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| Market News: | SCOTUS struck down Trump tariffs on Friday Trump fires back: 15% tariffs, effective Monday EU may freeze US trade deal approval on Trump tariff "chaos" Trump confirmed he's "considering" limited military strikes on Iran to pressure nuclear talks The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is now approaching the Middle East Blue Owl anxiety rattles the $1.8 trillion private credit market Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was "concerned" that private credit risks may have migrated into the regulated financial system Bitcoin is down 26% YTD and has lost over 47% from its October 2025 high of $125K Copper is up +1.75% on structural AI and electrification demand Investors Who Missed OpenAI and Nvidia Are Watching This One Closely* (ad)
| | What a weekend. Seriously. | If you blinked between Friday and Sunday, you missed a Supreme Court bombshell, a military buildup in the Middle East, a private credit meltdown, a GDP miss, gold crossing $5,150, and the most anticipated earnings report in years sitting right around the corner. | Here's what happened, why it matters, and what you need to watch heading into this week. | | | | | Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs |  | President Donald Trump (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) |
| Key Points: | The federal government could owe $175B in tariff refunds The court ruling does not mean tariffs disappear. U.S. Customs hasn't updated its system yet, so importers are still paying the now-illegal duties Chatham House analysts noted Trump's angry response to the ruling is itself creating new uncertainty for businesses trying to plan ahead
| On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump's sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs, imposed under the IEEPA, were illegal. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the decision in a measured, deliberate 10-minute delivery. Two Trump appointees, Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, joined the majority. The ruling was based on the finding that taxation is clearly a congressional authority, that IEEPA doesn't mention the word "tariffs," and that no previous president had ever used IEEPA to impose tariffs. | The reaction from the White House was anything but measured. | Who do you trust more to protect America's economy right now? | |
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| | | | | | Trump Response: 15% Tariffs | | Key Points: | The 15% tariff took effect at 12:01 a.m. Monday, February 24 The 150-day clock means tariff policy could flip again by July India delayed U.S. trade talks, and the EU Parliament trade committee vote on a U.S.-EU deal is now uncertain
| Trump didn't wait long. He announced he would raise global tariffs on imported goods to 15% after the Supreme Court struck down his previous trade measures, revising an earlier plan for a new 10% worldwide tariff and triggering immediate concern from governments and markets worldwide. | Here's the legal backstory. Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 does allow the president to impose tariffs up to 15%, but only for 150 days, unless Congress agrees to extend it. So we're on a clock. | Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research put it plainly: the market didn't react much because this was already anticipated. But the uncertainty for businesses is real. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told CNN: "It's really tough to plan strategically for talent, investment and technology when you don't know what the rules are going to be." |
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| | | | | | Iran: The Clock Is Ticking | | Key Points: | Secretary of State Rubio meets Netanyahu on February 28 to discuss Iran options Russia's Lavrov warned a U.S. strike could risk a "nuclear incident," raising the stakes significantly Oil fell on "deal hopes," but any breakdown in talks could reverse that fast
| The U.S.-Iran nuclear standoff escalated sharply over the weekend. Trump said he's "considering" limited military strikes to pressure Tehran. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group moved closer to the Middle East. Poland issued an emergency travel warning telling its citizens to leave Iran immediately. | But here's what's keeping this from being a full-blown panic: Iran's Foreign Minister said a draft deal proposal could be ready "in the next two to three days." Geneva talks resume this Thursday. | Prediction markets are showing a 64% chance of a U.S. strike on Iran by March 31. The next 10 days are critical. | What happens first in the Iran standoff? | |
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| | | | | | Blue Owl & The Private Credit Market | | Key Points: | Blue Owl's $OWL ( ▼ 4.8% ) stock is down 54.5% over the last 52 weeks, the worst streak since it went public 23 out of 32 rated BDCs have unsecured debt maturing in 2026, totaling $12.7 billion, a 73% increase over 2025. The SEC has designated private credit as a top examination priority for 2026
| This one hit retail investors hardest. Blue Owl Capital (NYSE: OWL) announced on February 19 that it would permanently stop allowing quarterly redemptions from its flagship retail fund, OBDC II. Instead, it would return roughly 30% of the fund's net asset value to investors by late March. $OWL plunged as much as 10%, hitting a two-and-a-half-year low, with contagion spreading to Ares Management and Blackstone, both dropping 5–6%. | The bigger issue? This exposes a structural flaw: you can't easily offer "semi-liquid" products backed by completely illiquid loans. Mohamed El-Erian compared it to the Bear Stearns credit fund freeze of 2007. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was "concerned" that risks from Blue Owl may have migrated to the regulated financial system, given that one institutional buyer in its loan sale was an insurance company. |
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| | | | | | GDP Missed. Badly |  | TradingEconomics |
| Key Points: | Markets are pricing in at least 2 Fed rate cuts in 2026 A weaker economy puts more pressure on software-heavy private credit borrowers, linking this directly to the Blue Owl story The weak dollar (DXY at 97.3) and gold above $5,150 are both responding to this growth concern
| Q4 2025 U.S. GDP grew at a 1.4% annualized rate. The estimate was 2.5%. That's not a small miss. Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP missed estimates, rising at an annualized rate of 1.4%, lower than the Dow Jones estimate of a 2.5% increase. Trade war uncertainty, light hiring, and weak capital investment were the main culprits. | For everyday investors, this matters because slower growth usually means more pressure on corporate earnings and a higher likelihood the Fed cuts rates, which is a mixed bag depending on what you own. |
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| | | | | | Gold & Silver: The Quiet Breakout |  | TradingEconomics |
| Key Points: | Silver is outperforming gold. That's historically a sign of broader industrial and speculative demand layering in The dollar falling while gold and silver rise = classic flight from paper assets Social media is buzzing with #Silver100, retail traders calling for $100 silver this year.
| Gold held above $5,150 per ounce through the weekend, driven by safe-haven demand, Fed rate-cut expectations, and the fact that China's central bank just extended its gold purchases for the 15th consecutive month. | But silver stole the show. It surged 6% to $87.30 per ounce on Monday, one of its biggest single-day moves in years. | The Silver Institute says 2026 will mark the sixth consecutive year of supply shortfalls, a deficit of 67 million ounces expected. That's a structural story. |
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| | | | | | Nvidia Earnings: Feb 25 | | Key Points: | A guidance beat above $75B for Q1 FY2027 would be a major catalyst for the broader tech sector Loop Capital's most bullish call on the street projects FY2027 EPS at $9.56 vs. Street consensus of $7.76 China sales remain at zero, any change there would be a massive surprise to the upside
| Wednesday, February 25, after the close, Nvidia reports Q4 FY2026 earnings. Every investor and Wall Street desk is watching. | Consensus expects ~$65.87B in revenue and $1.53 EPS, roughly 67% and 72% YoY growth respectively. Polymarket traders are pricing a 94.5% chance Nvidia beats the EPS estimate. | Hyperscaler capex for 2026 has been revised up to $680B across Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Oracle, the demand backdrop is the strongest it's ever been. | But here's the thing: expectations are sky-high. $NVDA ( ▲ 1.02% ) trades at 46x earnings. Any hint of a slowdown and the reaction could be brutal. |
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| Bottom Line | This wasn't a "one news story" weekend. | Tariffs are legally reset but practically unchanged. Iran has a deadline before the situation shifts from diplomatic to military. | Private credit just showed its first real cracks. GDP growth is slowing. And Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday could reset sentiment for the entire AI trade. | Weekends like this are exactly when having a clear framework matters more than reacting to headlines. | Stay focused. Stay informed. | | Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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