What Changed? | Markets have leaned on a familiar script: even if services stay firm, "shelter" eventually cools and drags core inflation down with it. The latest CPI data still show moderation, but the shelter downshift is no longer doing obvious incremental work. | That shift is subtle, but it's the kind that changes how each CPI print lands. When shelter decelerates cleanly, it widens the path for disinflation. When it plateaus, the burden shifts to smaller, noisier categories — and policy sensitivity rises. | The November 2025 CPI release comes with an important caveat: BLS did not collect October 2025 CPI survey data due to a lapse in appropriations, and it cannot be collected retroactively. That's why the release emphasizes two-month changes (September to November) in several places and why some one-month comparisons are simply unavailable. Treat the near-term shelter trend with a little more humility than usual — the direction matters more than the next decimal. | | Forget Amazon's 1997 IPO… This Could Be 287 Times Bigger | Early investors who bought shares during Amazon's 1997 IPO have had the chance to make a fortune. | In fact, Amazon has climbed more than 255,000% in the time since – enough to turn a $100 bill into more than $250,000! | But if you missed out, don't kick yourself… | According to a report from Capital.com, Elon Musk could be gearing up to take his internet satellite giant, called Starlink, public… in what Fortune magazine says will be the biggest IPO in history! | And here's the kicker… | With an estimated value of more than $100 billion, that means Starlink's potential IPO could be a staggering 287 times bigger than Amazon's 1997 IPO. | It'll also be 55 times bigger than Apple's IPO, 128 times bigger than Microsoft's IPO, and 177 times bigger than Nvidia's IPO, to name just a few. | In other words, the amount of wealth that could be up for grabs during Starlink's IPO will be nothing short of mind-boggling. | But that's not all… | For the first time ever, James Altucher – one of the world's top venture capitalists – is sharing how ANYONE can get a pre-IPO stake in Starlink… with as little as $100! | That means you have the first-ever chance to skip the line, and position yourself BEFORE the IPO takes place. | Click here now to see how to take action. | | The Numbers | CPI-U rises 2.7% year over year in November 2025. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rises 2.6% year over year. Shelter rises 3.0% year over year — and increases 0.2% from September to November. Rent of primary residence rises 3.0% year over year. Owners' equivalent rent of residences rises 3.4% year over year. Apartment List's national median rent ends December at $1,356 (down 0.8% month over month, down 1.3% year over year), with its vacancy rate at 7.3%.
| | Why It Matters | Shelter is where CPI narratives either compound or break down. It's the largest piece of the CPI basket, and owners' equivalent rent alone carries a weight that can dominate "core" even when everything else behaves. When shelter is steadily cooling, investors can tolerate pockets of firmness in services. When shelter flattens, those pockets start to matter again. | The key mechanical point is that CPI shelter is not a "new lease" series. It's a blended measure that reflects renewals and the in-place tenant stock — so it turns slowly and can remain sticky even when market-based rent trackers are soft. That lag is usually a gift to disinflation on the way down. But once the deceleration gets closer to its floor, the remaining progress can arrive in smaller increments and with more month-to-month volatility. | For markets, the implication is less about a housing boom and more about the inflation math. If shelter stops providing a clear tailwind, downside surprises in core inflation become harder to manufacture — and upside surprises become easier to deliver. That's when front-end rate expectations can reprice on narrower evidence, real yields can stay firm, and equity leadership can tilt toward businesses with demonstrable pricing power rather than "multiple expansion" stories. | | Takeaway | Disinflation doesn't usually fail with a bang — it fails by losing its most reliable contributors. If shelter shifts from tailwind to question mark, the CPI story gets narrower, and the market's margin for error shrinks. | — Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger | | Sources | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2025 https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.htm | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2026 https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm | Apartment List, January 2026 https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data | |
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