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Markets continue to simmer nicely as futures edge ahead of a feast of earnings from corporate heavyweights. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are enjoying their longest winning streak of 2025, with investors' appetite growing after last week's tariff tensions eased. Let's dig into today's market buffet! Plus, try your luck and win a $50 Amazon Gift Card! 🎁
- Dan
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- Canada's new PM Carney says old relationship with US "is over"
- Pakistan preparing to challenge India's suspension of water treaty, minister says
- India shuts over half of Kashmir tourist spots in security review
- South Korea's top court to rule on Lee Jae-myung's election law violation case on Thursday
- France won't hesitate to restore UN sanctions on Iran if no deal is reached
- Modi congratulates Carney on Canada election win as tensions ease
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| Chef's Pick: Chevron Corporation (CVX) |
Chevron offers stability amid market volatility, trading at a 10% discount to its five-year P/E average. With a 5% dividend yield and projected 15% annual EPS growth through 2027, it's positioned for a rebound. Its integrated global operations and strong free cash flow—$21B even with oil at $50—add resilience. Though challenges include Hess deal uncertainty, Venezuela disruptions, and green energy pressures, analysts see 22% upside, supported by low capital intensity and high margins. New drilling plans in Namibia and West Africa further strengthen long-term potential. (Current price: $139.30, Analyst expectation post earnings: $160) |
First 100 Days Market Casserole: President Trump's first 100 days have featured record highs followed by tariff-induced drops, with the most recent delay helping stocks recover. As this milestone passes, the position is for continued volatility with a mix of earnings-resilient companies and those benefiting from trade negotiation progress. Energy Sector Value Platter: Energy stocks "have already priced in a recession," according to Roth Capital Partners' Michael Darda, who notes this is "the only sector with double-digit upside to normalized earnings estimates." Historically, investors who bought energy stocks during the 2008 and 2020 downturns profited handsomely in subsequent years. Big Tech Capex Soufflé: Microsoft and Amazon's upcoming capital expenditure announcements will provide crucial insights into AI infrastructure spending trends. Recent reports suggest both companies may be cutting back on AI investments, with potential ripple effects throughout the tech ecosystem and broader economy. Auto Tariff Relief Sampler: The Trump administration set out to provide tariff relief for automakers, preventing "stacking" of levies on foreign-made cars and allowing reimbursement for tariffs on parts up to 3.75% of a US-made car's value. Position in automakers and suppliers that could benefit from these adjustments. VIX Cooling Dish: The market's "fear gauge" has dipped below 25 for the first time since April 2, suggesting investor anxiety is moderating during the five-day winning streak. While still elevated above the 20 "normal" threshold, this cooling trend may provide opportunities in previously oversold quality stocks. |
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Market Whispers: Trade Deals or a Head Fake? |
Are we really seeing trade deals—or just the illusion of progress? The White House is expected to roll out what it claims are breakthroughs with India and South Korea. But behind the curtain, analysts warn, these aren't your classic, years-in-the-making trade pacts. Instead, we may see short-term "understandings" or memoranda that serve more to delay sectoral tariffs than remove them. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that India may be the first in line. South Korea could follow. But political turmoil in Seoul and minimal commitments from New Delhi suggest there's more smoke than fire. The real aim? To pause or quietly drop the 25% tariffs announced April 2, without calling it a reversal. Could that be enough to calm jittery markets? Maybe. A framework with South Korea could involve LNG deals or shipbuilding partnerships. With India, expect more talk than action. Yet, investors are watching for clues that tariffs will become more selective, easing the global growth blow. But here's the twist: this isn't the end. New probes into semiconductors, pharma, lumber, and more mean fresh sectoral tariffs are coming. There's even buzz of a second 25% hit on auto parts by May 3—potentially stacking to 50% on $460 billion worth of imports. And China? The 145% tariffs still stand. Trump says talks are happening. Beijing says they're not. Until that changes, China appears ready to absorb short-term pain, waiting for clarity on where this high-stakes game is headed. So, are these "deals" the start of real trade diplomacy—or just political theater? Markets may like the headlines, but the real story is still unfolding. |
USD - Goods Trade Balance: -142.8B (previous: -147.9B)
- Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m: 0.6% (previous: 0.3%)
- S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y: 4.6% (previous: 4.7%)
- HPI m/m: 0.3% (previous: 0.2%)
- JOLTS Job Openings: 7.49M (previous: 7.57M)
- CB Consumer Confidence: 87.7 (previous: 92.9)
- API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Major earnings expected Tuesday: - Coca-Cola: Beverage giant reporting amid consumer spending concerns
- General Motors: Automaker stock rose as Trump considers tariff relief measures
- Pfizer: Pharmaceutical company facing ongoing challenges
- Visa Inc.
- Novartis AG
- HSBC Holdings plc
- Booking Holdings Inc.
