Goldman Isn't Bullish Enough on Gold

Here's why $13K gold is on the table.

View or listen in browser February 4, 2026 Goldman Isn't Bullish Enough on Gold Dear Subscriber, By Sean Brodrick The record-setting rally in precious metals unwound sharply, with gold and silver plunging on Friday.  But that wasn’t enough to deter gold bulls at major banks. In fact, JPMorgan took the opportunity to raise its year-end forecast, saying it expects the yellow metal to reach $6,300 a troy ounce. “While the dust has yet to fully settle from last week, it has not derailed our structural bullish view on gold,” analysts at JPM said. “This long-term rally in gold has not and will not be linear.” JPMorgan isn’t the only one. Deutsche Bank is sticking to its bullish stance, maintaining its view that gold will reach $6,000 an ounce by year-end. Bank of America has the same target. UBS raised its target to $6,200. Goldman Sachs brings up the rear, calling for $5,400 gold by December. In other words, Goldman expects gold to mostly go sideways in 2026. But there is dissension even at the big banks. At JPMorgan, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou says that, over time, gold could reach $8,000 to $8,500. Panigirtzoglou’s reasoning goes beyond the usual suspects of central bank buying, tight supply, de-dollarization and geopolitical upheaval.  Instead, he points to long-neglected retail investors. The analyst says private investors currently allocate around 3% to gold.   If that share rises to 4.6% over the coming years as investors swap a portion of their portfolios from bonds to gold, “[this] 4.6% allocation to gold would imply a theoretical price of $8,000-$8,500,” he writes. That’s pretty good, but not far enough. $10,000 Gold — Or Higher! I recently raised my own price target on gold to $10,000 an ounce.  Along with the urgent and persistent fact of central bank buying … The ugly truth of global de-dollarization … And the insurmountable twin mountains of the U.S. deficit and debt … There’s the simple fact: During the last rate-cutting cycle that started in 2007, the price of gold tripled. We’re in a rate-cutting cycle now. There’s no reason to think this one will see a weaker performance in gold.  If anything, it is likely to be stronger. Am I deterred by gold’s pullback? That’s not an end. That’s just a pause.  Heck, over the weekend, legendary mining investor Rick Rule pointed out that in the 1970s, the gold price fell three times by 30% or more. What’s more, from 1971 to 1975, gold increased 6x, from $35 to $200. In 1975, gold fell from $200 to $100. Mr. Rule added: “Everyone shaken out at $100 missed the move to $850 by 1980.” So, no, I’m not worried about this pullback.  But Panigirtzoglou’s math makes me think that not only is Goldman Sachs not bullish enough, but JPMorgan might also not be. And even I might not be bullish enough. That’s because in a bull market, everything is exaggerated.  And looking back, gold's allocation among private investors peaked at roughly 7% during the 2011-2012 bull market.  If gold were to return to that historical high today, the implied price would exceed $13,000 per ounce! Does that mean gold must go to $13,000 an ounce? No, but it’s on the table. Speaking of Goldman Sachs, the big Wall Street bank recently pointed out that gold ETFs account for only 0.17% of U.S. private portfolios.  Goldman estimates that every 1 basis point (0.01%) increase in this share raises the gold price by 1.4%. I took Goldman’s analysis and figured that if retail investors allocated just 1% of their portfolios to gold ETFs, it would raise gold's price by 116%! So, yeah, I believe $10,000 is a good target for gold in this rally.  It may go higher. And pullbacks can be bought. What You Should Do If you’re underexposed to gold, consider buying the iShares Gold Trust (IAU). It holds physical metal.  And if you want LEVERAGE to the gold price, consider the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). It’s more volatile, but the payoff could be huge. Here’s a two-year performance chart of the IAU (which tracks gold) and the GDXJ …   You can see that the junior miners have more than doubled gold’s performance over the past two years.  But they also got hammered much harder in the recent pullback. As I said, there’s more volatility in the miners. But both miners and the metal should head much higher. All the best, Sean P.S. Of course, there are better ways to take advantage of this historic rally. And with the recent pullback, the window to do so is wide open.  I explain it all here … and exactly how to play it. Follow us:   11780 US Highway 1, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33408-3080, USA Would you like to edit your e-mail notification preferences or unsubscribe from our mailing list? Copyright © 2026 Weiss Ratings. All rights reserved.