Dear Money & Crisis Reader, As I outlined in yesterday’s article, the odds are relatively high that President Trump will secure a second term courtesy of how the legal system handles contested elections. With that in mind, we need to ask, “What is the BIG PICTURE outcome for the markets if Trump wins?” I believe that if President Trump manages to secure a second term, the stock market will go into an ENORMOUS bubble. Why? Because President Trump is OBSESSED with the stock market. He mentioned it 52 times on his Twitter account this year alone. That’s more than once a week! Why this obsession? Because the president knows it’s a simple measure of wealth, that appeals to the average person. Talking about boosting incomes or reducing wage disparities sounds nice. But they’re vague concepts. Saying “stocks are at record highs!” is a specific measure that anyone can understand and interpret to mean “people are getting rich.” The president, for all his flaws, understands sales. And by talking about stocks non-stop, he’s “selling” Americans on the idea that he is creating wealth. (Even if the reality is the market is rising because the Fed is providing record amounts of liquidity.) President Trump and the Fed Speaking of the Fed, President Trump now effectively decides Fed policy due to his constant bullying via his very same Twitter account (and its 87 million followers). Case in point… take note of how the president hounded the Federal Reserve to ease monetary conditions non-stop throughout 2018. The below tweets are two of literally dozens in which the president harangued the Fed to ease conditions. When the Fed was slow to act, the President even went so far as to float the idea of FIRING Fed Chair Jerome Powell and leaking the plan to Bloomberg. I do not expect any of the above issues to change during a Trump second term. If anything, I would expect President Trump’s obsession with stocks to be ever greater. And this means even more pressure on the Fed to create a bubble. Again, I’m NOT saying this is a good thing. Nor am I saying I like what the president does. I’m simply pointing out how he sees the stock market, and what it means for his attitude towards the ultimate driver of stocks: Fed liquidity. What Would a Second Term Bring? So… if President Trump does win a second term. What would his obsession with stocks mean price wise? |
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