BONUS: 3 Small-Cap Stocks That Could Win if Oil Really Breaks Lower  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

March 16, 2026   |   Read online Details on OpenAI's IPO Filing BONUS: 3 Small-Cap Stocks That Could Win if Oil Really Breaks Lower A message from our friends at The Oxford Club (Sponsor) OpenAI IPO Filing - Ticker Revealed I probably shouldn't be sending you this... But in this video America's #1 investor, Karim Rahemtulla shows a leaked document that reveals something about OpenAI's upcoming trillion-dollar IPO. Karim is giving away a complementary ticker symbol that gives you pre-IPO exposure to OpenAI... Fair warning: This video reveals information that powerful people would prefer you didn't see. And I cannot guarantee you access for long... If you don't see this in the next few hours, you'll probably miss the biggest opportunities since Amazon went public in 1997. Click here to watch this urgent briefing before it's taken down Yours in smart speculation, Stephen Prior, Publisher Monument Traders Alliance BONUS ARTICLE 3 Small-Cap Stocks That Could Win if Oil Really Breaks Lower This is one of those moments where the headline and the setup are not the same thing. The headline says oil is still expensive. Reuters reported on Monday, March 16, that Brent settled at $100.21 a barrel and WTI at $93.50 even after a sharp one-day pullback, as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption continued to whipsaw energy markets. The setup says something different. Despite the war premium, several credible longer-range 2026 oil outlooks are still built around oversupply, not shortage. Reuters reported in November that Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $56 and WTI $52 in 2026 because of a roughly 2 million barrel-per-day market surplus, while another Reuters poll said U.S. crude is projected to average about $59 in 2026 and cited expected global oversupply of 0.5 to 4.2 million barrels per day. That is why this topic matters. You are not buying an oil crash that has already happened. You are building a watchlist for the names that stand to benefit if crude normalizes lower once the war premium burns off. And for Cheap Investor readers, the best hunting ground is not giant mega-cap winners everybody already knows. It is smaller companies with real oil sensitivity, real operating leverage, and still-reasonable valuations. My top three U.S. small-cap names for that setup are: Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Koppers Holdings (KOP) Not because they are all perfect. But because each has a plausible, measurable mechanism for turning lower oil into better margins, better cash generation, or a better multiple. Scoreboard: why this trade exists at all Let's start with the macro mechanics. The "oil crash beneficiaries" trade only works if you believe today's high oil is temporary and that the medium-term oversupply thesis still matters. That is not a fringe view. Reuters reported that Goldman's 2026 base case still calls for Brent at $56 and WTI at $52, and that some analysts see the market facing one of the largest surpluses of the cycle as long-delayed projects finally come online and OPEC+ output remains elevated. Reuters' November poll also cited the International Energy Agency implying a 4.09 million barrel-per-day surplus in 2026. That matters because when oil breaks lower, the winners are usually not the oil stocks. They are the fuel buyers. They are the logistics-heavy manufacturers. They are the companies where energy and transportation costs are large enough to matter, but where Wall Street is not already paying for the benefit. That is exactly the sort of setup Cheap Investor readers should care about. The real reason this trade is interesting There are two big mistakes people make when they play lower oil. The first is they buy companies where lower oil does not really matter because pricing resets immediately. The second is they buy giant obvious winners where the market already understands the sensitivity. I would rather own smaller-cap names where: the fuel or feedstock line is material, the business already works at current prices, and lower oil simply improves the math. That is the point of this list. It is not a bet on wild turnarounds. It is a bet on operating leverage. 