Investors are panicking about U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, despite a minor sell-off in recent days, this often-forgotten asset is soaring... It's up double digits on the year while U.S. stocks have dropped 9%.
Editor's note: Amid all the mayhem in stocks and changing news on tariffs, you might have overlooked a big move higher in one particular asset...
Today, we're sharing an essay with all the details from our friend Brett Eversole at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research. It published in the April 10 edition of Stansberry's free DailyWealth e-letter. And as Brett explains, the recent type of surge in this asset has historically been a sign of more upside ahead.
Additionally, please note the markets and our Chaikin Analytics offices will be closed tomorrow, April 18, for Good Friday. So we won't publish our Chaikin PowerFeed e-letter. We hope you enjoy the long weekend. And you can expect to receive your next issue on Monday, April 21.
Investors are panicking about U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, despite a minor sell-off in recent days, this often-forgotten asset is soaring...
It's up double digits on the year while U.S. stocks have dropped 10%.
Of course, I'm talking about gold. Investors haven't paid much attention to the metal in recent years. After all, why worry about a boring safe-haven asset when stocks are soaring?
Now, that dynamic has changed completely.
Gold isn't just holding its own... It recently skyrocketed, even as stocks collapsed to near bear market levels.
That has led to the biggest outperformance we've seen in years. And according to history, that's a good sign for gold and stocks.
The expert who predicted the Lehman collapse in 2008 and this year's sell-off just issued what he calls the most urgent warning of his career. He says "Liberation Day" was just the beginning. What comes next is all written down in black and white... It has gone "viral" in the hedge-fund circles... and yet practically nobody on Main Street understands the "Mar-a-Lago Accord." He lays out all the proof... plus a detailed plan for exactly what to do. (And it doesn't require shorting... options... or perfectly "timing the market.") You must see this new warning today.
Trump has promised that tariffs will bring jobs back to America. But the dark truth is, factories will soon be filled with a different kind of worker – one that doesn't unionize, get health care, or collect a traditional paycheck. Experts say this may accelerate a trend that could cost 300 million people their jobs, changing our economy and society for good. Get the full story here before it's too late.
Gold Is Crushing Stocks... And That's Good for Both Assets
Gold was a quiet winner in 2024. The metal jumped 27%, beating the S&P 500 Index. But since stocks were rising, too, few investors were paying attention.
That has changed now... because gold just soared, even while stocks fell.
Recently, gold catapulted about 15% higher in three months. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped around 15% over the same time frame.
That means gold outperformed stocks by about 30 percentage points in that recent three-month span. That's a rare and impressive feat.
The chart below shows that three-month rolling return difference between the S&P 500 and gold. When the reading is below zero, stocks are outperforming. When it's above zero, gold is outperforming.
Take a look...
As the chart shows, we haven't seen gold outperform at this rate since 2020... In fact, gold has only hit that level a handful of times over the past 25 years.
To see what this might mean going forward, I ran the data back even further. We've seen 18 similar setups since 1972 – which means this tends to happen once every three years. But these cases have been darn bullish for gold going forward...
Gold has been a fantastic long-term investment ever since the gold standard ended in the early 1970s. The metal is up about 8% a year since then. But you could do better after setups like we have right now...
Similar setups led to 3.2% gains in six months and 15.3% gains in a year. That's about double the typical one-year return. And it means that the gold boom isn't likely to end anytime soon.
Now, the interesting thing is that the individual results varied a lot. There were some big winners and big losers. But gold was up a year later more than 60% of the time... So the odds are good that gold will keep rising.
Not only that, but this bullish setup for gold isn't a bad sign for stocks. The S&P 500 was up 11.1% a year after these extremes... which is a solid outperformance versus buying and holding over the same period.
So, this outperformance extreme tells us two things: 1) Gold can keep soaring from here... and 2) we shouldn't give up on U.S. stocks. They could reverse and get back on track soon as well.
Good investing,
Brett Eversole Editor's note: At DailyWealth, Brett and his Stansberry colleagues share insights like this each weekday morning that the markets are open. And this e-letter is 100% free to read – just like the PowerFeed. If you aren't already a DailyWealth reader, learn more about signing up for it right here.
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-1.72%
1
23
6
S&P 500
-2.22%
43
308
153
Nasdaq
-3.02%
6
64
30
Small Caps
-0.96%
149
1221
525
Bonds
+0.56%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Real Estate
+1.56%
Utilities
+1.33%
Consumer Staples
+1.07%
Materials
-0.69%
Financial
-1.48%
Industrials
-1.69%
Health Care
-1.78%
Energy
-3.23%
Communication
-4.38%
Information Technology
-4.88%
Consumer Discretionary
-5.78%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas Equipment Services
0
10
22
Over the past 6 months, the Oil & Gas Equipment Services subsector (XES) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -20.83%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #18 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 3 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AESI
Atlas Energy Solutio
ARIS
Aris Water Solutions
CLB
Core Laboratories In
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
APA
+3.22%
ABT
+2.76%
TRGP
+2.76%
DVN
+2.7%
NEM
+2.51%
Losers
JBHT
-7.68%
IPG
-7.44%
AMD
-7.35%
OMC
-7.28%
NVDA
-6.87%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Q1
$1.91
Beat by $1.14
CSX CSX Corporation
Q1
$0.34
Missed by $-0.03
KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Q1
$0.34
Missed by $-0.02
USB U.S. Bancorp
Q1
$1.03
Beat by $0.05
PGR The Progressive Corporation
Q1
$4.65
Missed by $-0.13
* * * *
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