-plus years) caught a major bid on the news.

The long-term Treasury ETF (TLT) jumped 4% in the span of a few days. This forced widespread liquidations at hedge funds in their short bond positions. And when hedge funds start liquidating losses, they often will liquidate winners as well to free up capital.

Chart: TLT

You can see this in the stock market when compared to TLT: they are a mirror image of one another (blue rectangle in the chart below) with stocks falling in near perfect synchronization as TLT rallied.

Chart: Stocks vs bonds

This suggests that the sell-off in stocks was collateral damage from the move in bonds, NOT necessarily a bearish development outright for stocks.

With all of this in mind, we need to look at what the bond market is currently doing for signs of where things are headed.

Remember, it was Treasuries that forced the Fed to act. And it was Treasuries that forced the sell-off in stocks last week.

So, what precisely did the Fed do?

We’ll address that in tomorrow’s article.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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