Guideposts: Why Nvidia Will Keep Winning? | | By Richard Vigilante
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Discover the Trillion Dollar Triangle here. | | | Why does Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) keep winning?
Every major AI company is trying to build an artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator to challenge Nvidia—or at least bypass it.
Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), chips designed specifically for machine-learning workloads. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has Inferentia, its custom AI inference processor. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is designing its own chips. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) are investing heavily to catch up.
And the companies trying hardest to escape Nvidia are its biggest customers—the hyperscalers, the giant cloud-computing platforms that spend the most on AI infrastructure. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are each investing billions of dollars to design their own AI hardware.
In principle, such powerhouse competition should erode Nvidia's position. Hardware advantages rarely last forever. Faster chips appear. Manufacturing nodes change. Prices fall.
Yet for all the merits of their alternative accelerators, none of these companies pose a serious challenge to Nvidia's dominance.
They will nibble around the edges, avoid Nvidia's prices here and there—but little more.
Because Nvidia's dominance does not ultimately rest on hardware. Or even inside the company.
Its real power lives in universities, research labs, open-source codebases, and the habits of millions of programmers.
It was in 2006 that Nvidia introduced CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture), its programming environment for graphics processing units (GPUs). At the time, GPUs—originally designed to render video-game graphics—were still primarily graphics devices. Most scientific computing ran on central processing units (CPUs). Programmers resorted to cumbersome workarounds to force this new device—designed originally to enhance graphics—to perform mathematical calculations.
CUDA changed that by enabling developers to write GPU programs using familiar C-like code. Developers could think in terms of threads, memory hierarchies, and parallel workloads rather than graphics pipelines.
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Get in on the action by clicking this link. | | | Jensen Huang, Nvidia's founder and chief executive officer (CEO), saw early that the decisive factor would not be the hardware itself, but the environment programmers learn to work in. From the beginning, Huang's strategy was to form that environment—to build an intellectual ecosystem.
A huge first step was that instead of focusing only on commercial developers, the company seeded universities. Nvidia funded research labs, provided discounted GPUs, created CUDA teaching materials, and supported faculty training programs. CUDA programming began appearing in computer-science curricula around the world. Students learned GPU programming before they ever entered the industry.
Nvidia built not just a software platform but a global training pipeline. Every year universities graduate new cohorts of AI researchers, machine-learning engineers, data scientists, and GPU programmers. Many of them already understand CUDA libraries, GPU memory models, and performance-tuning techniques.
When those engineers join companies, they naturally continue using the tools they know.
The ecosystem then reinforces itself through research.
In the AI world, knowledge spreads quickly. New models are typically published alongside their code, training methods, and hardware configurations. Papers presented at leading AI conferences—such as the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), and the Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) and more—routinely report experiments conducted on Nvidia GPUs.
This pattern is not accidental. The dominant research frameworks—PyTorch and TensorFlow, open-source software frameworks used to build and train AI models—were designed primarily for GPU acceleration. While they can run on other hardware, the most efficient and widely tested paths remain CUDA-based. As a result, most modern AI experiments are developed and trained on Nvidia systems.
With each experiment, the AI development community builds tacit knowledge—practical know-how—of tactical excellence in GPU computing. | | What the Charts Don't Show You (But A.I. Does) You're probably looking at the same price charts as millions of other traders.
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CUDA becomes a language that defines a culture—and signals membership in it.
The same pattern appears in the startup world. When an AI startup begins developing a model, its first priority is to be able to experiment quickly. Essential are stable tools, working libraries, debugging support, and a large developer community.
The fastest path is the most familiar one: development enabled by CUDA and run on Nvidia GPUs.
Across thousands of AI startups, the first working models are typically built on Nvidia GPUs. Later, once the model works, companies may consider alternatives for deployment—custom accelerators, specialized inference chips, or cloud-provider hardware. But the model itself was born on CUDA. Porting it elsewhere requires engineering effort, and many companies simply remain on Nvidia infrastructure.
Even the benchmarks that measure AI progress reinforce CUDA culture. Researchers evaluate new models against standardized tasks such as ImageNet, GLUE (General Language Understanding Evaluation), and MMLU (Massive Multitask Language Understanding). These benchmarks are the coordinates by which the research community steers.
And most benchmark implementations depend on CUDA and Nvidia GPU clusters. Even the scorecards of AI progress are written in CUDA.
For Nvidia, the wonderful thing about the CUDA ecosystem is that Nvidia did not build it. NVDA planted the seeds, but the ecosystem grew over time through universities, research labs, startups, open-source developers, and conference communities.
Nvidia's advantage is not just technological. It is educational, institutional, and deeply embedded in the training and culture of the engineers building the AI world.
Nvidia sells tens of billions of dollars' worth of GPUs, not only because its hardware is excellent, but because its hardware has become a habit.
Competitors will have a hard time breaching that moat precisely because—like the most durable moats in technology industries—it lives outside the firm.
Investors who focus only on hardware will miss the deeper competitive battle: the struggle to shape the ecosystems wherein engineers build the future.
Sincerely,
George Gilder, Richard Vigilante, Steve Waite, John Schroeter, and Dr. Robert Castellano
Editors, Gilder's Guideposts, Technology Report, Technology Report Pro, Moonshots, and Private Reserve | | About George Gilder:
 George Gilder is the most knowledgeable man in America when it comes to the future of technology and its impact on our lives. He’s an established investor, bestselling author, and economist with an uncanny ability to foresee how new breakthroughs will play out, years in advance. George and his team are the editors of Gilder Technology Report, Gilder Technology Report Pro, Moonshots and Private Reserve. | | | | | |
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