1) Sun Country Airlines (SNCY): the cleanest small-cap fuel-leverage setup Sun Country is my favorite pure small-cap lower-oil beneficiary on the board right now. The stock trades around $15.62, with a market cap of about $629.7 million and a trailing P/E of 10.8x. That is already interesting before you even get to the oil sensitivity. The company's 2025 results show a business that is not broken, but also not fully priced like a premium airline. Sun Country reported full-year 2025 revenue of $1.127 billion, up 4.7%, with adjusted net income of $60.5 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.10, up 4.8%. In Q4, revenue rose to $281.0 million, up 7.9%, even though operating income fell as costs rose faster than revenue. Now here is the fuel angle. For full-year 2025, Sun Country's aircraft fuel expense was $213.5 million, or about 19% of total revenue. The company burned 84.6 million gallons for the year, and its fuel cost per gallon excluding derivatives was $2.56, down from $2.77 in 2024. Even with that lower realized annual per-gallon cost, aircraft fuel still represented a major operating line item. The company explicitly notes that fuel volatility materially affects comparability and margins. That is why SNCY is such a straightforward lower-oil play. If oil and jet fuel break lower, Sun Country does not need heroic demand assumptions to benefit. It already has three engines—scheduled service, charter, and cargo—and it is not priced like a market darling. The business is diversified enough to survive, but still fuel-sensitive enough that cheaper jet fuel can matter a lot. There is another subtle advantage here. Sun Country is not just a leisure airline. Its cargo operation has been growing fast. The company said Q4 cargo revenue increased 67.9%, and charter revenue rose 18.0%. That gives it more flexibility than a plain-vanilla consumer airline, but it still leaves the company with plenty of fuel exposure. Is it cheap? At 10.8x earnings and a sub-$630 million market cap, Sun Country looks like the kind of stock that does not need a miracle. It just needs a cleaner cost environment. For Cheap Investor readers, that is the appeal. You are not buying "AI for aviation" or some narrative stock. You are buying a real airline with a real fuel bill and a low-teens-or-better earnings setup if fuel and unit economics cooperate. The risk This is still an airline. If demand weakens, yields slip, or charter/cargo normalization gets worse, lower fuel alone will not save the stock. And Sun Country's Q4 already showed what happens when costs grow faster than revenue—operating income can compress quickly. But among true small caps, this is one of the cleanest lower-oil setups available. 2) Allegiant Travel (ALGT): uglier chart, bigger torque Allegiant is the messier version of the lower-oil airline trade. That is exactly why it belongs on this list. The stock trades around $74.64, with a market cap of about $1.12 billion. The trailing earnings profile looks distorted right now, with the finance tool showing a negative P/E because of recent consolidated losses and charges. That ugliness is part of the opportunity. Under the surface, Allegiant's airline business still has real scale. The company reported 2025 airline operating revenue of $2.546 billion, up 4.3% year over year, and total consolidated operating revenue of $2.607 billion, up 3.7%. Q4 airline operating revenue was $656.2 million, up 7.6%. Adjusted airline-only operating margin for 2025 was 7.4%. The fuel sensitivity is also obvious. Allegiant reported a full-year 2025 estimated average fuel cost per gallon of $2.55 and Q4 fuel cost per gallon of $2.61. More importantly, fuel expense per available seat mile was 2.99 cents in 2025. That was down from 3.31 cents in 2024, a 9.7% improvement, which helped the airline's operating-cost profile. That is the key. The business has already shown that lower fuel improves the math. And because Allegiant is a more controversial, more operationally complicated story than Sun Country, the market is much less willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. That can be frustrating. It can also be where value hides. This is where the Cheap Investor angle gets interesting. Allegiant's passenger base kept growing. Q4 passengers rose 13.2% and full-year 2025 passengers rose 10.3% to 18.7 million. That says the demand engine is still functioning. If fuel breaks lower again and stays lower, the company gets a double benefit: direct fuel savings and improved leisure-travel affordability at the consumer level. Is it cheap? This is not statistically cheap in the neat, low-P/E sense because the consolidated numbers are messy. But it is the classic "expectations-reset cheap" setup. The business is still large enough to matter, still fuel-intensive enough to benefit, and still unloved enough that a cleaner oil tape can help both fundamentals and sentiment. The risk This one has more moving parts than Sun Country. Allegiant has had special charges, balance-sheet complexity, and non-airline noise in recent years. If you want clean and boring, this is not your stock. But if you want torque to lower oil inside a small-cap market value, Allegiant has it. 3) Koppers Holdings (KOP): the under-the-radar industrial oil beneficiary Koppers is the least obvious name on this list. That is exactly why I like it. The stock trades around $38.44, with a market cap of roughly $552.0 million and a trailing P/E of 34.3x on depressed reported EPS. At first glance, Koppers does not scream "oil crash winner." But look closer. Koppers is a specialty