- S&P Global Inc.
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Woodside Approves $17.5B US LNG Project: Australian energy company made final investment decision on Louisiana LNG plant targeting first shipment in 2029. Project represents largest direct foreign investment in Louisiana history and will cement the US as world's biggest LNG supplier, likely pleasing Trump administration's call for countries to buy more American energy. India Probes Amazon and Flipkart: Financial crime agency seeking data from smartphone players, including Apple and Xiaomi, as part of e-commerce investigation. Queries come as India and the US near a trade deal, with protectionist e-commerce regulations part of discussions. Apple Shifting iPhone Assembly to India: Tech giant plans to move assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as next year amid trade war pressures. Strategy aims to source entirety of 60+ million annual US iPhone sales from India by the end of 2026, pivoting away from China faster than investors appreciate. Hedge Funds Return to Bank Stocks: Goldman Sachs reports funds buying financial firms after eight straight weeks of selling, making them the second-most net bought stock behind real estate this year. The move follows major US banks' Q1 earnings reports. Porsche Cuts Profit Outlook Over Tariffs: Luxury carmaker now projects return on sales to fall to as low as 6.5%, down from previous guidance of at least 10%. The company particularly exposed to Trump's trade moves due to lack of US factory presence. ECB Official Warns of Trade War Impact: Board member Piero Cipollone stated a global trade war could lower both economic growth and inflation in the euro zone with "unambiguously recessionary effect" on countries involved. Comments strengthen case for further ECB rate cut in June. Russia Closes 62 Miles of Black Sea Beaches: The Country shut about 100 kilometers of coastline after a December fuel spill resulting in environmental damage claims of $1 billion. As many as 141 beaches in Anapa and nine in Temruk area will remain closed during summer season due to health risks. PwC Partners Ordered to Cut Ties With Brokerage: Nearly 300 US partners instructed to sever relationships with Black River Management after internal investigation. Tiny brokerage had been promoted internally for years as providing access to lucrative investments, causing consternation at the highest levels of the accounting firm. Trade War May Lower Euro Zone Growth: ECB's Cipollone warned conflict could reduce both economic expansion and inflation, strengthening the case for June rate cut. The official also highlighted risks of a more fragmented world, including possible erosion of the US dollar's safe haven status. |
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RAD Intel: 1600% Growth. Pre-IPO Shares. Last Chance Before May 8. |
This hyper-growth startup surged from $5M to $85M* — and it's still climbing fast, even in a shaky market. And insiders are piling in. RAD Intel helps Fortune 1000 brands like Hasbro, Sephora and MGM actually understand their buyers in real time — not guess. It's AI that works. It's pre-IPO. And it's solving a multi-trillion dollar problem. RAD's proprietary AI-driven platform teaches brands how to "read the room" — showing why content connects, who it resonates with, and what to say next. Brands stop guessing and start delivering ads that actually land. This company is on fire — and shares are just $0.60. With backing from Adobe, Fidelity Ventures, and over 6,000 investors (including insiders from Google, Meta, Youtube, and Amazon), RAD Intel is quickly becoming the ONE to watch. 1600% Growth. $0.60 Shares. Your Move. 👉 Invest by May 8th. |
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Leggett & Platt (LEG ⬆️ 17%): Manufacturer surging after reiterating FY2025 guidance despite mixed Q1. Management noted potential benefits from Trump's proposed tariffs while warning they could also dampen consumer confidence. Revenue guidance of $4.0-4.3B is slightly below consensus, but adjusted EPS of $1.00-1.20 topped expectations. Noble (NE ⬆️ 10%): Offshore drilling contractor advancing after mixed Q1 results with 37% Y/Y revenue growth and reaffirmed FY2025 outlook. Company secured approximately 15 rig years of new contracts worth an estimated $2.2-2.7B, pushing backlog to $7.5B and improving visibility through 2030. Wolfspeed (WOLF ⬆️ 15%): Semiconductor manufacturer extending rally after Monday's 26% surge. Sharp gains likely result of "short squeeze" where heavily shorted stock rises suddenly, forcing short sellers to buy back shares to cover positions. General Motors (GM ⬇️ 3.1%): Automaker falling after withdrawing 2025 profit guidance, citing uncertainty, despite potential tariff relief from the Trump administration's planned restructuring to prevent "stacking" of levies. Ford (F ⬇️ 0.5%): Legacy auto manufacturer edging lower despite initial gains on Trump's expected tariff policy changes that would eliminate charging companies for multiple levies simultaneously, including those on steel and aluminum. Tesla (TSLA ⬇️ 0.5%): EV maker slipping ahead of Trump's auto tariff announcement. While the company doesn't import cars to the US, it still faces tariffs on imported parts that could be affected by policy changes. Coca-Cola (KO ⬇️ 0.1%): Beverage giant slightly lower ahead of earnings. Analysts expect EPS of $0.72 (flat from the previous year) on revenue of $11.16B (down from $11.30B) as Americans reduce spending amid inflationary pressure and recession fears. JetBlue (JBLU ⬆️ 1%): Airline rising ahead of earnings despite peers reporting domestic demand slowdown. Company remains heavily exposed to US market with analysts expecting Q1 loss of $0.63 per share on sales of $2.14B. Pfizer (PFE ⬆️ 0.1%): Pharmaceutical company inching up before earnings report. Analysts expect EPS of $0.67 on sales of $13.9B as the company faces a challenging recovery with stock at 2012 levels after dropping an obesity drug candidate over liver damage concerns. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI ⬇️ 7%): Chip company sliding on leadership shakeup despite solid Q1 and positive Q2 guidance. CEO Kurt Sievers stepping down by year-end, with Rafael Sotomayor becoming President immediately and CEO in October. Q2 guidance includes adjusted EPS of $2.46-2.86 versus $2.63 consensus. BP (BP ⬇️ 4%): Oil giant slipping after Q1 results missed profit estimates with non-GAAP EPS of $0.53, $0.03 below expectations. Revenue of $46.91B, down 4% Y/Y, still beat consensus by $7.03B. The company expects upstream production to remain steady in Q2 with higher seasonal volumes in customer business. Nvidia (NVDA ⬇️ 0.2%): AI chip leader dipping after Monday's 2.1% decline on report that Huawei plans to test its Ascend 910D AI chip (styled as answer to Nvidia's H100) with Chinese customers. Upcoming big tech earnings seen as next catalyst as investors watch for potential data-center spending pullback. Meta Platforms (META ⬆️ 0.4%): Social media giant edging higher ahead of Wednesday's earnings report alongside Microsoft (MSFT ⬆️ 0.4%). Apple and Amazon both up 0.3% in premarket ahead of Thursday reports. |
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ETF Gainers: Tradr 2X Long APP Daily ETF (⬆️ 5.83%) Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SOFI ETF (⬆️ 4.67%) Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF (⬆️ 4.61%) GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (⬆️ 4.33%) GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (⬆️ 4.29%)
ETF Losers: Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SMCI ETF (⬇️ 4.48%) T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (⬇️ 4.24%) 2x Solana ETF (⬇️ 4.16%) Leverage Shares 2X Long NVDA Daily ETF (⬇️ 4.13%) Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares (⬇️ 4.11%)
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For more information and to verify the accuracy of the claims made in this email, please consult the following reliable sources: - Dollar Struggles to Recover Materially Amid Tariff Uncertainty (Barron's)
- Stock Futures Rise; the Market's Winning Streak Is on Track (Barron's)
- Canadians Vote in Election Dominated by Concerns About Trump (Reuters)
- Pakistan Preparing to Challenge India's Suspension of Water Treaty, Minister Says (Reuters)
- India Shuts Over Half of Kashmir Tourist Spots for Security Review (Reuters)
- South Korea Top Court to Rule on Lee Jae-myung's Election Law Violation Case Thursday (Reuters)
- France Won't Hesitate to Restore UN Sanctions on Iran if No Deal, Says Foreign Minister (Reuters)
- India Queries Apple and Xiaomi on Data Practices (Yahoo Finance)
- Woodside Gives Final Nod to $17B LNG Project (Yahoo Finance)
- Hedge Funds and Venture Firms Back in the Market (Yahoo Finance)
- Porsche Cuts Profit Outlook on US Sales Decline (Yahoo Finance)
- Trade War May Lower Global Growth Outlook (Yahoo Finance)
- Trump Auto Tariff Relief Planned Within First 100 Days in Office (Seeking Alpha)
- Biggest Stock Movers Tuesday: NXPI, LEG, and More (Seeking Alpha)
- Russia Shuts About 62 Miles of Black Sea Beaches After Oil Spill (Bloomberg)
- Apple and Nvidia's $300B Bet on AI Chips (Financial Times)
- Trump's Economic Message Divides Wall Street (Financial Times)
- Modi Congratulates Carney on Election Win as Tensions Ease (Bloomberg)
- CapEx in Focus for Microsoft and Amazon Amid AI Pullback Concerns (Bloomberg)
- Buy Chevron Stock: Why It's a Top Pick (Barron's)
- America's Factory Era Isn't Coming Back (Barron's)
- Trade Deals: What to Watch (Barron's)
- Today's Top Stock Market Movers (Barron's)
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Good luck! |
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* This is a paid offering for RAD Intel made pursuant to Regulation A Round and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The company valuation is determined by RAD Intel. Please review all offering materials before making an investment decision. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.radintel.ai. *** When you buy through this link, Mode may earn a commission. |
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