 | Source: Arab Center Washington DC |
| Over the weekend, there has been a huge escalation in the Middle East. The U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran. They targeted military sites, crucial infrastructures, and regime leaders. The Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei has been killed. So were other high rank political and military leaders. In return, Iran has launched a series of strikes against Israel, U.S. bases in the Middle East, and Gulf states. Hezbollah also launched strikes that triggered Israel's response in Lebanon. Let's explore the broader impacts of this operation and possible outcomes of it. | Reasons for the attack | There are different reasons for these strikes. But the ultimate goal is to stop the regime's threat, once and for all. The talks on the nuclear program failed. The regime pursued its repression against its own citizens during the protests. The goal is now a strategic capitulation. The U.S. and Israel want to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and its missiles capabilities. They also want to cut off Iran's influence and support towards its proxies in the Middle East (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, militias in Iraq, …). To do that, they need the regime to collapse. This is why they target the Guide, the mullahs, the revolutionary guards and of course the crucial capacities. | | | Regional security situation | Obviously, the operation had immediate effects. Iran retaliated against Israel and the U.S. military bases in the area. These strikes have been quite dispersed throughout the Middle East and largely intercepted. But still, there have been victims across the region and many Gulf states were targeted. | The geographic scope of violence has therefore widened beyond Iran. Gulf states that long positioned themselves as hubs of stability now face exposure to threats. Places like Dubai, Bahrein, or Oman have been hit, which is quite unusual. Most of these states usually act as mediator and do no seek direct confrontation. There are now facing attacks on their soil. This raises dilemmas for their leaders. Should they retaliate and bring further escalation to the conflict and risk being seen as fighting alongside Israel? It also raises questions for foreign leaders. Indeed, these states count quite a large proportion of expats, whose security must be guaranteed. They also have defense agreements, like France and the UAE for example. More states could be dragged in due to security or economic interests. For now, states like France, Germany and the UK remain cautious. They said they are ready for defensive actions only. The EU and UN are pushing for de-escalation and transition in Iran to avoid more instability in the region. | Impact on the energy sector | The prospect of an oil shock threatening global economy has resurfaced. This is the result of the threats on the strategic Strait of Hormuz. About 30 thousand commercial ships cross the Strait each year. Shipping loads include crude oil and LNG from Gulf states, refined products, petrochemicals, etc. It is a crucial route for the energy sector as 20 to 25% of seaborne oil trade and 20% of LNG passes through the strait. Main customers include China, India, South Korea, and Japan. But this vital artery is now closed and at least 3 ships have been attacked. | Due to this closure, the global benchmark for oil prices jumped 10%. Natural gas prices also surged as much as 25%. But for now, the prices are not particularly high and there is no full oil crisis mode approach. The scale and duration of the conflict will be crucial. If tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored, or if there are damages on oil infrastructures in the region, the prices could exceed 100 USD per barrel. | In the meantime, a small fraction of the crude could be redirected as Saudis have a pipeline that spans the country to its Western coast on the Red Sea. The UAE also has a pipeline towards the Gulf of Oman. This allows to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But it is clearly not enough. | China, relying heavily on the Gulf for its energy supplies, is urging to stop the conflict right now. | Polarized reactions in the U.S. | In the U.S., the strikes have triggered polarized reactions. In politics, most Republicans back Trump and the strikes. Democrats do not regret the Guide's death. But they do criticize the lack of formal congressional approval. They also warn about the risk for American troops in the region and of a broader regional war. | Public opinion is also divided in the same ways. Part of it is wary about another endless Middle East conflict that could require a broader U.S. intervention and risks for the American troops there. There is also defiance against Trump, these strikes being at the opposite of his campaign's statements on foreign interventions. | What about Iranians? | In Iran, reactions are also polarized. Part of the population celebrated the Guide's death and seeks a regime change. They support the Shah's son return. Part of it also would also like a regime change but is more silent, fearing repression. But another part of the population is fully supportive of the regime and now seeks revenge for the Guide's death and the strikes. This part strongly opposes the U.S. and Israel. | | The current situation in Iran must be analyzed with caution. The Guide's death and that of high ranked leaders does not mean the regime has fallen already. Mullahs and their supports will not be defeated overnight. And even they were, the polarization will remain a threat. The pro-regime part of the population will likely retaliate. Plus, the nuclear capacities are dispersed and hardened. The revolutionary guards' corps will likely not drop weapons and Iran's proxies either. So, the success and rapidity of this operation is uncertain. But also, if it succeeds, the post-regime transition will be crucial. As we have seen in other countries like Iraq or Libya, regime falls often comes with high levels of instability if not properly managed. There will be high needs in terms of political and economic transition. But also, in terms of security. Pro-regime individuals, potentially remaining mullahs and revolutionary guards with resentments will have to be contained to avoid further destabilization. Plus, let's not forget that political and social instability is also a breeding ground for terrorism. | Decoding geopolitics isn't a job. It's survival. | Joy | |
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