The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍 | Welcome back. | Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an airstrike by Israel and the US. Trump says that bombing will likely continue throughout the week in order to disable the country's nuclear capabilities. Iran has responded with more bombings, striking a major hotel in Dubai, oil tankers and ports in the middle east, and launching many other intercepted missiles across the Middle East. | The S&P and Nasdaq are slated to open down -1%, the dollar surged, and Oil is up 7% to 71.65/bbl. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to an effective stop (~20% of the world's oil is shipped through there). | Wars over the past several years have created significant market dislocations, so expect a selloff on Monday. | Here's a look at earnings this week. | Monday: MongoDB, Norwegian Cruise Line, Sealed Air Corporation, EchoStar, Ingram Micro Holding, ADT Tuesday: CrowdStrike, On Holding, AutoZone, Target, Ross Stores, Thor Industries, GitLab, Sea Limited, Best Buy Wednesday: Broadcom, Okta, Veeva Systems, Brown-Forman, Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle, Bath & Body, Cracker Barrel, Wix.com, Veeva Systems Thursday: Costco, Marvell, Kroger, Burlington Stores, BJ's Wholesale, Gap, Victorias Secret & Co, Samsara, Guidewire, Ciena Corporation Friday: Embraer S.A
| Here's a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations). | Monday: S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing (52.0%), Auto sales Wednesday: ADP employment (50,000), S&P final U.S. services PMI, ISM services (53.5%), Fed Beige Book Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000), U.S. productivity (1.8%), Import price index (0.4%), Import price index minus fuel Friday: U.S. employment report (54,000), U.S. unemployment rate (4.3%), U.S. hourly wages (0.3%), Hourly wages y/y (3.7%)
| | Next week, we'll find out if you're getting paid enough | We're wrapping up our annual Wall Street Compensation Report and this is your final window to get it delivered directly to your inbox. | Look, thousands of Investment Professionals and Investment Bankers participate on Buyside Hub. | | This creates the best and deepest compensation report on Wall Street. | This report is built by the community to bring real transparency to pay, bonuses, and career progression across the industry. | Sign up for Buyside Hub, contribute to the platform, and get access to the Report. | You'll be able to surf our our massive database and know if you're getting paid what you deserve. | Don't leave money on the table. Make sure you're a part of the conversation. | | | Earnings Corner 💸 | $INTU ( ▲ 3.7% ) Revenue rose 17%, beating at $4.65B vs. $4.53B, while EPS of $4.15 beat by $0.47, driven by strong QuickBooks Online (+24%) and Online ecosystem growth that fueled operating leverage and margin expansion as higher margin subscription revenue and pricing actions scaled across the platform. Guidance was light at 10% growth amid tax timing and Mailchimp softness, but full year outlook was reaffirmed. $DELL ( ▲ 21.93% ) Top and bottom line beat. Revenue jumped 39% to $33.4B, while EPS came in at $3.89 vs. $3.53 as AI server shipments accelerated and backlog expanded. The revenue beat was driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure, with AI-optimized server sales up 342% y/y and data center growth offsetting memory cost pressures. Revenue guidance of $138B–$142B exceeded expectations on continued AI momentum and strong order visibility. $CRWV ( ▼ 18.51% ) Revenue jumped 110% to $1.57B beating expectations while EPS missed at a $0.56 loss vs. $0.49 as heavy interest expense and aggressive capacity buildout pressured margins. Growth was driven by surging AI cloud demand, with backlog expanding to $66.8B and contracted power capacity ramping, but near-term profitability took a hit as the company accelerates data center expansion. Revenue guidance came in very light, and planned capex of $30B–$35B raised concerns. $CELH ( ▼ 0.94% ) Revenue beat at $721.6M vs. $639M, while adjusted EPS of $0.26 topped $0.19 as recent acquisitions Alani Nu ($370M) and Rockstar ($45M) drove portfolio expansion and strong consumer demand. Core CELSIUS brand revenue declined 8% due to integration timing, but retail sales rose double digits, signaling underlying demand remains solid. Margins dipped to 47.4% due to integration costs and tariffs, but management expects them to rebound as transition expenses roll off and supply chain efficiencies improve. $DUOL ( ▼ 14.01% ) Revenue beat at $282.9M vs. $276M, while EPS of $0.94 beat as subscription revenue was up 39% and user growth drove operating leverage. Management guided 2026 revenue to $1.20B–$1.22B and bookings growth to 11% which was below expectations. $XYZ ( ▲ 16.82% ) Beat on revenue, while EPS was in line with expectations. Gross profit rose 24% y/y to $2.87B, driven by strong Cash App momentum and margin expansion. Management is cutting 40% of the workforce to become a "leaner, AI-native" company, targeting a sharp jump in gross profit per employee. Guidance topped expectations with 18% gross profit growth and EPS of $3.66 vs. $3.22. There's been a lot of debate on whether Block is finding real AI efficiencies or is just bloated or struggling. It's probably a mix of both, as Block staffed up hard over the past several years, but clearly there are real AI-related productivity gains many engineers have been discovering over the past two months.
