| | $80B raise. 3% float. 30% retail… | | Last August, Figma went public. The design software company priced its IPO at $33 a share. | By the time the market opened, it was trading at $95. | A 188% gain before most people had finished their morning coffee. | Retail investors - the regular people - watched every dollar of that gain happen in real time. | From the sidelines. | Because that's how IPOs work. | The institutions get in at $33. | You get in at $95. | If you're lucky enough to get in at all. | It's just the system. The banks control the allocation. | Retail gets whatever's left — which is typically between 5% and 10% of total shares. | However… | SpaceX just announced it's considering giving retail investors 30% of its IPO. | Three times the normal allocation. For what could be the biggest public offering in human history. | The door that's been closed for decades just cracked open.
Here's the story ⇩
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| | The Biggest IPO Ever. By A Lot. | SpaceX is expected to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion in its IPO. | For context: | The largest IPO in history was Saudi Aramco in 2019, which raised $25.6 billion. | SpaceX at the low end doubles that. At the high end, it nearly triples it. | The company is expected to file confidentially with regulators in the coming days. | A public filing typically follows a couple of months later. | The target date: mid-June. | Which happens to be right before Elon Musk's 55th birthday. | (He is not subtle.)
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| | The Playbook Nobody Has Tried Before | SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen carried a message to Wall Street this week that made bankers uncomfortable. | Musk wants ordinary investors to own as much as 30% of the IPO. | In public listings, companies typically allocate no more than 5% to 10% to retail investors. | SpaceX is considering three to six times that. | But the retail allocation is just one piece of a much stranger playbook. | Instead of executives flying around the world on a traditional roadshow - pitching fund managers in conference rooms in New York, London, and Hong Kong - Musk wants investors to come to SpaceX. | → Visit the manufacturing facilities. → Watch a rocket launch. → Leave wanting to put in big orders. | Also under consideration: preferential treatment for existing investors in Musk's other companies - Tesla shareholders and others who've already bet on his vision - and unusually long lockup periods that limit how quickly early investors can sell. | This is not how IPOs are done. | It is very much how Musk does things.
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| | Beyond the Spectacle… | For most of financial history, the best investment opportunities were structurally inaccessible to regular people. | Companies stayed private longer. | The gains compounded inside venture capital funds and sovereign wealth portfolios. | With young companies staying private longer, the number of public companies listed on the NYSE shrank from 7,322 in 1996 to roughly half that number by the late 2010s. | The companies that went public were often already past their highest-growth years. | Retail investors got the table scraps of the innovation economy. | SpaceX represents something different. | A company at the absolute frontier of human ambition — rockets, satellites, Starlink, Mars — going public while still in its most explosive growth phase. | And its founder is explicitly choosing to let regular people in at the ground floor. | Not as an afterthought. | As a stated priority.
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| | The Catch (There's Always One) | A few things worth keeping in your back pocket. | ! The 30% is not confirmed. | SpaceX's CFO floated it to Wall Street. The plan is not final. Investment banks are pushing back — they want to reserve allocation for their institutional clients, who represent billions in recurring business. | ✓ The valuation is extraordinary. | SpaceX is expected to trade at roughly 110 times its 2025 revenue — higher than almost any comparable public company. That's not a red flag by itself. But it means the stock is pricing in enormous future growth. If that growth is even slightly delayed, early buyers feel it. | ! The float is historically thin. | SpaceX is expected to sell only 3% to 4% of its equity in the IPO. That's the thinnest large-cap float in modern history. A thin float means any sentiment shift — good or bad — hits a narrow order book. PitchBook analysts expect 20% to 30% price swings on news that would move a normal stock by 5%. | ! In other words: this is not a trade for the faint-hearted. |
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| | The Figma Problem, Solved? | Here's what's really being tested with the SpaceX IPO. | For years, the argument for keeping retail out of IPOs was that institutions provide stability — they don't flip shares on day one, they hold positions, they anchor the price. | Retail, the argument went, is too volatile. Too emotional. Too short-term. | SpaceX's bet is the opposite. | That retail investors — the ones who watched every Starship launch, who use Starlink in their homes, who actually believe in the mission — will be the most patient holders of all. | That belief, more than any financial model, is what's actually being tested in June. | If it works, every major IPO after this will have to answer the same question: | Why aren't you doing what SpaceX did?
!!! Please read this: SpaceX being an incredible company does not make it a safe investment. It has never traded publicly, carries an aggressive valuation, comes with no guarantee of returns and early volatility could be extreme. Treat this as high-risk capital only.
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