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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍 |
Welcome back! Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz quickly ended. Iran has reversed its opening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, a move of retaliation after the U.S. continued to blockade Iranian ports. According to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the strait will remain closed until the U.S. blockade is lifted. As part of that blockade, the U.S. Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman that ignored warnings to stop. Iran has vowed to respond. |
S&P Futures are off -0.8% and the Nasdaq is -0.6%, with US crude jumping back up 7% to over $90/bbl. Gasoline prices are currently ~$4.05/gallon. JD Vance is set to represent the U.S. in Pakistan for further peace talks before the ceasefire ends on Tuesday night, but the Iranian State Media is downplaying the efficacy of potential peace talks, calling US demands “unreasonable and unrealistic”. |
Here’s a look at earnings this week. We’re ramping up into busy season and I’m most interested in hearing how the airlines are going to talk about the rapid rise in jet fuel. |
Monday: Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, Alaska Air Tuesday: GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, RTX, Chubb, Danaher, Capital One, Northrop Grumman, 3M, D.R. Horton, EQT, MSCI, Interactive Brokers, Halliburton, United Airlines, Tractor Supply, Genuine Parts, Figma, Range Resources, Wednesday: Tesla, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, IBM, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Boeing, CME Group, ServiceNow, Boston Scientific Corp, Moody’s, CSX, Kinder Morgan, United Rentals, Waste Connections, Las Vegas Sands, Raymond James, Southwest Airlines, Rogers, Taylor Morrison, Meritage Homes Thursday: Intel, American Express, SAP, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Comcast, Freeport-McMoran, Blackstone, Baker Hughes, Comfort Systems, Nasdaq, CBRE, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Fiserv, PulteGroup, Dow, Hasbro, Pool Corp, American Airlines, Boyd Gaming Friday: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, Colgate, Charter, Nomura, Moog, Oppenheimer
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Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations). |
Tuesday: March Retail sales (1.5%), March Pending home sales Thursday: Initial jobless claims (210k) Friday: April Consumer sentiment (49)
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Earnings Corner 💸 |
Truist Financial $TFC ( ▲ 2.31% ) generated 11.6% fee income growth y/y and raised its FY26 fee growth guide slightly to HSDs. Truist’s CEO dismissed merger rumors and raised its share buyback target to $5B in ‘26. Fifth Third Bancorp $FITB ( ▲ 1.66% ) had similarly decent numbers, revenue and EPS were inline, and the company had a nice lift following its acquisition of Comerica. Share repurchases are set to resume in 2H26. State Street $STT ( ▲ 2.49% ) posted solid 1Q earnings, reporting revenue growth up 16% y/y to $3.8B and AUM of $5.6T. Notably, management expects equity markets to be flat in 2026, although they expect tangible AI use cases to begin in 2H26 and accelerate afterwards.
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On The Move 📈 📉 |
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IPO Roundup 📍 |
Kailera $KLRA ( ▲ 62.5% ) , a GLP-1-focused biotech company, surged 63% in a $625M IPO amid an obesity drug race. It is currently valued at $3.1B and priced at $16 and closed at $26 on debut. Alamar Bio $ALMR ( ▲ 29.41% ) , a protein-biomarker diagnostics firm, jumped 29% in an upsized $191M IPO. It priced at the top of its $15-$17 range, selling 11.25M shares at $17 and closing at $22, valuing it at $1.5B. Aevex $AVEX ( ▲ 34.65% ) , a maker of military drones, climbed 35% after raising $320mm in its U.S. IPO, giving it a market value of $3B. The company had $433mm in revenue last year, with a significant portion coming from Ukraine. Cerebras Systems, an AI chipmaker and data center operator, filed for a U.S. IPO that could raise $2B. The company recently withdrew a previous attempt to list after raising $1B in a private funding round. Biotech firm Odyssey Therapeutics and medical device maker Mobia Medical have filed to go public amid strong demand for biotech stocks. Liftoff Mobile, an ad tech firm backed by Blackstone, filed for a U.S. IPO just months after withdrawing a previous listing amid a software selloff. The company was valued at $4.3B in a deal last year. Geothermal developer Fervo files for IPO with $70.5M net loss for 2025, backed by investors including Devon Energy Corp, Capricorn Investment Group, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and Centarus Capital LP. KKR-backed emergency services provider Global Medical Response files for a ~$1B IPO, with $5.7B revenue in 2025 and $4.9B in long-term debt. Roark is picking banks for the IPO of Inspire Brands. They’re looking to raise over $2B. Inspire Brands owns Dunkin’, Arby’s, and Jimmy John’s, with $33.4B of sales in 2025 and 33,300 restaurants across its portfolio.
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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 |
The Danger of Mythos: Anthropic’s new model was released to only 40 companies, and for good reason: it’s the most powerful hacking tool ever created. Mythos can create break-in tools capable of uncovering bugs and exploiting vulnerabilities all on its own. It’s effective against Linux, the code that underpins most of modern computing, and its ability to act autonomously means the cost to penetrate the infrastructure of the internet is lower than ever. The powerful tool will help companies to discover and patch their own bugs, meaning greater security in the long run. But in the meantime, as the model becomes more available and is weaponized by attackers, “the people who haven’t done the basics will get hacked.”