| On The Move 📈 📉 | | IPO Roundup 📍 | Blackstone is launching a publicly traded acquisition company to invest in data centers, offering retail investors another way to capitalize on the AI boom. Blackstone aims to raise tens of billions for the fund from a broad group of investors, beginning with sovereign wealth funds. SpaceX weighs a confidential IPO filing as soon as March, a move that would keep the company on track for a June listing at a potential $1.75T valuation.
| For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club | | On Monday, the WSR Investing Club published a piece on Red Violet, an identity intelligence solutions software provider. Access it here. | | Today's Headlines 📖🍿 | Anthropic blacklisted: The Pentagon labeled the AI firm a "supply chain risk" after it refused to lift safeguards on military use of Claude, moving to cancel a contract worth up to $200M and ordering agencies to cease use. Hours after Anthropic's blacklisting, OpenAI reached an agreement to deploy its models in the Defense Department's classified network, with CEO Sam Altman saying OpenAI will have "technical safeguards" against domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapons.
Hot PPI jolts markets: January producer prices rose 2.9% YoY vs 2.6% estimated with core at 3.6% vs 3.0% estimated. This sent markets lower as traders reevaluated Fed rate-cuts and revived stagflation concerns. The Ellisons win Warner Bros: Paramount has officially bested Netflix in the bidding war for Warner Bros, with the company signing a $110B deal to be acquired by Paramount at $31-per-share. Paramount is also acquiring cable network CNN as part of the deal. The merger will now go through the regulatory process, but the Ellisons' ties to the White House make approval likely, and a $7B termination fee is included if the deal does get blocked. Netflix received a whopping $2.8B breakup fee as a result, a provision that was added into Paramount's latest and final offer. Netflix "knew right away" that they would drop out when they saw Paramount's increased bid, having decided their maximum offer in advance.
OpenAI's massive raise: OpenAI announced a new $110B funding round with backing from Amazon ($50B), Nvidia ($30B), and SoftBank ($30B), pushing the company's valuation up to $730B. The deal includes a partnership with Amazon to develop customized models while also expanding its agreement with AWS by $100B over the next eight years. Apollo has netted roughly $250mm in paper profits on xAI debt, with the gains coming as part of an investment that gave the startup access to Nvidia's GPUs. Apollo has invested a total of $7B in xAI debt, purchasing $3.5B in December for 99 cents on the dollar and another $3.5B in February. BlackRock's TCP Capital Corp private debt fund sank by as much as 8.7% after cutting its dividend to 17 cents a share from 25 cents. The fund recently cut its NAV by 19%, and has struggled due to its exposure to e-commerce aggregators and bankrupt home improvement company Renovo Home Partners. AI fears are pushing pricing: Private credit lenders to German insurance broker Global Gruppe are pushing for higher margins on a $1.4B loan, with refinancing being discussed at 500 to 525 basis points over Euribor. Blackstone private credit fund sold a $400mm bond just one day after the fund disclosed continued signs of stress in one of its largest investments. The notes due in 2029 will yield 2 percentage points above treasuries. Bain warns that software default rates could hit double digits, with the firm's Angelo Ruffino expecting AI disruptions to create "real stress" and drive defaults above the projected US rate of 5% this year. Telluride turmoil erupts as Colorado's ultra-luxury ski town is locked in a bitter battle with longtime owner Chuck Horning over allegations of an attempted coup, resignations, and an outside probe into potential misconduct. UAE exchanges will close March 2-3 after missile and drone attacks in Iran.
