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Trump's Carrot — and Trump's Stick |
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Dear reader, |
The president appeared before the American people last evening… and talked. |
In his two hands he wielded separate objects. |
In one hand he held a lovely carrot. This he dangled, tantalizingly, before the Iranian government. |
Strike a deal with us soon, said the president, and he would spare Iran's energy and electrical infrastructure. |
There is the way to national recovery. |
In his other hand, the president brandished a stick — more club than stick — with the bark stripped away. |
With this wooden cudgel he pledged to deliver Iran an even mightier smiting than he has delivered to date. |
A Deal You Can't Refuse |
Should the Iranian government fail to come to terms… |
Over the following two to three weeks, the president threatened to return Iran to the stone ages in which it belongs: |
We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong… |
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If during this period of time no deal is made, we have our eyes on key targets. If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously. |
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We have not hit their oil even though that's the easiest target of all because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding. But we could hit it and it would be gone, and there's not a thing they could do about it. |
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Just so. Yet throughout this conflict Iran has displayed a penchant for eye-for-an-eye retaliation — Islam does not turn the other cheek to its foes. |
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"Horizontal" Retaliation |
Iran has likewise taken to "horizontal" retaliation. |
When Israel, for example, aerially assaulted its South Pars natural gas field, Iran lobbed missiles not merely at Israel… but at Qatar's natural gas field. |
Yet to date Iran's retaliation has been largely "proportional." An eye for an eye, yes — but no more. |
Yet if the United States bombards Iran's energy facilities, Iran will likely dispatch bundles of missiles and drones against the energy facilities of America's Gulf allies. |
These include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. |
President Trump is presently concerned about elevated gasoline prices. |
Yet conceive of gasoline prices if several of the Middle East's oil production facilities are partially or substantially wrecked. |
He would have a grand migraine on his hands — while the midterm elections hover above the horizon. |
Incidentally: the oil price increased last evening as the president's address unfolded. |
How Iran, Though Losing, Wins |
Meantime, last evening the president ceded to Iran its central point of leverage. I refer of course to Iran's chokehold upon the Hormuz Strait. |
No longer does he insist that Iran release the chokehold. Let it be the business of those who rely upon Middle East oil, said the president last evening: |
The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait and won't be taking any in the future. We don't need it… |
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And the countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage… They must grab it and cherish it. They can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on… |
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Go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. |
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Yet who will do it? The Europeans? With their toy navies? |
And can the president truly declare victory over Iran… if Iran exercises monopolistic authority over the chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil passes… and demand payment in Chinese yuan to pass through? |
What of American "leadership?" |
Iran exercised no such monopolistic authority before the conflict commenced. |
Thus Iran may potentially emerge from the conflict… though a tactical loser… a strategic victor. |
Trump's Getting Ready to Declare Victory |
Meantime, last evening the president announced the near-completion of his strategic objectives: |
We are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders. That means eliminating Iran's navy, which is now absolutely destroyed, hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before, and annihilating their defense industrial base. |
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We've done all of it. Their navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten. Taken together, these actions will cripple Iran militarily, crush their ability to support terrorist proxies, deny them the ability to build a nuclear bomb… |
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And tonight, I'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion. |
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I have no doubt the United States is issuing Iran a terrible trouncing. The president is almost certainly correct when he claims Iran's navy and air force have been reduced to nonexistence. |
This, and more, is almost certainly true. |
The Iranians Aren't Dumb |
Yet my agents inform me that the Iranians are very shrewd and crafty fellows. They excel in the arts of concealment and deception. |
They heavily deploy decoy missiles and missile launchers, for example. I do not know the number of phantom weapons the United States has exploded — yet I hazard the number is handsome. |
Meantime, I am informed that the Iranians likely relocated their missile and drone production equipment ahead of the conflict. |
Thus many of the factory buildings the United States has bombarded… were likely empty shells. |
And the missiles themselves? Intelligence officials can confirm that merely one-third of Iran's missiles are dead. |
Some two-thirds may therefore live on, likely in concealed underground storage. |
Next we come to Iran's nuclear equipment. |
Don't Be Surprised if Iran Builds a Bomb |
It is very likely that Iran relocated its centrifuges and related equipment central to the production of atomic arms. |
Therefore the American bombs likely missed them. I hazard the atomic apparatus presently inhabits some remote tunnel or tunnels deep within a mountain complex, safely squirreled. |
Iran's partially enriched uranium has likewise — in every likelihood — been similarly dispersed and squirreled. |
And so the aerial bombardment has inconvenienced Iran's nuclear plans. Yet it is likely a mere temporary inconvenience. |
Most importantly, Iran's regime remains intact. Its leadership has been changed, it is true, and dramatically. |
Yet the regime endures. |
Meantime, my men inform me the new leadership is more radicalized than the former leadership, presently over the rainbow. |
Thus they may be even keener to develop atomic arms. |
They may also be convinced of the following: |
That developing atomic arms is the surest means to prevent the United States and Israel from ever assaulting Iran again. |
"It Is Worse Than a Crime, It Is a Blunder" |
Iran has been knocked to the floor, it is true. The Islamic Republic is presently taking the count. |
Yet it will likely regain the vertical. And I hazard its Russian and Chinese benefactors — both geopolitical heavyweights — will help it to its feet. |
That is, the Iranian regime may even emerge more formidable… and sooner… rather than later. |
"Look at us," the Iranian government might gloat, "we, David, took the heaviest punch the mighty American Goliath can throw at us. And we're still standing!" |
The world will take notice. |
"C'est pire qu'un crime, c'est une faute" — "It is worse than a crime, it is a blunder." |
With these words Europe's premier 19th century diplomat, Talleyrand, scolded Napoleon. |
This, after Monsieur Bonaparte had committed an ill-advised political faux pas. |
In initiating conflict against Iran… I pray upon both knees… the United States has executed a mere "crime"... rather than a blunder. |
Yet I cannot escape the lingering fear that it has. |
Brian Maher |
for Freedom Financial News |
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