One number in Louisiana just changed what your grocery bill looks like this fall.
Urea fertilizer hit $680 a metric ton at New Orleans this week. Two weeks ago it was $475. That's a 43% jump. In two weeks. | I can't stop thinking about this. Not because of the number itself. Because of what it means for your grocery bill six months from now. | Here's what worries me. Most people are watching the Strait of Hormuz and thinking about gas. They're right to. But gas is the fast pain. The slow pain is coming in a different truck, and almost nobody is watching that truck. | One third of the world's fertilizer supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Right now, that strait is effectively closed. Ships aren't moving. Fertilizer isn't moving. And right now, today, American corn and soybean farmers are staring at their fields and making decisions about what to plant this spring. They buy fertilizer now. They plant in weeks. The harvest hits stores in the fall. | I get it. The war is loud. Gas prices are loud. A 43% jump in something called "urea" at a trading hub in Louisiana does not make the evening news. But the evening news is not where your food bill lives. Your food bill lives in those fields. And the farmers standing in those fields are doing math right now that does not look good. | Elon Musk's Crazy Prediction: 1,000X Your Money | | Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here. | That turns $100 into $100,000… | $500 into half a million dollars… | And a tiny stake of $1,000 into $1 million. | Click here to get the details because this could be the best investment opportunity of the decade. | | The New Orleans hub matters because it's the single largest inland fertilizer market in the country. What gets priced there gets priced everywhere. When that number moves, the whole country moves with it. Farmers who locked in contracts early got lucky. Farmers who didn't are looking at input costs that blew up their budget for the season. Some will plant less. Some will skip fertilizer and accept lower yields. Either way, less food comes out the other end. | I don't think most people realize that gas prices and food prices travel on different clocks. The gas hit from Hormuz is about 30 days away. You'll feel it at the pump first. People will be angry. Politicians will talk. Then, slowly, people will adjust. They'll think the crisis is fading. They'll move on. And that's exactly when the food inflation arrives. Six to nine months from now. Right when everyone thinks it's old news. | Nobody knows how bad it gets. I want to be honest with you about that. If the strait reopens next week, some of this unwinds. If it stays closed through planting season, farmers make hard choices and those choices ripple forward into every grocery store in America. Corn. Soybeans. Everything fed on corn and soybeans. Which is most of the meat in your refrigerator. | We've been through food inflation before. We know what it feels like. Prices go up. You notice. You cut somewhere else. It's not dramatic. It's just grinding. And the grinding part is that it hits the people who can least absorb it the hardest. A family already stretched thin doesn't have room for cereal to cost thirty percent more. That's not abstract. That's real. | The number I keep coming back to is 43. Not $680. Not the Strait of Hormuz. Just 43. A 43% price jump in two weeks. Tell that to your buddy at dinner and watch his face. That's the number that makes it real. | Our fields are making a decision right now. The decision gets made whether we're watching or not. The food that comes out the other side of that decision will be on our tables in the fall. And I think we're going to look back at this moment and wish more people were paying attention. | More on this tomorrow. | — Lauren
Editor, American Ledger |
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