| | Want to get the most out of ChatGPT? | | ChatGPT is a superpower if you know how to use it correctly. | Discover how HubSpot's guide to AI can elevate both your productivity and creativity to get more things done. | Learn to automate tasks, enhance decision-making, and foster innovation with the power of AI. | Download the free guide | | M&A Transactions💭 | Verdad Resources, operator of an oil and gas exploration and development company, was acquired for $1.26B by Peoria Resources. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale. | US Salt, producer and processor of evaporated salt products, was acquired for $907.5M by ContextLogic Holdings, BC Partners, and Abrams Capital. Houlihan Lokey and Rothschild & Co advised on the sale. | NCR Atleos (NYS: NATL), financial technology company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.722B by Brinks (NYS: BCO). EV/EBIDTA was 5.06x and EV/Revenue was 0.85x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale. | Macquarie Airfinance, operator of a diversified aircraft leasing company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $7.0B by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale. | The Consumer Vehicle Finance Business of Secure Trust Bank was acquired by LCM Partners through a EUR 458.9M LBO. Alantra, Shore Capital Group, and Investec advised on the sale. | AiCuris, operator of a medical research agency, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 780.0M by Asahi Kasei (TKS: 3407). Bank of America advised on the sale. | atNorth, provider of enterprise database management and compute services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.0B by CPP Investments and Equinix. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale. | ThomasLloyd Group, provider of clean energy, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquire Roman DBDR (NAS: DBDR) through a $850.0M reverse merger, resulting in the combined entity trading on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker symbol "TCSG". | Prisma Medois de Pago, developer of payment gateway intended for electronic commerce and transaction processing, was acquired for $5.0B by Visa (NYS: V). Morgan Stanley advised on the sale. | KORE Wireless (NYS: KORE), provides internet of things solutions, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $421.08M by Abry Partners and Searchlight. EV/EBITDA was 22.61x and EV/Revenue was 2.54x. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale. | Jayhawk Fine Chemicals, manufacturer of specialty chemicals, was acquired for $150.0M by Anupam Rasayan India (BOM: 543275). Piper Sandler advised on the sale. | BeatBox Beverages, producer of alcoholic beverages, was acquired for $490.0M by Anheuser-Busch InBev (BRU: ABI). EV/Revenue was 3.29x. Stifel advised on the sale. | Private Placement Transactions💭 | VITURE, developer of augmented reality glasses, raised $200.0M of venture funding led by Legend Capital. | UpGuard, developer of a third-party risk and attack surface management platform, raised $105.0M of Series C venture funding led by Springcoast Capital Partners. | Stay22, developer of affiliate monetization software, raised $122.0M of venture funding from Summit Partners. | Revel, developer of a hardware control platform, raised $150.0M of Series B venture funding led by Index Ventures. | Honest Health, provider of patient care services, raised $140.0M of venture funding led by NewSpring Capital. | Anhui Shenji Technology, manufacturer of advanced computing hardware, raised CNY 2.2B of seed funding from Hefei Guotou, IDG Capital, China Fortune-Tech Capital, and Suzhou Oriza Holdings Corporation at a pre-money valuation of CNY 7.8B. | Rapidus, operator of semiconductor manufacturer infrastructure, raised JPY 276B of venture funding from Dai Nippon Printing, Government of Japan, and other undisclosed investors. | Juwei Technology, manufacturer of embodied intelligence robotics, raised over $100.0M of Series A++ venture funding led by Binzhou State-Owned Capital Investment. | | Odds of the Day 🍒 | Polymarket has an earnings calendar where traders project whether Earnings will beat or miss. Access it here. | | | Noteworthy Chart 🧭 | | | Meme Cleanser 😆 | | Until next time! | | Housekeeping Items: | Our Weekly Poll: | How are we doing?Tell us how we're doing and any feedback you have | | Finance Jobs: Looking for a job in Finance? Join Buyside Hub to access the Job Board for free. | Upgrade to the WSR Investing Club: Wall Street Rollup readers get 40% off for their first 12 months. Receive high-conviction stock research & analysis to help you cut through the noise. | | Recruit for Investment Banking: High Yield Harry and a group of Investment Bankers put together a 248 page deck for those recruiting for Investment Banking - sign up for free here to learn more about our decks. | Join beehiiv: Looking to start your own newsletter? Join beehiiv through us and you'll get 30 days free and 3 months of a 20% discount. | | Join our Referral Program and Gain WSR Investing Club Access ☕️ | Enjoyed the newsletter? Send it to a friend 🤝 | | Share The Wall Street Rollup | Refer 6 new readers to the Wall Street Rollup to gain 3 months of free WSR Investing Club Access. Refer 15 new readers for 8 months of access! | You currently have 0 referrals, only 6 away from receiving 3 Months of Wall Street Rollup Investing Club Access. | | | Or copy and paste this link to others: https://www.thewallstreetrollup.com/subscribe?ref=DwqDXt8SIM | |
| | Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today's Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket |
|
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar