The oil story ends when the ceasefire comes. The gas story doesn't.
Two machines in Qatar just broke. Your gas bill will feel it for the next five years. | On March 18th, Iranian missiles hit Ras Laffan Industrial City — a complex on the Persian Gulf coast that liquefies natural gas and ships it to the world. Two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains were destroyed. Those are the massive machines that compress gas until it becomes liquid. Without them, you can't ship the gas. You can't ship the gas, and the world gets less of it. | I can't stop thinking about this. | Everyone is watching oil right now. Brent crude is moving. Trump is talking. The headlines are all about whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open. I get it. Oil is the story everyone knows how to tell. But oil prices can recover in weeks when a ceasefire comes through. LNG trains take three to five years to rebuild. This is different. | NASDAQ Ticker FASF Reserved: Final Days to Invest in Coal's 'Rockefeller Moment' at $7.77/share | | With the NASDAQ ticker FASF reserved and land purchased for their flagship coal reformation facility, Frontieras is hitting massive milestones at a rapid pace. | This positions the company for potential valuation impact as they reform coal into $2.1T worth of high-value commodities with their patented FASForm technology: | | You have until April 9 to invest at $7.77/share.* | | Here's what worries me. The two machines that went down handle about 12.8 million tonnes of gas per year. That capacity is gone. Not paused. Not delayed. Gone until the mid-2030s at the earliest. And here's the part nobody is connecting: ExxonMobil owns a stake in both of them. American shareholders are directly exposed to this damage right now. The stock hasn't priced in the full rebuild timeline. Most people don't know there even are LNG trains, let alone that two of them are rubble. | I don't think most people realize how long the delay between the destruction and the pain actually is. The gas market runs on long-term contracts. Price shock doesn't hit your utility bill next month. It hits six months from now. Eighteen months from now. When the long-term deals reprice and the spot market catches up. By then, the Middle East will be off the front page and nobody will connect the bill to the strike. | Nearly $8 trillion has piled into money market funds right now. That's the big "dash for cash" move everyone is proud of. Safe harbor. Smart money. But those funds are earning three to four percent while the real inflation from this gas shortfall is still on its way. Sitting in cash right now might feel like wisdom. It might turn out to be early. | Nobody knows how long the fighting lasts. Nobody knows exactly when the rebuild contracts get signed. Those are real uncertainties and I won't pretend otherwise. What I do know is that 12.8 million tonnes of annual gas capacity doesn't just come back on its own. It gets rebuilt with engineers and cranes and years of work. That process starts when the shooting stops. We are not there yet. | The number worth repeating: 12.8 million tonnes. That's the gas that won't ship this year, or next year, or the year after. Hold onto that number when someone tells you the crisis is over. | The oil price will ease. Trump will make a deal or he won't. The Strait will reopen or it won't. Those are the stories everyone will cover. But somewhere in Qatar, two broken machines are setting your energy bills for the rest of the decade. The headlines will have moved on long before the damage reaches your wallet. | More on this tomorrow. | — Lauren Editor, American Ledger | *Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Frontieras's Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.frontieras.com/ | Reservation of the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that we will be listed on the NASDAQ. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. | Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. |
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