Meanwhile, the NSA has been using Mythos Preview despite top officials at the DoD labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk. It’s unclear how the agency is using it, but other organizations that have access have been using the model to scan their own cyber systems for vulnerabilities. Gen Z is souring on AI: New Gallup data show younger Americans growing less excited and more anxious about artificial intelligence, with pessimism rising even among heavy users. Concerns mount over job displacement and overhyped corporate adoption.
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Spirit Airlines faces potential liquidation amid fuel spike: Bankrupt Spirit Airlines is at risk of liquidation as jet fuel prices surge following the US-Iran war. This complicates its planned Chapter 11 exit and creditor negotiations despite prior efforts to cut debt and restructure its fleet. First Brands pivots to litigation trust post-bankruptcy: After closing 17 plants and cutting 4,000 jobs, bankrupt auto-parts maker First Brands will liquidate remaining operations and seed a $25M litigation trust to pursue fraud and lender claims as primary recovery for creditors. Distressed investors, including Silver Point and SVP, have amassed positions that would position them to take control of QVC in its Chapter 11 process, positioning to swap roughly $5B of claims into equity as the retailer cuts debt from $6.6B to $1.3B in bankruptcy. Live Nation secured €630M in ~15-year privately placed debt through a privately placed deal arranged by Goldman Sachs, aiming to fund its global venue expansion despite ongoing antitrust litigation pressures. Private credit enters ticketing: Eagle Point is financing loans to investors who buy and resell 2026 World Cup tickets, aiming to profit on massive mark-ups. The firm increased its $50mm package to Sports Illustrated Tickets and will sign off the loan at the full cost of the tickets, which are typically worth 3x their face value. Wealth Advisors may have had the wrong incentives to push Private Credit to Retail: Wealth advisors earned over $2B in fees from 16 private capital funds, with banks and brokerages receiving significant payments for placing clients into these products, raising concerns about whether retail fully understood these products. A tariff refund system is set to launch on Monday, allowing businesses that paid tariffs to begin claiming refunds. The government will process refunds in phases, with more recent payments being prioritized.
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M&A Transactions💭 |
QXO, a building products consolidator led by Brad Jacobs, has acquired TopBuild for $17B at a 14.9x EV/EBITDA multiple. |
Coeo Inkasso, a provider of debt collection services, was acquired for EUR 354.3M by doValue (MIL: DOV). |
Al-Hilal Club, operator of a football club, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquired for SAR 840.0M by Kingdom Holding Company. |
HMA Group, provider of industrial equipment, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $170.0M by Anchorage Capital Partners. |
Evryo Group, operator of electric generation, distribution, and supply infrastructure, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $811.91M by Premier Energy Group. |
Bitnomial, developer of a bitcoin derivatives exchange platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $550.0M Kraken. PJT Partners advised on the sale. |
Private Placement Transactions💭 |
Factory, developer of an AI based platform, raised $150.0M of Series C venture funding led by Khosla Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $1.35B. |
Aliste, developer of an energy monitoring platform, raised $300.0M through a combination of debt and equity led by Big Global Investment. |
SINI, operator of a network technology company, raised $505.0M of venture funding from undisclosed investors. |
BattMan Energy, developer of an energy storage system, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding led by Battery Ventures. |
Accelerated Evolution Technology, developer of embodied intelligent systems, raised nearly CNY 1.0B of Series C venture funding from Legend Star, Guohai Innovation Capital Investment Management, and Bank of Communications Financial Assets Investment. |
Restructuring Updates💭 |
1) QVC Group (QVC / HSN parent) |
Type: Chapter 11 Debt: ~$6.6B (targeting reduction to ~$1.3B) What happened: Filed for Chapter 11 in Texas with a 90-day restructuring support agreement; operations continuing normally Scale signal: One of the largest media/retail bankruptcies of 2026; multi-brand national TV + e-commerce platform
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2) Lexora (USA EPC / construction) |
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3) Noise Entertainment & Media LLC |
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4) Morrison Hospital Association |
Type: Chapter 11 Debt: Not disclosed What happened: Filing recorded April 10 but surfaced in active case listings and monitoring feeds during this window Scale signal: Hospital operator (healthcare bankruptcies typically involve significant liabilities and community impact)
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5) Every Blooming Thing, LLC |
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Restructuring Rumors💭 |
1) Office Properties Income Trust (commercial real estate) |
Type: Chapter 11 restructuring (late-stage, heavy creditor negotiations) Debt: ~$2.4B restructuring plan What happened: Approaching confirmation phase with court hearing scheduled; ongoing restructuring discussions and creditor positioning Scale signal: Large office REIT tied to broader commercial real estate distress cycle
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2) FAT Brands (restaurant franchisor portfolio) |
Type: Distressed restructuring / potential asset sales Debt: ~$300M+ DIP financing tied to process What happened: Court-approved bidding procedures and auction timeline advancing (April 24 bid deadline) Scale signal: Multi-brand restaurant platform undergoing asset sale / restructuring process
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Odds of the Day 🍒 |
You can trade on geopolitics on Polymarket, and currently traders don’t expect a permanent peace deal until May or June. |
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Noteworthy Chart 🧭 |
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