industrial and chemicals company operating in treated wood products, preservation chemicals, and carbon materials. In its latest results, the company explicitly said its Performance Chemicals segment and parts of the broader business benefited from lower raw material and logistics costs. In Q4, management said lower raw material and logistics costs partly offset lower volumes in Performance Chemicals, while its Railroad and Utility segment saw EBITDA growth helped by $7.3 million of lower operating expenses and lower SG&A. This is what makes Koppers interesting for a lower-oil watchlist. It is not only a fuel buyer. It is a company whose cost stack includes freight and oil-linked or energy-sensitive raw materials. And because it is not a consumer-facing oil trade, it is less likely to be crowded. The latest numbers show a business that is far from broken. Koppers reported 2025 net sales of $1.879 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $256.7 million, adjusted EPS of $4.07, and operating cash flow of $122.5 million. For Q4, adjusted EBITDA was $53.2 million on $432.7 million of revenue. The company also said its Catalyst program generated about $46 million of benefits in 2025. This matters because if oil and transport costs fall, Koppers does not need to invent a new growth engine. It simply needs cheaper inputs and better cost absorption. There is a second angle too: Koppers' Railroad and Utility segment is tied to utility poles and infrastructure, which gives it some non-energy-cycle ballast. The company highlighted utility-pole volume growth and expects demand support from electrical infrastructure buildouts. That makes it a less fragile lower-oil play than a purely cyclical chemicals name. Is it cheap? This one is trickier. On the surface, the reported trailing P/E looks high because GAAP EPS is suppressed relative to adjusted earnings. But on adjusted figures, Koppers looks much more reasonable: $4.07 of adjusted 2025 EPS against a stock price in the upper $30s is a very different picture than the headline multiple implies. The company's own 2026 guidance, as reported by market coverage, points to continued earnings recovery and cash flow improvement. That is what makes KOP a genuine Cheap Investor name. It is not obvious. It is not glamorous. And lower oil can help in places the average screen will miss. The risk Koppers is not a pure oil trade. If end-market volumes weaken or pricing gets hyper-competitive, lower oil alone will not carry the whole story. Management already warned about price erosion in some areas. Still, as a small-cap industrial beneficiary of lower raw material and logistics costs, it deserves a spot on the list. So which of the three is the best buy? Here is my Cheap Investor ranking: Best pure lower-oil setup: Sun Country Fuel is big, the valuation is clean, and the market cap is still small enough for the stock to move if margins improve. Best higher-torque contrarian setup: Allegiant Messier, riskier, but if you want a more dramatic rebound profile when oil normalizes, this is the one with more sentiment leverage. Best underfollowed industrial setup: Koppers Not the obvious oil trade, but maybe the most underappreciated one. Lower logistics and feedstock costs plus an already-improving transformation story is a good combination. Bull / Base / Bear Bull case The war premium fades, oil retreats toward the lower 2026 path many analysts expected before the recent spike, and Brent/WTI begin moving back toward the $56/$52 type framework Goldman laid out or the roughly $59 U.S. crude path Reuters' poll highlighted. In that world, SNCY and ALGT get margin help and KOP gets cost relief. Base case Oil stays volatile but eventually settles below current panic levels, maybe not "crash" territory but far enough down to ease margin pressure. The beneficiaries still improve, just less dramatically. Bear case The war drags on, Hormuz disruptions worsen, and oil remains high enough that the lower-2026 oversupply thesis gets pushed out. In that case, the whole "oil crash beneficiary" basket remains dead money or worse in the short run. Reuters still reports active risks around Hormuz, tanker transit, and production shut-ins, so this is not a fake risk. Action plan for bargain hunters Do not buy these names because you think oil is definitely crashing tomorrow. Buy them only if you want exposure to a medium-term normalization in oil and a re-rating in names that would directly benefit. My framework would be: Start with Sun Country if you want the cleanest expression. Use Allegiant as a smaller tactical add-on if you are comfortable with messier financial optics. Use Koppers as the industrial diversifier if you want lower-oil exposure without making the whole basket airlines. And do not back up the truck all at once. This is a classic 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 setup: one-third now if you believe lower oil returns later in 2026, one-third