Jumat, 20 November 2020

And the Winner Is...

Money & Crisis

November 20, 2020

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And the Winner Is…

"Warning! The Fed is rigging markets"

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

The market is undergoing a rotation courtesy of the vaccine news.

Rotation is when capital moves from one sector to another. Typically, capital moves from winning industries, to industries that are lagging behind.

In our current market, this would mean money moving from the tech sector, which has been THE market leader since the March lows, into areas like energy and financial stocks: two of the worst performing sectors.

And that is indeed what we saw this week in the markets, with energy (XLE) returning 10%, financials (XLF)returning 3% and tech (XLK) essentially flat.

Chart: XLE, XLF, XLK

THE issue for the markets now is whether or not this trend continues.

If it does, it would suggest the economy will continue to open up. Reflation plays (plays associated with economic resurgence) will become THE market leaders where you want to put your money.

If it doesn’t — if XLE and XLF roll over while XLK begins to rally again — this would suggest the economy will be moving back into lockdowns again. That environment favors tech which is one of the few sectors that can grow when people are forced to stay at home.

Will These Trends Continue?

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some ratio charts for energy vs. tech (XLE:XLK) and financials vs. tech (XLF:XLK).

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A ratio chart is a chart that shows the relative performance of one asset class against another. If Asset Class A, outperforms Asset Class B, then the chart rallies. If Asset Class B outperforms Asset Class A, the chart falls.

Let’s take a look.

XLE:XLK has hit against overhead resistance (red line). I would not have expected this line to break on the first try. So, this is the critical level to watch over the next week or so. If this ratio breaks above that red line, then we are likely entering a period in which energy will outperform tech in the intermediate term (weeks to months).

Chart: XLE:XLK

XLF:XLK has formed a rounded bottom. It too has run into overhead resistance. Here again I would not have expected that line to break on the first attempt. So, this is the line to watch in the next week or so. If this ratio breaks above that red line, then we are likely entering a period in which financials will outperform tech in the intermediate term (weeks to months).

Chart: XLF:XLK

Depending on which way these charts break, we’ll either get a new massive rotation into reflation plays, or a move back into tech plays.

This will determine the overall market’s action for the coming weeks and months. As such it’s where I’m focusing my attention for clues of what’s to come.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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