Rabu, 30 Juni 2021

The Fed's BIG Bluff... Part 3

Money & Crisis

June 30, 2021

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The Fed's BIG Bluff... Part 3

IMPORTANT UPDATE FROM JAMES ALTUCHER

StocksThe media will blame the volatile markets on anything from the coronavirus to the election…

But something more sinister is causing them to swing up and down…

One former hedge fund manager claims it has everything to do with the computers on Wall Street…

He explains everything in his short video here.


Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

Over the last two days, I’ve been outlining how the Fed “spooked” the bond markets into believing it will move to crush inflation sometime in the next 18 months.

By quick way of review:

  1. The Fed did NOT actually taper its Quantitative Easing (QE) program.
  2. The Fed did NOT actually raise rates.
  3. The Fed issued a verbal intervention to force bond yields lower.

The Fed has clearly decided it is willing to stomach higher inflation in the near-term to sustain the bubble in stocks and economic recovery. So, it doesn’t actually want to curb inflation as in the actual rise in the cost of living for Americans.

No, all the Fed wants is to make the long-term bond markets believe that it will move to stop inflation sometime in the future.

Why Does the Fed Want to Do This?

Because long-term bond yields represent the “growth expectations” against which stocks are priced.

Put simply, if long-term Treasury yields are higher, say at 5%, then stocks would tend to be priced lower, at roughly 15 times earnings. But if long-term Treasury yields are priced much LOWER, 2% for instance, then stocks will be priced at higher multiples, like 22 times earnings.

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With that in mind, take a look at what long-term Treasury yields have been doing in the last year (red parabola). The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury more than doubled from 1.2% to 2.4% from August 2020 to March 2021.

Now look at what the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has done since the Fed release last week (blue square). Talk about a reversal!

Chart: 30-year bonds

With Treasury yields falling again, this opens the door to stocks being valued in bubble-territory. As economist Edward Yardeni has noted, at 22 times forward earnings, the S&P 500 would be priced around 4,500 by year-end.

Chart: Forward earnings

Things could go even crazier from there.

Provided there isn’t some black swan event, if yields on the long-term Treasury continue to fall to new lows (say 1.5%), this would allow for stocks to go into true “looney tune” bubble territory. We’re talking 5,000 and higher in the S&P 500.

Chart: SP upside

Even if we don’t see stocks get to that height, the door is open to a spectacular crash all based on the Fed’s bluff.

I’ll explain why in tomorrow’s article. Until then…

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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