In a VIX +30 market, the biggest moves happen overnight.
| | | | You want to know the most dangerous thing in trading right now? | You. Staring at the screen. | The S&P is swinging 60 handles on Iran headlines. Oil is pushing $100. Every hour brings a new reason to panic or pile in. | The traders glued to their screens right now are making the worst decisions of their careers because they're reacting in real time to noise. | Here's what I do instead. | I place a Superfly butterfly before the close or after hours. Set it. Then I go to sleep. | The overnight session is where these trades come alive. Stocks make their biggest moves while most people are in bed. | By the time the cash market opens, the butterfly has either hit its target zone or it hasn't. No second-guessing. No panic. No watching a position bleed while CNBC tells you the world is ending. | A Superfly butterfly is a zero DTE options structure. | Zero DTE means the options expire the same day. | A butterfly is three legs: buy one option at a higher strike, sell two at the center strike, buy one at a lower strike. The trade pays maximum when price lands near that center strike at expiration. | The expected move tells me where to put the center. | The expected move is the at-the-money straddle price — what the options market is pricing in for movement in a single session. | When the VIX is at 30, those ranges get wide. Wide ranges mean the overnight session has room to run straight into my target zone. | I don't predict where the stock goes. I identify the range, build the structure, and let the overnight session do the work. | Here's what that looked like over the last three weeks: | AVGO (3/27): Paid $0.55, closed at $2.00. Return: 263%. Tesla (3/11): Paid $0.55, closed at $2.10. Return: 281%. Meta (3/23): Paid $0.63, closed at $2.00. Return: 217%. Apple (3/13): Paid $0.38, closed at $1.20. Return: 215%. Tesla (3/20): Paid $0.50, closed at $1.34. Return: 168%. AVGO (3/25): Paid $0.67, closed at $1.38. Return: 105%. Tesla (3/25): Paid $0.65, closed at $1.35. Return: 107%.
| Every one of those trades was placed before sleep and resolved by the open. | While other traders were watching their screens at 2 AM wondering if oil was going to $110, my positions were working on their own. | The structure removes you from the equation. That's the edge. | I share all my trade details with Superfly members, if you're not one yet, click here for the details. | To your success, | Don Kaufman
| P.S. Next week is a four-day week with three expirations. Monday. Wednesday. Thursday. More overnight sessions, more opportunities, same structure. Don't think. Just look at what the expected move says. | | |
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