Stocks Up Last Week After Flurry Of Economic News, NVIDIA Earnings On Tap This Week Stocks closed mostly higher on Friday, with all of the major indexes up for the week. Big day in terms of news on Friday. First, the advance estimate for Q4'25 GDP came in at 1.4%, well below Q3's pace of 4.4%, and the consensus for 2.8%. Although, much of that miss was attributed to the record-long (43 days, 10/1 – 11/12) government shutdown. Stocks were modestly lower in pre-market activity. And dipped a bit more following the news. Then came the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (for December), and it showed headline inflation up 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.2% pace and views for the same. The y/y rate came in at 2.8%, in line with estimates, and up from last month's 2.7%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 0.3% m/m as well vs. last month's 0.2% and forecasts for the same. The y/y rate was at 2.9%, up from last month's 2.8% and expectations for 2.8%. While it was a bit higher than expected, the reaction was muted. And then we heard from the Supreme Court on President Trump's use of the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) to impose tariffs. In short, the court said the IEEPA statute does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs. The court did not make a ruling on refunds for the IEEPA-imposed tariffs paid by the plaintiffs. Stocks turned positive on the news. It should be noted that the SCOTUS did not exclude any other statutes at the President's disposal to impose tariffs, namely Section 301 (trade retaliation), 232 (national security tariffs), 201 (safeguard tariffs), 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (balance-of-payment tariffs), and 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (discriminatory tariffs). The President came out later in the day and announced his Administration would impose a "10% global tariff" (under Section 122, which can last for up to 150 days unless Congress acts to extend, and be as high as 15%), "over and above our normal tariffs already being charged." "And we're also initiating several section 301 and other investigations to protect our country from unfair trading practices of other countries and companies." Stocks firmed up during and after his press conference. When asked about the potential for issuing refunds, given the court made no mention of that, the President said "I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years." (Note: on Saturday, President Trump upped the global tariffs to 15%, "effective immediately.") It was a busy week last week. Between Friday's news, earnings, all of the other reports during the week, not to mention the first week of the new partial government shutdown, and increased tensions with Iran and a possible strike looming, the markets held up exceptionally well. But that shows the resiliency of the economy, the strength or corporate America, and the U.S. consumer. We'll get more earnings this week with as many as 1,077 companies in queue to report. But earnings season 'officially' ends on Wednesday, 2/25, when NVIDIA reports after the close. Another good showing could potentially reset the AI trade, putting it back on the right track and dispelling the notion that AI is in a bubble. But we'll get plenty of other big name, non-tech companies on deck to report this week as well. Most of the indexes are within striking distance of their all-time highs. A little bit of good news could see them breakout to even higher highs in the near offing. See you tomorrow,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research | 
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