Around the World in Four CommoditiesSwan Dive — April 22, 2026  Over the past few weeks, markets sank into correction territory, then flipped for a massive V-shaped rally.
The reason? Escalating war news with Iran, followed by a break in that escalation.
But the ceasefire isn’t true peace. And while the stock market had a reflexive pop to new highs, in the real world, things are a bit different.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively frozen shut right now, there have been meaningful moves in the commodity markets – ones that have more far-reaching consequences than the stock market’s recent pop and drop.
Here is how four different commodities have reacted – and what it means for investors in the months ahead: “Doc” Copper Struggles, Even Amid Strong FundamentalsCopper is known as “Doctor Copper.” The honorary degree in economics is based on copper’s price movements.
Prices rally during an expanding economy, thanks to rising demand for piping, wiring and other goods that need the metal. When prices are lagging? It’s usually a sign of slower demand, which can have big implications.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has delivered a multipronged shock to global copper markets.
Since the start of the war, insurance coverage has been withdrawn for any vessel attempting to pass through the Strait, impacting copper prices.
The price impact has been severe. LME copper prices have rocketed past $13,000 per tonne, with analysts warning of a "structural deficit" that could derail global electrification efforts, as approximately 40,000 tonnes per month of high-grade copper cathode flows have been completely blocked from global trade.
Beyond direct shipping disruptions, the closure has triggered a dangerous secondary crisis: a global sulfur and sulphuric acid shortage.
About 20% of global copper supply relies on a process that uses sulphuric acid to leach copper from oxide ores, and with roughly 50% of the global seaborne sulfur supply cut off, sulfur and sulphuric acid markets have become extremely tight.
In response to sulphuric acid scarcity, China has banned exports of the compound, impacting copper production in Chile, which had imported it as a key consumable.
Copper was already structurally tight before the Hormuz disruption, with JP Morgan estimating a supply deficit of 330,000 tons by 2026.
In March 2026, an estimated 500,000 tons of copper were headed to the U.S., against normal monthly imports of roughly 70,000 tonnes, reflecting frantic stockpiling.
Even if a diplomatic resolution reopens the Strait, the logistical "hangover" — the time required to clear tens of thousands of backed-up tonnes and stabilize freight rates — will ensure the impact is felt in corporate earnings well into 2027.
In short, copper’s fundamentals were already strong. The doctor was delivering good news about the economy.
The war with Iran has given it a push higher. And it may be a trend that lasts for long after the war starts, even if there’s some short-term economic slowdown from the Strait’s closure. Fertilizer Shortage: Brace for Higher Food InflationFew sectors have been hit harder by the Hormuz closure than global agriculture, with fertilizer prices surging and threatening the 2026 planting season.
Around one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Nations.
The Arabian Gulf is the central hub for global agriculture, accounting for at least 20% of all seaborne fertilizer exports.
The dependency is even more acute for urea — the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer — with 46% of global trade originating from the region.
This supply is critical for major agricultural economies, including India (18%), Brazil (10%) and China (8%).
Key disruptions include fertilizer-adjacent ammonia, where the removal of Gulf product from global markets is elevating prices worldwide, and urea, where nearly 50% of global exports originate from the region.
Urea prices surged more than 28% within just three weeks of the closure, likely reflecting the concentration of urea and ammonia production in the Persian Gulf.
Overall, global fertilizer prices were estimated to average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis continued. 
The Strait of Hormuz is a key trade route for global fertilizer and related commodities such as ammonia. More than 80% of rice, cotton and peanut producers reported being unable to afford necessary inputs, with southern U.S. farmers particularly vulnerable — only 19% pre-ordered fertilizer, and 78% said they couldn't afford full crop needs.
Even if the ceasefire turns into a peace deal, the damage to spring planting timelines has already been done.
This points to pressure on agricultural commodities and food prices for some time. Continued Below...
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Oil: Bane to the World, Boon to the U.S.The oil market has, naturally, borne the most dramatic impact of the Strait's closure.
The IEA described it as the greatest energy security shock in history. Until the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of global LNG supply.
Amid fears of prolonged supply shortages, oil prices rose faster than during any other conflict in recent history.
Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 — for the first time in four years — rising to $126 per barrel at its peak, marking the largest ever monthly increase in oil prices.
Physical crude oil prices surged to record levels near $150 per barrel, far above futures market prices, with the physical-futures disconnect becoming increasingly acute.
Even steeper gains were seen in refined products, with middle distillate prices in Singapore reaching all-time highs above $290 per barrel.
In early April, shipments through the Strait remained severely restricted, with loadings averaging around 3.8 million barrels per day, compared with more than 20 million barrels per day in February ahead of the crisis. 
Global shipments of oil and natural gas remain at a standstill, which spells challenges for European and Asian countries. (Source: USEIA) Dallas Fed modeling suggests that if the Strait reopens after three quarters, oil prices could reach as high as $132 per barrel by year-end, with global real GDP growth potentially falling 1.3 percentage points for the full year.
Saudi Arabia has attempted to divert some exports via the Red Sea port of Yanbu, but pipeline capacity limits make this only a partial offset to a disruption of this unprecedented scale.
In the meantime, the more interesting story is that oil prices haven’t risen as much in the U.S.
That’s because America produces enough of its own oil – and we even have some for export right now. And President Trump has made it clear America is open for business.
America could see a mini oil boom as other countries look to acquire oil from safer regions in the world.
Domestically-based U.S. oil stocks could have decent returns from here if oil prices stay higher for longer, thanks to expanded profit margins. Rare Earths: The Defense Wild CardThe Hormuz closure has compounded an already fragile rare earth supply chain, layering geopolitical stress on top of existing structural vulnerabilities.
The strait has had a surprising importance in vital mineral supply chains, including rare earth oxides and the fragile logistics networks that modern industrial economies depend on.
Critical mineral mining and rare earth element processing have been disrupted by both the destruction of energy assets in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait itself, with the U.S. defense industry facing "near total" disruption to critical minerals supply through the waterway.
Compounding this, China's own export controls have created a second front.
China has hiked rare-earth prices by 45% this month, and analysts expect volatility in dysprosium and terbium oxides throughout 2026, with premiums favoring Western-aligned supply.
The U.S. Department of Defense has established a floor price of $110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium — a 70% premium to previous spot prices — triggering corresponding price momentum in heavy rare earth elements.
China's rare earth export controls have created urgent strategic demand for ex-China critical minerals capacity, though copper supply deficits, central bank gold demand and critical minerals demand continue to underpin markets broadly. 
The U.S. still relies heavily on rare earth elements from China, which has raised prices following a disruption to its access to Iranian oil. (Source: Statista) Setting up and qualifying new rare earth supply relationships takes 18 to 36 months from first contact to operational readiness, meaning no short-term fix exists.
That’s a structural vulnerability that neither policy commitments nor procurement plans can truly shorten. And it could limit the U.S.’s ability to wage further war, given the use of rare earth metals in defense components.
As with other commodity-based companies, the story in rare earths is largely the same – domestic producers are likely to be long-term winners here. No matter what new headlines drop in the on-again/off-again war with Iran.
~ Andrew Packer P.S. Tomorrow on Grey Swan Live!, Zoltan Istvan joins us to discuss how the constantly evolving AI revolution could reshape every major asset class along the way.
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