What Changed? | For most of 2025, the corporate conversation is about rates, refinancing, and "higher for longer." But a different pressure point is getting louder in boardrooms: tax provisions that quietly turn timing decisions into earnings events. | This is less about Congress passing a headline corporate rate hike and more about effective-rate drift. When deductions, credits, and cross-border rules shift at specific calendar lines, the income statement can move even if demand doesn't. | This Week's Briefing: The market is used to watching the Fed. In 2026, more CFOs are watching the tax calendar the way they watch maturities: as a hard constraint that changes reported results and the hurdle rate for new investment. | | A David Among Goliaths in the Lithium Gold Rush | | Energy giants like Exxon and Chevron have been buying up land in America's lithium hotspot. | Now they've got a new neighbor. | EnergyX just acquired 35,000 gross acres of high-grade lithium resources in Arkansas' Smackover Formation, right next to Exxon and Chevron's projects. | What's really turning heads about this move is that EnergyX isn't just competing for lithium-rich land. Their patented technology can recover up to 3X more lithium than traditional methods. That combination positions EnergyX to be one of the biggest lithium producers in America. Plus, General Motors has already invested along with other global leaders like Eni and POSCO. | Great timing too, because the demand for lithium is projected to 18X current production by 2040. | You can claim a stake in the lithium boom too. Join 40,000+ people as an early-stage EnergyX investor today. | *Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for EnergyX's Regulation A+ Offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.energyx.com. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. | | The Numbers | Here are the cliff edges that matter most for planning and reported profitability: | International effective rates were scheduled to rise in 2026 under pre-2026 law design, as key deductions tighten and minimum-tax mechanics bite harder. Bonus depreciation rules are still a live planning lever, and recent interim guidance underscores how "placed-in-service" and contract dates can determine whether expensing is available. The corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) remains a 15% book-income backstop for "applicable corporations," creating scenarios where book earnings and cash taxes diverge in uncomfortable ways. The 1% excise tax on stock buybacks is now supported by final regulations, reducing ambiguity but reinforcing that payout policy has a tax wedge.
| | Why It Matters | Tax-policy cliffs behave differently than higher interest expense. Rates pressure everyone with debt. Tax cliffs pressure specific business models: multinationals with intangible income, capital-intensive firms timing large projects, and companies that rely on buybacks to manage per-share optics. | That distinction matters for earnings quality. A higher effective tax rate is not an "operating miss," but it still lands in EPS. And when tax outcomes hinge on timing (place assets in service, accelerate or defer income, adjust supply-chain structures), the gap between "economic profit" and "reported profit" widens. | It also matters for capex. The after-tax cost of investment is a real hurdle rate input. When expensing is less certain, or when minimum-tax frameworks reduce the value of deductions, marginal projects don't just get delayed. Some get repriced, shrunk, or relocated. | For investors, the signal to watch is not political theater. It's reconciliation of effective tax rates: guidance language, footnote changes, and cash-tax disclosures that reveal whether tax is becoming a durable drag rather than a one-off. | | Takeaway | The Fed still sets the weather. But taxes can set the microclimate. In 2026, the next corporate squeeze may come from effective rates drifting higher and deductions becoming less dependable, turning "tax planning" into a measurable P&L variable. | — Lauren
Editor, American Ledger | Resources | Internal Revenue Service, January 2026
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-26-11.pdf | Internal Revenue Service, January 2026
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-prior/i4626--2025.pdf | Congressional Research Service, November 2024
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47846 | Bipartisan Policy Center, April 2025
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/the-2025-tax-debate-gilti-fdii-and-beat-under-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/ | Congressional Research Service, 2024
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47397 |
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