Selasa, 01 September 2020

GOP. R.I.P.

Bill Bonner’s Diary

GOP. R.I.P.

By Bill Bonner

Tuesday, September 1, 2020 – Week 25 of the Quarantine

Anticollectivist, anti-Communist, anti-New Deal, passionately committed to limited government, free market economics, and congressional (as opposed to executive) prerogatives…

– Historian George Nash described the Republican party

L’état, c’est moi.

– Donald J. Trump (channeling Louis 14th)

Bill Bonner

Yesterday, we suffered through the recent Democratic National Convention…

Now, we turn to the Republicans’ convention. Another sad affair. But this time, not because Republicans are sticking with the ideas of the past; they’ve abandoned them.

The last Republican to run on a Law and Order campaign was Richard Nixon in 1968. Neither ignorant nor oafish, Nixon was a skilled lawyer. But he was a political opportunist. It was his administration that killed the real dollar, putting a fake one in its place, and made possible the catastrophe now unfurling.

But Nixon did not kill the Republican Party. That job was left to a reality TV star 52 years later.

So, hang the black crêpe. Say an Ave Maria. Draw the curtains and light a candle. The Republican Party is dead. Herewith, an obituary.

Party of Trump

Last week, we explored what happened in Argentina. In a move familiar to the ancient Greeks, democracy gave way to demagoguery… and the ideas and principles of the old land-owning classes gave way to the Big Man from Buenos Aires, Juan Perón.

Various forms of “Peronismo” have been in control in Argentina ever since – for the last 70 years. The country, meanwhile, has slumped from the world’s sixth-richest to number 80.

Donald Trump is no Juan Perón. And America is not Argentina. But watching the Republican Party convention last week, we thought we heard a tango beat.

The most remarkable thing about the Republican National Convention was that there were no Republicans there. Instead, the crowd was composed mostly of dim-wits, Trump idolaters, and neo-socialists.

As we forecast three years ago, the Republican Party has become the party of Trump.

Republicans Gone AWOL

The Republican Party was forged by Abraham Lincoln and then bent in one direction or another as the years went by… including a disastrous twist toward empire under Teddy Roosevelt.

But the Republican Party of Eisenhower, Robert Taft, and Ronald Reagan was hammered into its pre-Trump shape during the New Deal. Whatever else Republicans might believe, they agreed that they didn’t want the Roosevelt Administration lording over every detail of American life.

The creed, often honored in the breach, was simple: No meddling abroad. No meddling at home. The federal government’s proper role was to protect the rights of the people – as outlined in the Constitution – not to increase its own power by taking their rights away or trying to improve the world.

But none of this old wisdom was evident at the Republican National Convention last week. The ideas and principles that once distinguished Republicans from Democrats were AWOL. And our guess is they’re not coming back.

For more than 50 years, for example, Republicans said they believed in free trade. But no mention of it was made last week. And their main man is against it; he wants the government to control who trades with whom and on what terms.

For more than half a century, Republicans claimed to believe in balanced budgets. But they nominated a candidate who had presided over the most unbalanced budgets in history, with more than twice as much spending as had been collected in taxes… and a deficit now estimated at $4.1 trillion.

And where were the Republicans who believed in small government? Mr. Trump is a Big Government guy… ready to mix it up at home or abroad. In his speech, he actually boasted of having murdered a citizen of a foreign country (Qassem Suleimani) and of having delivered the biggest bundle of freebies to the American people in history – the “greatest national mobilization since World War II.”

In World War II, real Republicans – such as Dwight Eisenhower and Robert Taft – mobilized to defeat Germany and Japan. Now, the fake Republicans mobilize to cover up the damage they inflicted on the U.S. economy.

A Revolutionary New Force Set to Create 818,236 New Millionaires Over the Next Three Years…

Ersatz Republican

President Reagan’s summary of Big Government economic policy was direct and simple:

If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

What Reagan didn’t realize – because it was unthinkable back then – was that you could expand the power of the federal government without increasing taxes. All you had to do was “print” the money you needed.

Washington – with an ersatz “Republican” in the Oval Office – stopped the economy from moving. But instead of dumping the Big Man for meddling, the “Republicans” lauded him, and he lauded himself, for the most aggressive money-printing in American history – including about $3 trillion spent subsidizing everyone… and a $3 trillion print-a-thon by the Federal Reserve.

Yes, Dear Reader, the Republican Party is defunct. And last week, accepting the nomination, with its blood still on his hands, was the killer himself, a socialist of the Peronist persuasion.

By the time Mr. Trump stepped up to the podium, the folks in the cheap seats had been warmed up with the familiar bugaboos and hobgoblins… as well as a heady dose of Trump-worship.

For now, the born-rich New Yorker is no longer aspiring to be a decent president, but the “bodyguard of Western Civilization” with a whole new deal.

Whoa! Big job. How to do it?

With more money-printing, of course. More money dropped from helicopters – more than a trillion dollars.

And more meddling, too. More regulation of trade… more sanctions… more giveaways… more debt… more market manipulation (keep interest rates low)… and more interventions by the Army, not just overseas, but at home, too!

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List of Lies

Typically, by the fourth night of this hullabaloo, this would be the moment to reveal the program for the next four years. Spectators held their collective breath.

