What Changed? | Mortgage rates eased in early 2026, but the resale market still doesn't "clear." Homeowners who locked in sub-4% mortgages during 2020–2021 face a large payment jump if they move, so many simply don't. That keeps listings thin even as demand stays price-sensitive. | The contradiction is that affordability pressure is high, yet prices remain firm in many markets because turnover is still unusually low. Builders can offer incentives to create a deal at the margin, but the existing-home market can't replicate that flexibility at scale. | | White House Insider Drops Trump Bombshell | A former advisor to the CIA, the Pentagon and the White House just released… | This shocking new expose of Trump's plans for 2026. | Every American patriot deserves to see this… | Because if this man is right… | 2026 could not only be a milestone for America… | But it could also be the biggest wealth building year of your life. | Click here to see the details because something huge is happening in May. | | The Numbers | 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.06% (Freddie Mac, week of Jan. 15, 2026); 7.04% a year earlier Existing-home sales: 4.35 million (SAAR) in Dec. 2025; median price $405,400 Inventory: 1.18 million homes; 3.3 months' supply (Dec. 2025) Rate lock-in: 52.5% of mortgaged homeowners have a rate below 4% (Q2 2025) Builder response: 65% used sales incentives; 40% cut prices, average cut 6% (Jan. 2026) Mobility: 2.1% moved to a different state and 8.9% moved within the same state in 2024
| | Why It Matters | Housing lock-in is a real-economy constraint because it limits movement, not just homebuying. When resale inventory sits near a 3-month supply, households have fewer workable options to relocate for a job, right-size for life changes, or move closer to family support. That kind of friction shows up quietly, as slower labor reallocation and fewer "fresh starts" for household balance sheets. | It also reshapes consumption. Instead of the classic "sell, move, refurnish" cycle, more owners choose "stay, renovate." Harvard's Joint Center expects homeowner remodeling outlays to reach about $524 billion in early 2026. That supports contractors and materials, but it's a different growth mix than broad turnover-driven spending across services and durable goods. | Finally, the split between new and existing supply matters for macro plumbing. If builders are doing more of the market-clearing through incentives, the economy becomes more dependent on new construction capacity, lot availability, labor supply, and financing channels. The resale market remains the missing transmission mechanism. | | Takeaway | Lock-in doesn't need a crash to matter. It slows mobility, redirects spending toward maintenance, and keeps the economy from adjusting as smoothly as it should. Housing is still a bottleneck—and the cost is flexibility. | — Lauren
Editor, American Ledger | Resources | Freddie Mac, January 2026 https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms | National Association of Realtors, January 2026 https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-5-1-increase-in-december | National Association of Home Builders, January 2026 https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/01/builder-sentiment-loses-ground-at-start-of-2026 | U.S. Census Bureau, September 2025 https://www.census.gov/topics/population/migration/guidance/acs-1yr.html | Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, October 2025 https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/remodeling-expected-continue-slow-steady-growth-next-year |
|
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar