sport football: The Week Ahead

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

The end of last week was extremely noisy with potential red flags popping up in Private Credit and Claude risk coming for cybersecurity companies. Tbh, the overarching negative view towards private credit seems far too draconian and sensationalized. The view, however, on what Claude could do to high-earning white collar professionals is quite dark and seems more in the realm of possibility. There's a new Citrini piece that lays out how the AI bull case can ultimately become a societal bear case. More on that below, so let's get into it.

Here's a look at earnings this week.

Monday: Hims & Hers, Domino's, ONEOK, Dominion Energy, Diamondback Energy
Tuesday: Home Depot, MercadoLibre, Planet Fitness, CAVA, Keurig Dr Pepper, AMC, HP, Fidelity, Workday, American Tower
Wednesday: NVIDIA, TJX, Salesforce, Lowe's, Snowflake, Heico, Trip.com, Zoom, Urban Outfitters, Synopsys
Thursday: Dell, Cheniere Energy, CoreWeave, J.M. Smucker, Celsius, Compass, Duolingo, Intuit, Sempra, Autodesk, Block

Here's a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

Monday: Factory orders (0.2%)
Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index 20 cities, Wholesale inventories (0.2%), Consumer confidence (87.5%)
Wednesday: 2-Year FRN Auction, 5-Year Note Auction
Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000)
Friday: Producer price index (0.3%), Core PPI (0.4%), PPI y/y, Core PPI y/y, Construction spending Nov. (0.4%) Construction spending Dec. (01%), Chicago Business Barometer PMI

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Earnings Corner 💸

$WMT ( ▼ 1.51% ) Top and bottom line beat as U.S. comps rose 4.6% and e-commerce surged 27%, driven by faster store-fulfilled delivery, marketplace growth, advertising, and continued share gains among higher-income shoppers trading into Walmart's convenience and value offering. management issued conservative guidance ($2.75–$2.85 vs. $2.96), citing a still "unstable" consumer backdrop with pressure on lower-income households and cautious discretionary spending, sending shares lower despite the strong quarter.
$BABA ( ▲ 0.12% ) Beat on revenue and earnings as AI-driven enterprise demand pushed Cloud growth back to 13%, international commerce surged 32% on cross border expansion and domestic retail showed early signs of stabilizing as domestic spending improved.
$W ( ▲ 2.34% ) Beat on revenue and EPS as it returned to annual growth for the first time since 2020 as higher order volumes and rising average order values reflected improved customer acquisition, loyalty program traction, and share gains among value-focused shoppers in a still weak furniture market. The higher sales lifted EBITDA, but the stock fell as management warned margins may dip below 30% as it invests further to accelerate growth.
$FUN ( ▲ 3.75% ) Revenue beat at $650M vs. $610M, EPS missed sharply as attendance fell 13% on fewer operating days, weather closures, and the elimination of winter holiday events, alongside a smaller season pass base. Spending per guest improved 8%, but merger-related costs and attendance dragged on profits, meaning the comeback now depends on rebuilding traffic and reducing debt.
$DE ( ▲ 0.07% ) Revenue beat (up 13%), yet EPS missed as margin pressure persisted. Construction and small ag demand strengthened on higher shipments and improving dealer orders, even as large ag remained pressured by weak crop prices and tariffs. Deere raised guidance, reinforcing a cycle bottom as aging fleets and AI upgrades spark replacement demand, sending shares higher.
$LYV ( ▲ 3.31% ) Beat on revenue at $6.31B vs. $6.1B while EPS missed as lower margins, higher venue investment, and rising depreciation weighed on profitability. The beat was driven by 12% Concerts growth on international and stadium demand, with Sponsorship up 17%. Early 2026 ticket sales are pacing double digits higher with most large shows already booked, reinforcing forward momentum.
On The Move 📈 📉

Crowdstrike $CRWD ( ▼ 7.95% ) , Cloudflare $NET ( ▼ 8.05% ) , Zscaler $ZS ( ▼ 5.47% ) , Sailpoint $SAIL ( ▼ 9.45% ) , and Okta $OKTA ( ▼ 9.18% ) took big hits after Claude unveiled Claude Code Security, an AI-powered tool that does vulnerability scanning.
Klarna $KLAR ( ▼ 5.56% ) cratered after earnings despite posting its first $1B+ quarter, as a $26M Q4 loss and slowing growth sent the stock starkly.
Comfort Systems $FIX ( ▲ 6.46% ) jumped after posting a strong Q4, with revenue up 41.7% to $2.65B, EPS more than doubling to $9.37, and operating margin expanding to 16.1%, sending shares to a new 52-week high.
Chemours $CC ( ▼ 16.51% ) slid after posting a wider Q4 net loss of $47M and adjusted EBITDA down to $128M on 2% lower revenue of $1.3B.
CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 8.12% ) tumbled after reports that Blue Owl failed to secure $4B in debt for a planned Pennsylvania data center.

IPO Roundup 📍

Cross River Bank, backed by KKR and Andreesen Horowitz, is exploring an IPO after reportedly selecting lead underwriters. The fintech-focused lender generated $516.6M in revenue last year but saw profits fall ~35% to $24M.