Mr. Trump began his speech. It began with an homage to Melania, as if she were Evita Perón… And it continued… all 71 minutes of it… as if it had been delivered in the Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires.

But no… no ideas… no principles… no thoughtful analysis… and no recognition of the central insight of “conservatism” – that there are limits to what government can do.

Instead, it was a long list of lies, gripes, threats, and fear mongering… followed by heady promises… most of which would be equally at home with the Democrats:

We will create 10 million jobs in the next 10 months.

Biden only promised 5 million.

We will protect Medicare and Social Security.

Biden: Ditto. Social Security is “sacred,” he said.

Looking for the next tech cash cow? This is it.

We will always, and very strongly, protect patients with pre-existing conditions, and that is a pledge from the entire Republican Party.

We will END surprise medical billing, require price transparency, and further reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums.

More meddling in the medical industry, in other words.

We will greatly expand energy development, continuing to remain number one in the world, and keep America energy-independent.

We will win the race to 5G, and build the world’s best cyber- and missile-defense.

More meddling in the energy and communications industries, too.

We will launch a new age of American ambition in Space. America will land the first WOMAN on the moon – and the United States will be the first nation to plant its flag on Mars.

Wow! The sky’s the limit.

But why not let Elon Musk do it with private money?

This is the unifying national agenda that will bring our country TOGETHER.

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Just Desserts

Apparently, not. Mr. Trump is the president now. He, more than anyone, is already in charge of the national agenda. But the country is more divided than ever.

Mr. Nixon may have kidnapped the Republican Party. But Donald Trump stabbed it in the back.

And now, with no Republicans in sight, the coast is clear. No matter who wins in November, you can expect bigger government, more subsidies, and more money-printing…

Either way, Trump or Biden, America will probably not get what it wants. Or needs.

But it will get the president it deserves.

Regards,

signature

Bill


Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.


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MAILBAG

On Monday, Bill called President Trump a “dangerous moron.” A dear reader comes to The Donald’s defense…

I get it that you don’t like Biden or Trump, and I don’t know who you’d like. Although it appears that you’re a fan of Tulsi Gabbard, you failed to show how she could do a better job as president than what Trump has done as far as record high employment, including women, minorities, etc., and record low unemployment, also including the above. Under Trump – pre-COVID – we had a booming economy, the likes of which most Americans hadn’t seen in many years, if ever! What exactly do you expect from a president?

The man is constantly working, and not even accepting a salary. Instead, he donates it to charity. Name a president who has ever done that!

– Steve C.

Other dear readers are riled up about Bill’s views on face masks and COVID-19

You need to redo your research on the value of face masks! They are beneficial to both the wearer and the encountered populace. They are certainly not an absolute barrier, but the countries that have used them extensively (say about 80%) have significantly fewer infections and deaths.

Had they been mandated instead of a lockdown of the “healthy” population, the economy would have had a chance. Now, I don’t think it has a chance.

– Sydney W.

I love to read your stuff for info I don’t get elsewhere. But I wonder what quack gives you medical information. You’re wrong about the virus, about masks, and about Sweden. We cannot protect vulnerable populations when we expose their families to the virus. Every epidemiologist, pulmonologist, infectious disease specialist, and ER doctor I’ve seen or heard emphasizes the need for masks, and they don’t limit it to indoor only.

Only a few countries are doing worse than Sweden and those countries, like the U.S., bungled the virus from the beginning. Please stick to economics and leave medicine to the experts.

– Jim K.

I am personally not in favor of a lockdown, but the average human is not reliable. Most people will do the right thing, but from my own experience, it is always a few who push things too far until stricter rules need to be applied. (Read about the reasons for the resurgence in Melbourne!!)

This virus is a very nasty infection, and can leave people with serious health issues when they survive. So prevention is better than cure (or learning to walk again as a once-fit acquaintance has).

A mask is a simple thing both to have and to wear. Anyone who engages in messy work has worn one (carpentry, masonry, and steelwork, for example). But the important thing, which I stress constantly, is that these masks are not to protect you from outside infection – they are to protect others from you.

This virus takes hold in your system and it can be up to three days before you show any symptoms, during which time you are highly contagious, without you knowing. By the time you are coughing and sniffling, you have already infected 90% of the people you have been close to and left the viral spores everywhere.

The reason surgeons wear masks is to not infect their patients, not the other way round. So wearing a mask is a gesture of care for your fellow humans, a feeling I find sadly lacking in recent years.

– Charlie P.

I think you are putting the cart before the horse, Bill. You are deciding on your position and then cherry-picking examples to support the position you have taken. There is little similarity between Sweden, Illinois, and Arizona. Why not look at Scandinavia as a whole? The countries that make it up are very similar. They have similar demographics, similar standard of living, similar culture, and similar levels of social responsibility.

Norway was the quickest and most effective to implement a lockdown. They have suffered 49 deaths per million people. Finland was a bit slower and less effective than Norway, but not by much, and suffered 60 deaths per million people. Denmark was a bit slower and less effective than Finland, and suffered 108 deaths per million people. As you say, Sweden didn’t really lock down as such at all, although there were some imposed and some recommended measures. They suffered 576 deaths per million people.

Now tell me lockdown doesn’t work.

– Warwick G.

Does the U.S. economy have a chance of rebounding? Are people unreliable, like Charlie believes? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

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