Mutiny on the Markets

April 28, 2025 Swan Dive — April 28, 2025 Mutiny on the Markets Addison Wiggin On this day in history in 1789, just three weeks into their voyage from Tahiti, the crew of the HMS Bounty seized their ship and set their tyrannical captain adrift. For all its drama, the epic tale resonates even today. Consider the media narrative kicking us off this Monday morning: investors are staging a mutiny from Trump tariffs. The S&P 500 is still down 6.1% this year, while the MSCI World ex-USA is up 8.8% — the worst relative start for U.S. stocks in 32 years. But here's a twist: Despite headline hysteria, the S&P 500 has closed higher three weeks in a row. And it’s clawed back half of the total losses between its all-time high in February and last month’s lows. In the wildest of years, 23% of trading days have seen a 2% move either way, the most since 2022. April is on track to become the third most volatile month ever, behind only October 2008 and March 2020. ⚙️ Tariffs Bite Hard Trump’s 100 days have been a masterclass in market whiplash. Early April’s tariff blitz tanked the S&P 10% in two days — only to spark a relief rally when duties were delayed. Uncertainty is now America's main export product. Manufacturing sentiment has cratered to 9/11 levels. The knock-off empires created by Shein and Temu have hiked prices ahead of new small-package taxes, giving shoppers an early taste of the trade war's bite. Trump's Secret Social Security Plan?  Social Security is in crisis.  In less than 10 years, it could run out of funds — leaving retirees devastated.  But former White House Advisor Jim Rickards says Trump’s next move could fix the system — and unleash a surprise wealth wave for investors.  “It’s better than Social Security… it’s Social Prosperity,” Rickards says.  And for those who prepare now?  It could mean turning a crisis into a once-in-a-lifetime payday. For the full story, click here. 📱 Apple’s Great Escape Shifting iPhone production out of China was supposed to take nearly a decade. Apple just did it in one year. The company now makes 20% of its iPhones in India— $ 22 billion worth — and plans to export most U.S.-bound phones from there by next year. While D.C. scrambles, Cupertino sails for safer ports. 🏛️ America Drifts Alone Japan is talking tougher. China is cozying up to new partners. Allies are hedging, not helping. Even as Trump floats tax cuts for workers making under $200,000, economic data expected this week could show the first quarterly contraction of his term. The empire is losing leverage fast — and everyone knows it. 🗳️ Northern Winds: Canada Decides Today, Canadians vote. Mark Carney’s Globalist Liberals face off against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Polymarket, the betting site that correctly forecast President Trump’s swing-state sweep in 2024, show an 80% chance of a Carney win – a reversal of where the odds stood at the start of the year. Results start trickling in after 7 p.m. Eastern. Even Canadian politics have been animated by mild political disturbances in their neighbors to the south. 🌞 Musk's Texas Empire and a Solar Future Elon Musk is pulling up stakes. Announcing he'll step back from his DOGE office to refocus on Tesla (badly needed after a 44% YTD plunge), Musk's growing Texas empire now includes SpaceX, X, The Boring Company, Neuralink, and X.AI. Starlink’s 7,000 satellites already run entirely on solar and batteries. Musk sees a blueprint: "Eventually, it might be like 90% or more of all power on Earth will be solar panels with batteries." If space can do it, Earth can too. 🚀 Google’s Hidden Rocket Boost Alphabet blew past first quarter earnings estimates, with Google Cloud revenue up 28% and YouTube ads up 10%. But the real kicker? An $8 billion paper gain from a mystery private investment — later revealed as Elon Musk’s SpaceX. As Alphabet quietly rides Musk’s rockets, it’s a reminder: in this market, it pays to have friends in high orbits. 🪙 Crypto's Big Bet: SoftBank Goes All In Masayoshi Son is back in the bitcoin game. SoftBank is teaming up with Tether, Bitfinex, and Cantor to launch 21 Capital, a $3 billion bitcoin juggernaut, soon to go public via SPAC. SoftBank alone is kicking in $900 million at $85,000 per coin. Son famously lost $130 million buying bitcoin at the top in 2017 – a lofty $17,000 at the time. This time? There's no quick exit. It’s one of tech’s biggest risk-takers going all-in... again. Earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon, plus critical U.S. economic data, will hit this week. Hope for calm — but prepare for fireworks. Tariffs, layoffs, price hikes: the pressure's rising fast. Surviving the mutiny was just the beginning. Now comes the storm. – Addison P.S. Don’t miss Grey Swan Live! this Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11 am EST. Mark Jeftovic joins us for a crucial deep dive into the fate of the U.S. dollar — and the new digital forces that could reshape the global monetary system faster than we have been forecasting. Paid members will surely enjoy this animated conversation. As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.) How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. (Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.) Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com

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