Forecast for Your Stocks Over the Next 21 Trading Days
History says stocks look good long-term, but what about in the short run? Here's how we project next month's moves with our A.I.-powered system.
Forecast for Your Stocks Over the Next 21 Trading Days
It took more than 500 days of trying, but now the S&P 500 Index has finally notched a new all-time high, climbing alongside the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 Index.
The question now is: What does this milestone mean for the stock market going forward?
There are a few numbers to crunch to find that answer, as we'll get into in a moment. To make things easier, we've programmed our proprietary algorithms to do the math for us (so our own biases and blind spots don't get in the way).
Luckily, in the long run, all those factors tend to smooth out into one clear trend.
And, while past performance is no guarantee of future results, it sure is nice to know that 70-years of history say stocks are most likely to keep moving higher from here!
Historically speaking, since 1954 the S&P 500 has notched 11 new all-time highs following a bear market drop of 20% or worse. Returns going forward can be mixed in the short term, anywhere from a few weeks to about two months later.
But over the next 12 months the S&P 500 has been higher 90% of the time, as you can see in the chart from Nautilus Research below:
In fact, the blue-chip stock index has posted average gains of 13.3% one year after hitting new all-time highs following a bear market. That's much better than the average annual gain of 7.8% over the past 70 years.
So, that's great news for the long run… but what about the here and now? Again, short term returns over the next few weeks to next couple of months can be a mixed bag, historically.
Such is the random nature of short run stock movements.
But Our TradeSmith Data Team Says They've Cracked the Code
Our analysts and developers spent the last six years developing a new algorithm – a breakthrough for short-term stock moves that we call Predictive Alpha.
The inputs include economic data like interest rates and inflation; fundamental data like profits and valuation ratios; and technical insights like relative price strength and moving averages.
Our A.I.-powered algorithm crunches all these numbers on nearly 3,000 securities (mostly stocks, plus a few dozen major ETFs). And in a split second it ranks each security based on two key predictive metrics:
The direction a security is expected to move over the next 21 trading days,
and the magnitude, or the percentage change it's expected to make in that time.
In this way, Predictive Alpha can show you, at a glance, where your stock is projected to be over roughly the next month, and it gives you an estimated price forecast right down to the penny.
With that in mind, I thought now would be a good time to put Predictive Alpha's computing power to work to find us some new stock ideas, too. By running the screener below, we can get an instant – and objective – look at which stocks may be best positioned to keep moving higher from here.
Let's Screen for Stocks That are Highly Likely to Go Up Soon
Be sure you're signed in to TradeSmith Finance. Click on Invest in the top menu bar, then click on Screener and + Create new screener.
This brings up the basic filters, where you should select:
Health Status: Green Zone and Yellow Zone. (Leave Red Zone un-selected.)
Trend: Up and Sideways
Add the Asset Type "Stock."
Next, we'll add an advanced filter to find stocks that are likely to move higher in price over the next 21 trading days. Click + Manage Filters and select the Predicted Price filter, under TradeSmith, then Save & Close.
Now in the new field, Predicted Price, select:
Predicted Price: Bullish. (1 month is the prepopulated timeframe.)
That's how I've done it in the example I show you below, but you can get similar results with the Predicted Change filter instead, which is also on the + Manage Filters| TradeSmith list:
Predicted Change: more than 0%
Keep in mind, you'll need to be a Predictive Alpha or Platinum member to access these advanced filters. (And if you don't see these tools in your TradeSmith Finance dashboard — and would like to — call 888-623-0858 to discuss that.)
Once those advanced filters are in place, then under Display & Sort Results, sort by Predicted Change (1m) and select DESC (descending).
That way your results will display the stocks with the highest one-month upside price predictions at the top, and sort them in descending order.
Finally, remember to click Save As New at the bottom of the page to save your work for next time.
Here's what your Screener display should look like:
Now you're ready to Run Screener by clicking the green button.
Here are the top 10 results I got when I ran the screener:
When you look all the way to the far-right, you'll find the one-month (1m) Predicted Change for each stock and the Predicted Price, or target price, that our Predictive Alpha system expects the stock to hit in the next 21 trading days.
As you keep scrolling down, you'll see many more results: When I ran the screener, it turned up 49 results in total. Keep in mind, you can always add other filters to narrow your search (or eliminate the Health Status and Trend filters to expand the results).
Mike Burnick's Bottom Line: Seventy years of market history suggests stocks should keep moving higher over the next year now that the S&P 500 has broken out to new all-time highs. But our brilliant A.I.-powered Predictive Alpha tool can help you navigate the short-term moves, too, by finding you the best stocks for what's coming down the pike.
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