The U.S military spent an estimated $3.7 billion during the first 100 hours of conflict in Iran... That's $891 million a day.
A Military Investment Beyond Defense Stocks
By Vic Lederman, publisher, Chaikin Analytics
The U.S military spent an estimated $3.7 billion during the first 100 hours of conflict in Iran...
That's $891 million a day.
Now, official data from the Pentagon is scarce. So these numbers come from the Center for Strategic and International Studies ("CSIS"). The think tank made its estimates based on past conflicts and publicly available data.
Notably, one spending category made up more than 80% of that entire $3.7 billion total.
I'm talking about munitions. For this conflict so far, think guided missiles, gravity bombs, or even defensive missiles.
CSIS estimates the munitions cost coming in at about $3.1 billion. That's a huge number. And again, we're talking about just the first 100 hours of the conflict.
Then, there's a big cost range between the different types of weapons used...
One Tomahawk missile sets the U.S. military back by $3.6 million. Meanwhile, a gravity bomb with a "JDAM" precision-guidance kit costs $80,000.
With this huge spending, you would expect the big winners here would be the defense companies that make these munitions.
That would be true. But there's another business that could eventually benefit from replacing these missiles...
And if you're a regular Chaikin PowerFeed reader, you might have guessed what I'm talking about...
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Very few people know this, but China built a rare earth "axis" deep inside Iranian territory. As the war escalates, is Beijing preparing to retaliate? Prices have already spiked 69X... and what comes next could be far bigger. Here's what to buy.
U.S. Demand for Rare Earth Materials Could Soar Even Higher
A lot of advanced military equipment requires rare earth magnets to function.
That's true of those $3.6 million Tomahawk missiles and $80,000 JDAM bombs.
Of course, the rare earth materials in these explosives are often single use...
In that PowerFeed issue, Marc discussed MP Materials (MP). It owns the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California – which Ethan also mentioned in his discussion about these elements.
MP Materials is the only company that can take the rare earth elements from mine to magnet in the U.S.
As Marc mentioned, that sparked the U.S. government's interest. It invested in MP Materials... only to decide against a second round after China eased its export controls on rare earth elements.
And Marc also said that the whole situation first led to a huge boom for MP Materials' stock – followed by a massive bust.
Fast-forward to this year...
When the war in Iran started, I noticed something interesting myself. But it's not the turnaround that you might expect just yet...
A Spike in Interest From Wall Street Hasn't Saved MP Materials' Stock in the Power Gauge
On February 26, MP Materials reported its fourth-quarter results. And it crushed earnings expectations.
Before then, the "smart money" on Wall Street mostly hadn't cared for the stock since mid-2025.
But MP Materials' earnings beat got the attention of institutional investors...
Then, only two days later, the U.S. made its first strikes on Iran.
As you can imagine, the smart money surged in. You can see what I mean in the chart below...
However, I'm not saying that MP Materials' stock is poised to make a massive comeback...
Off the bat, its Power Gauge rating is still in "bearish" territory. So our system sees downside ahead.
If the fighting drags on, maybe the U.S government could take a second look at MP Materials for an additional investment. But if the war stops as suddenly as it starts, the smart money could flee... and that could send the stock lower.
To compound that risk, the Power Gauge still sees plenty of problems "under the hood" with MP Materials...
Out of the four main categories, only Earnings is in positive territory. Experts is "neutral"... while Financials and Technicals are both "very bearish." Again, that all adds up to a "bearish" overall rating.
It's true that the U.S. military needs rare earths. And as I said, that could eventually be a bigger benefit to MP Materials' stock.
But for now, the Power Gauge is still flashing a clear warning that the stock looks like a trap. I'll follow our system's lead and find better places to put money to work.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.23%
5
19
6
S&P 500
-0.57%
76
289
134
Nasdaq
-0.59%
15
56
29
Small Caps
-0.33%
343
1100
438
Bonds
-0.49%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are somewhat Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+2.0%
Utilities
+0.47%
Information Technology
-0.36%
Consumer Staples
-1.21%
Materials
-1.34%
Real Estate
-1.49%
Health Care
-1.91%
Communication
-2.56%
Industrials
-3.11%
Consumer Discretionary
-3.13%
Financial
-3.32%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Innovative Technology Services
10
61
29
Over the past 6 months, the Innovative Technology subsector (XITK) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -21.41%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #15 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 2 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AI
C3.ai, Inc.
ALKT
Alkami Technology, I
APLD
Applied Digital Corp
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
SNDK
+6.92%
ARES
+5.45%
MU
+5.13%
BX
+4.56%
IP
+4.49%
Losers
ULTA
-14.24%
ADBE
-7.58%
PODD
-6.88%
MOS
-6.54%
FCX
-4.78%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
BKE The Buckle, Inc.
Q4
$1.59
Beat by $0.08
* * * *
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