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Today's Headlines 📖🍿

OpenAI is reporting targeting $600B in total compute spend in 2030, per The Information, including $11B more in cash burn through 2030. The Company expects to hit $280B in revenue in 2030, but obviously the cost is quite steep.
- OpenAI is also reportedly finalizing its first commitments for its $100B mega round, and planning technology such as smart speakers that cost $200 to $300, but may also include smart glasses and a speaker
Tariffs Reversal: Following the Supreme Court striking down many of Trump's levies, he's announced a new 15% global tariff would take place immediately. This would exclude existing deals, prior partnerships, and carve-outs for critical sectors.
Cantor Fitzgerald has reportedly been buying rights to potential tariff refunds for 20 to 30 cents on the dollar. A prior report from WIRED had found the Lutnick family bank had put through a trade representing about ~$10mm of IEEPA rights
Blue Owl has been spooking private credit investors after electing to stop withdrawals/tender offers at one of its wind-down funds. The poor phrasing and decision has led to a broader private credit selloff, even as Blue Owl is winding down the fund via asset sales/loan repayments. Given private credit has set maturity deadlines, there is a much more clear path to when principal repayments will take place, although refinancing relief is subject to risk related to PIK, LME, or stress within a private-equity company backed company - particularly in the middle market software space. Blue Owl sold $1.4B in direct lending assets at 99.7 cents on the dollar. According to Blue Owl, the return of capital distribution will be paid by or before March 31, 2026, and to be up to $2.35 per share or approximately 30% of OBDC II's NAV.
- Saba Capital has publicly announced to buy Blue Owl BDCs at a 20% to 35% discounts, taking advantage of the negative Blue Owl headlines to try to buy non-traded BDCs from retail at steeper discounts.
Ed Garden is building a stake in Fortune Brands and calling for a new CEO; privately nominating a new slate of director candidates.
JPMorgan lines up $5B+ software financing: JPMorgan is preparing a ~$5.3B debt package to support Qualtrics' acquisition of Press Ganey, split between a multi-billion-dollar leveraged loan and additional bonds or private credit. The deal will gauge investor appetite for software LBO risk amid AI-driven sector volatility.
Apollo sees more Software pain: Apollo's David Sambur warns that Software valuations need a "much needed reset". Apollo has zero software exposure in its PE business and <2% across its entire platform, according to Sambur.
- "Have we had groupthink where you've got 30% or 40% of buyouts being in software? In retrospect, it was a pretty big red flag."
Citrini's Warnings: Citrini Research laid out an extremely negative case where the S&P falls 38%, unemployment hits 10.2% and AI dramatically disrupts lending credit conditions and the world we live in. The argument starts around the worry that if AI displaces high-earning white-collar jobs, then the velocity of money circulating across the U.S. economy will have severe knock-on effects.
AWS dealt with a 13-hour disruption after its AI deleted existing code. AWS engineers have seen instances of AI driving small outages, but Amazon insists these were user error driven.
Centerview has settled a lawsuit with a former analyst before a trial was set to begin Monday.
First Citizens is looking for deal targets to grow over a key $250 billion asset threshold
HGGC closed a $3.2B Fund V, exceeding the initial $2.5B target and $2.8B hard cap. The fund is focused on MM technology, business services, financial services, and consumer enterprise companies.
HSBC cut off 10% of its US DCM team, as the firm pivots to more profitable Asian units. This impacted at least 6 employees.
Private equity loses momentum: Fund returns averaged 5.8% from 2022-3Q25 vs. 11.6% for the S&P 500, sale proceeds fell 21% last year despite a 5% rise in exits, and fundraising dropped 11%.
PE-owned Ivanti's Connect Secure suffered repeated China-linked breaches after engineering cuts, prompting US agencies to remove the software as revenue slipped to $906M and the company pursued a distressed debt exchange.
Walgreens layoffs are taking place as part of a $1B cost-cutting initiative following the take-private by Sycamore. This includes 600+ middle management and back office functions.

M&A Transactions💭

Prisma Medios de Pago, developer of payment gateway intended for electronic commerce, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $5.0B by Visa (NYS: V). Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Novartis India (BOM: 500672), an Indian-based pharmaceutical company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for INR 14.46B by ChrysCapital. EV/EBITDA was 20.44x and EV/Revenue was 5.63x.

Eucalyptus, operator of digital healthcare clinics, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.15B by Hims & Hers Health (NYS: HIMS).

BK Japan Holdings, operator of a fast food restaurant chain, was acquired for JPY 76.8B by The Goldman Sachs Group.

Ajis (TKS: 4659), engaged in the provision of inventory services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 24.584B by Saito Holdings. EV/EBITDA was 6.37x and EV/Revenue was 0.67x. Nomura Holdings advised on the sale.

Acro Group, engaged in the construction and improvement of large-scale projects, was acquired for ILS 3.1B by Israel Canada (TAE: ISCN). EV/EBITDA was 10.74x and EV/Revenue was 5.56x.

Downtown Music Publishing, operator of an independent record label and music publishing company, was acquired for $775.0M by Virgin Music UK. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭

ZaiNar, developer of an automatic location tracking platform, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding led by AME Cloud Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $900.0M.

Uala, provider of digital financial services, raised $195.27M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Taalas, developer of an AI-based software counterpart semiconductor chip, raised $169.0M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Code Metal, developer of an AI-powered automation development platform, raised $125.0M of Series B venture funding led by Salesforce Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $1.13B.

Qstem, operator of a biotechnology company, raised $2.2B of Seed funding led by FuturePlay.

Odds of the Day 🍒

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 29% chance of 14-16 inches of snow in NYC:

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