on another energy panic if these names get hit, one-third only if crude actually starts breaking lower and the market begins rewarding the beneficiaries. Cheap Investor checklist Track these over the next few weeks: Brent and WTI versus the current roughly $100.21 and $93.50 levels. Whether 2026 consensus oil forecasts keep pointing to oversupply near the 2.0 to 4.09 mbpd range. Sun Country fuel cost per gallon and aircraft fuel expense trends. Allegiant fuel expense per ASM and average fuel cost per gallon. Koppers raw material and logistics cost commentary in the next quarter. Whether airline demand stays firm enough to let lower fuel flow through to margins. Sun Country and Allegiant both showed healthy passenger or revenue trends in 2025. Market caps and valuation resets: SNCY $629.7M, ALGT $1.12B, KOP $552.0M. Whether the market starts rotating into fuel-sensitive small caps once oil volatility fades. Bottom line The cleanest way to play an oil crash is usually not through oil. It is through the smaller companies that buy fuel, freight, or energy-sensitive inputs in size. For me, the top three U.S. small-cap names to watch are: Sun Country for the cleanest small-cap airline fuel leverage. Allegiant for the uglier but higher-torque contrarian airline play. Koppers for the quieter industrial/feedstock angle that most screens will miss. That is the Cheap Investor verdict: If oil really breaks lower, these are not the only names that can win. But they are three of the more interesting small-cap ways to get paid without chasing the obvious trade. Disclaimer: This editorial is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions. IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER Investing Media Solutions, LLC ("IMS"), the owner of this website (the "Website"), cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in any article, email, newsletter, or other publication posted on or viewed in connection with this website (the "Publications"). The author or authors of those Publications are solely responsible for their contents. IMS has not done any research or due diligence into the markets, industries, or companies which may appear or be mentioned in the Publications. IMS will NOT be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information posted on the Website or contained in the Publications. FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. This Website and the Publications are for educational and informational purposes only. This Website and the Publications do not purport to be a complete analysis of any company's financial position. This Website, the Publications or any statements made in the Publications are not, and should not be construed to be, personalized investment advice directed to or appropriate for any particular individual. This Website or the statements made in the Publications should NOT be relied upon for purposes of transacting in any securities posted on the Website or mentioned in the Publications, nor should they be construed as a personalized recommendation to you to buy, sell, or hold any position in any security posted on this Website or mentioned in any Publications. SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN INVESTMENT. Any individual who chooses to invest in any securities including those mentioned in the Publications should do so with caution. Investing or transacting in securities involves substantial risk; you may lose some, all, or possibly more than your original investment. Readers bear responsibility for their own investment research and decisions and should review all investment decisions with a licensed or registered investment professional. NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER Neither IMS nor any of its respective owners or employees are registered or licensed as a securities broker-dealer, broker, an investment advisor, or an investment advisor representative with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), any state securities regulatory authority, or any self-regulatory organization. To more fully understand our Website, please review our full disclaimer located at: https://thecheapinvestor.com/disclaimer/ At The Cheap Investor, it's our mission to create and provide a community that helps you invest and understand stocks. When TheCheapInvestor was established, we wanted to make the community an inclusive place where investors can come to get ahead! Not just help them with daily stock picks. The Cheap Investor are provided to you for information only and should not be considered as a stock or investment advisor. The Cheap Investor may make available certain information related to trading strategies and stock prices for educational and information purposes only; any information made available should not be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, or sponsorship of any company or security. By visiting this site or using the training materials, you acknowledge