Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, But On Pace To Close Higher For The Week

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Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, But On Pace To Close Higher For The Week

	Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
	Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, But On Pace To Close Higher For The Week Stocks closed lower yesterday, erasing about a third of Wednesday's record gains, while keeping the lion's share of those gains intact. As you know, Wednesday's announced 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries (except China) sparked a huge relief rally. But the fact remains that there's a 10% tariff on virtually every trading partner. And the trade escalation with China (they have an 84% tariff on us, and we have a 125% tariff on them) has shown no signs of easing yet. As negotiations begin, and more importantly as they're completed (one by one), that will help paint a bigger picture on what the post-90-day pause will look like. But the wildcard remains China. If trade escalations turn into a trade war (one could argue we're already in one with them), that could override (at least in the short-term) the goodwill the pause brought. In other news, yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI – retail inflation) came in better than expected. The headline number actually fell -0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.2% and views for 0.1%. The y/y rate eased to 2.4% vs. last month's 2.8% and estimates for 2.6%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 0.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.2% and expectations for 0.3%. The y/y rate ticked down to 2.8% vs. last month's 3.1% and the consensus for 3.0%. A great report that showed progress on inflation continuing. Today we'll get another look at inflation with the Producer Price Index (PPI – wholesale inflation). The last PPI report showed annual core inflation down two-tenths of a percent at 3.4%. Today's report, however, is expected to show the core rate tick up two-tenths of a percent to 3.6%. That comes out at 8:30 AM ET. Yesterday, we also got the Weekly Jobless Claims report. It was up 4,000 at 223,000, just under the 225K estimate. Today, in addition to the PPI report, we'll also get Consumer Sentiment. An important report given that roughly 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending. And a happy and confident consumer is generally one that spends. At the moment, all of the major indexes are up for the week. And it won't take much to keep it that way. If so, it would be a nice reprieve, given that the previous 6 out of 7 weeks have been down. A little bit of positive tariff news, or a better-than-expected PPI report, could certainly help. Best, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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