Dear Reader,
This is Dylan Jovine with Behind the Markets.
Happy Monday.
Today is Monday the 27th.
Yes, I am still wearing my Twilight Zone hoodie.
I have to wash it and take it off — I think today's the last day — but I can't get enough of it.
It makes me smile every time I put it on.
Today I want to share a line from a Bank of America note by their analyst Michael Hartnett that really caught my attention.
Pulling the Camera Back
"Geopolitics is now driven by the need to monopolize commodities. Who owns the chips, rare earths, minerals, and oil wins the AI war."
Read that again.
Who owns the chips, rare earths, minerals, and oil wins the AI war.
I bring this up because we've been talking so much about the micro — company A, company B, what Elon is doing, which chip stocks are soaring…
But I find it very helpful as an investor to pull the camera back and reset on the big picture of what is really happening here.
There Is Only One Chess Board
Everything happening in the world right now is playing out on one chess board, with two main players.
The United States and China.
The Middle East is a small chess board.
Venezuela is a small chess board.
But every piece being moved on every one of those smaller boards is being moved to benefit one of these two countries.
Period.
No ifs, ands, or buts about it.
Winston Churchill called this the “Great Game” — great power competition playing out across every corner of the world.
In his day it was England versus Germany.
Today it is America versus China.
Why Trump's Moves Make Sense on This Board
A lot of what this administration has done looks confusing or controversial in isolation.
Renaming the Gulf of Mexico.
Going into Venezuela.
The war in Iran.
When I first heard about renaming the Gulf, I thought — what is going on?
But there are critical resources in the Gulf of America right now that are central to winning the AI war.
Which is why the extended Continental Shelf project pushed out our borders and gave us a claim to an estimated $500 trillion in new resources.
Very, very important stuff.
Venezuela and Iran — The Oil Connection
China has been feasting on cheap, sanctioned oil from Iran and Venezuela for a very long time.
When we sanction a country, China swoops in and buys their oil at a deep discount.
That lowers China's cost of doing business and allows them to grow faster.
By taking control of those oil taps — just like we've quietly controlled Iraq's oil for years, where all Iraqi oil flows through US entities — we raise China's costs, slow their economic growth, and disincentivize them from moving on Taiwan.
And disincentivizing China from moving on Taiwan is the whole point.
Because Taiwan is the AI war.
90% of the world's advanced semiconductors come out of Taiwan.
Whoever controls Taiwan controls the future.
On Iran Specifically
I know a lot of people don't support the war.
I want to be clear — I am not a warhawk.
War is young kids on a battlefield crying for their mothers.
I understand that deeply.
But I also think about what it means to allow a regime that openly swears death to America to acquire nuclear weapons.
The Soviet Union had mutually assured destruction as a deterrent — they didn't want to die any more than we did.
That calculation doesn't apply the same way with a regime that views martyrdom as a reward.
So yes, there are complicated human costs here.
But the alternative — a nuclear-armed Iran with Chinese backing — is a cost I am not willing to accept for our children and grandchildren.
The Big Picture for Investors
Here is what all of this means practically.
America is running a global strategy to control the critical inputs to the AI war — oil, chips, rare earths, minerals.
Every controversial foreign policy decision is a move on that one big chess board.
And once you understand the chess board, you start to see the opportunities.
We are working on a new report that takes you behind the scenes on exactly this — the resources, the strategic moves, and how American citizens can actually own a piece of what is being unlocked right now.
We will be releasing it soon.
Stay tuned.
And while you're waiting, you need to read my special report about gold - and how it really belongs on that list of critical commodities too.
Central banks dumped US Treasuries and bought gold at the fastest pace in 58 years last year.
They are making the same calculation we just talked about.
Hard assets win.
I've identified one specific stock I think captures the most upside from what's coming — a company sitting on one of the largest undeveloped gold deposits in the world, still trading at a fraction of what those ounces are worth.
Read: The End of the Gold Cartel Here>>>
Anyway, that's all I have for you on this Monday.
Happy Monday.
I will see you tomorrow.
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