and agree that any reliance upon the content or data available through The Cheap Investor is at your own sole risk. You are strongly advised to use your own judgment, research, and consult a professional advisor. Over the years, and with thousands of followers that use our stock picks daily, we promise to always aim to get better at what we do every single day! In addition, our primary focus is on our communication with you. It's really important to us that every time you come to us, you end up leaving with the help you came for to take your investment portfolio to new levels. We particularly appreciate when our following provides feedback via testimonials, reviews, and comments left on our site or social media accounts. Because with that feedback, we can use it to make your next visit to our site even better than the last! Since we put so much effort into the relationship with you, we hope that any investment in us is exactly the way you hoped it would be. Because by choosing to go with https://TheCheapInvestor.com/, it's our promise that we provide a community you will come back to over and over again. Now, as much as we care about making investors more successful, we also care about your privacy. TheCheapInvestor is owned and operated by TheCheapInvestor website. We're committed to the right to your privacy and strive to provide a safe and secure user experience. Our Privacy Policy explains how we collect, store and use personal information, provided by you on our website. What Information Do We Collect? When you visit our Web site you may provide us with two types of information: personal information you knowingly choose to disclose that is collected on an individual basis and Web site use information collected on an aggregate basis as you and others browse our Web site. For example, you may need to provide the following information: • Name • Website URL information • Email address • Home and business phone number In addition to providing the foregoing information, if you choose to correspond further with us through email, we may retain the content of your email messages together with your email address and our responses. We provide the same protections for these electronic communications that we employ in the maintenance of information received by mail and telephone. It also explains important information that ensures we won't abuse the information that you provide to us in good faith. By accessing and using our website, you can trust that what you want to be kept private, will be kept private. If at any time, you would like to read our Privacy Policy and get a better understanding of your rights and liabilities under the law. Feel free to visit our site, find the privacy policy in the footer and read it. If there is something you are concerned about or wish to get more clarity on, please let us know by contacting us at support@thecheapinvestor.com. The Privacy Policy also informs you of how to notify us to stop using your personal information. If you wish to view our official policies, please visit our website https://TheCheapInvestor.com/ At The Cheap Investor, we are strongly committed to protecting your privacy and providing a safe & high-quality online experience for all of our visitors. We understand that you care about how the information you provide to us is used and shared. We have developed a Privacy Policy to inform you of our policies regarding the collection, use, and disclosure of information we receive from users of our website. The Cheap Investor operates the Website. Our Privacy Policy, along with our Term & Conditions, governs your use of this site. By using https://TheCheapInvestor/, or by accepting the Terms of Use (via opt-in, checkbox, pop-up, or clicking an email link confirming the same), you agree to be bound by our Terms & Conditions and our Privacy Policy. If you have provided personal, billing, or other voluntarily provided information, you may access, review, and make changes to it via instructions found on the Website or by emailing us at support@thecheapinvestor.com. To manage your receipt of marketing and non-transactional communications, you may unsubscribe by clicking the "unsubscribe" link located on the bottom of any marketing email. Emails related to the purchase or delivery of orders are provided automatically – Customers are not able to opt out of transactional emails. We will try to accommodate any requests related to the management of Personal Information in a timely manner. However, it is not always possible to completely remove or modify information in our databases (for example, if we have a legal obligation to keep it for certain timeframes, for example). If you have any questions, simply reply to this email or visit our website to view our official policies. Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 The Cheap Investor 203 N La Salle Suite 2100 Chicago , Illinois 60601, United States Powered by beehiiv Terms of Service