BONUS: How to trade my Opening Bell Profit Plan  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

March 17, 2026   |   Read online Affirm Is a Fed-Tone Trade Now: Cheap Setup... or Hawkish Trap? BONUS: How to trade my Opening Bell Profit Plan First message from our friends at Base Camp Trading (Sponsor) How to trade my Opening Bell Profit Plan Hi, Let's get technical for a moment. I want to pull back the curtain and show you the engine behind Thomas Wood's Opening Bell Profit Plan. It's a pattern I call 'The Market Springboard.' Here's how it works in 3 simple steps: Step 1: Compression (9:00 - 9:30 a.m. ET) In the pre-market, institutional orders build up, creating a tight, coiled range. Think of it like a spring being pushed down. Price action is flat, quiet. Step 2: The Break (9:30 a.m. ET) At the opening bell, that coiled energy has to go somewhere. The institutional orders flood the market, and the price breaks out of the compression zone with immense force. Step 3: Expansion (9:30 - 9:50 a.m. ET) The price explodes in one direction, creating a powerful, fast-moving trend. This is the 'springboard' effect. Our goal is to capture the bulk of this expansion. We're not guessing. We're not predicting. We are simply identifying a state of price compression and positioning ourselves to profit from the inevitable expansion. This pattern is responsible for my documented 70% win rate. It's the reason we can target $300-$500 in just 20 minutes. In this fast-paced interview, I walk through several more examples of this exact setup, trade by trade. If you want to truly understand the mechanics of this strategy, you need to see it. Watch the full breakdown here. Sincerely, Thomas Wood Head of Trading Operations, Base Camp Trading FEATURED ARTICLE Affirm Is a Fed-Tone Trade Now: Cheap Setup… or Hawkish Trap? Affirm is the kind of stock that can look brilliant in a soft-rate world and strangely fragile in a hawkish one. That is the setup heading into the Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee meets March 17–18, 2026, and Reuters says policymakers are broadly expected to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The problem for Affirm is that the market no longer cares only about the hold. It cares about whether the Fed's language, dots, and inflation posture push the next real cut further out into the year. Reuters reported on March 12 that Goldman Sachs pushed its next-cut call to September from June because higher oil prices renewed inflation concerns. That matters because Affirm is not just a fintech growth story anymore. It is a duration-sensitive consumer-credit stock wearing a growth multiple. As of the latest finance data, AFRM trades around $47.69, with a market cap of roughly $24.6 billion and a trailing P/E near 78.5x. So the Cheap Investor question is not whether Affirm is a good business. The real question is: How much of that business is worth paying for if the Fed keeps a higher-for-longer tone alive? Scoreboard: what actually matters right now Let's start with the numbers under the hood. Affirm's latest reported quarter, fiscal Q2 2026, was strong on the surface. The company reported: Gross Merchandise Volume of $13.8 billion, up 36% year over year Revenue of $1.123 billion, up 30% Net income of $129.6 million, up 61% Adjusted operating income of $337 million strong growth in Affirm Card and repeat usage. User metrics were also strong in recent coverage: Active consumers rose to about 23.5 million, up 23% Transactions per active customer increased 20% to 6.4 Active merchant count rose 42% to about 478,000. Those are not distressed-business numbers. They are the numbers of a platform still expanding fast. And that is exactly why the stock is dangerous around the Fed. When a company is growing this quickly, investors tend to forgive a lot—until the macro regime turns against the valuation framework. The real reason a hawkish Fed hurts BNPL faster than people think The obvious answer is "higher rates are bad for lending." That is true. It is also too simple. A hawkish Fed hurts Affirm through three different channels at once. 1. Funding stays expensive Affirm is not a bank in the traditional deposit-funded sense. It relies on capital markets, forward-flow arrangements, warehouse funding, securitization, and loan sales as part of its operating model. That means the price of money matters. When the Fed stays tighter for longer, the cost of financing receivables and the discount rate used by investors who buy those receivables both become more painful. Even if Affirm keeps originating loans and GMV grows, the economics of funding that growth get harder. This is why "no cut" or "cut later" matters more than the headline rate hold itself. A hold with a soft tone can be manageable. A hold with a hawkish tone can effectively tighten conditions without a hike. Reuters noted last week that the oil shock has complicated the Fed's ability to cut and that investors increasingly expect reductions only later in 2026, if at all. For Affirm, that is not academic. That is operating backdrop. 2. Consumer credit risk becomes more sensitive BNPL investors like to frame the category as safer than revolving credit because the installments are shorter duration and often tied to real purchase intent rather than open-ended borrowing. There is truth in that. The Richmond Fed noted that BNPL charge-off rates have historically remained relatively low, citing a 1.83% BNPL charge-off rate in 2023, versus 4.19% for credit card loans at U.S. commercial banks in the fourth quarter of 2023. But that does not make BNPL immune. A hawkish Fed can still hurt consumers through tighter labor conditions, persistently high borrowing costs elsewhere, and weaker discretionary spending. That creates a tricky mix for Affirm: transaction growth may remain decent, but the market becomes less willing to assume pristine credit quality if household stress rises. That is part of why Reuters' Klarna coverage from last week is relevant even though it is a peer, not Affirm. Reuters said broader BNPL investors remain worried about credit quality and provisioning risk as the category matures under uncertain macro conditions. 3. The multiple gets interrogated This is the most underappreciated part. Affirm is not trading like a sleepy lender. At nearly 78.5x trailing earnings, it is trading like a growth company that still deserves benefit-of-the-doubt economics. When the Fed sounds hawkish, the market tends to reprice exactly those kinds of stocks first: long-duration growth names, consumer-credit names, and businesses where future margin expansion matters a lot to the thesis. Affirm sits in all three buckets. So a hawkish tone can hurt AFRM even if the quarter itself was excellent. Deep dive: what Affirm actually is now If you still think Affirm is just "buy now, pay later," you are missing the business model evolution. Affirm today is really a blend of: integrated merchant checkout financing, interest-bearing consumer installment loans, 0% promotional merchant-funded offers, an increasingly important Affirm Card ecosystem, and a repeat-usage network that is trying to become a broader payment and commerce platform. A recent analyst summary noted that roughly: about 35% of revenue comes from merchant fees, about 50% from interest income, with the rest from loan sales, servicing, and related economics. That mix matters because it tells you Affirm is not only a "rates story." It is also a merchant adoption story and a consumer frequency story. And right now, those are both still working. The Affirm Card is one of the clearest examples. Coverage of the latest quarter showed: Affirm Card GMV up 159% active cardholders up 121% 0% deals on the card up 190%. That says the company is not standing still. It is broadening beyond pure checkout BNPL into a more persistent spending product. That is exactly what bulls want to see. Data section: why the stock is both attractive and dangerous Now let's get to the key Cheap Investor tension. The bullish data Affirm's recent operating numbers are legitimately strong: GMV up 36% revenue up 30% net income up 61% active consumers up 23% transactions per customer up 20%. That is real momentum. This is not a business limping along on hype. It is scaling. The valuation problem But the stock is also not cheap in the classic sense. At about $47.69, AFRM carries: a $24.6 billion market cap, a trailing P/E of 78.5x, and the market's expectation that growth and profitability keep compounding. That means the stock does not need bad earnings to fall. It only needs a macro setup that makes investors less willing to pay for future growth. A hawkish Fed tone can do exactly that. The rates sensitivity problem Reuters' March 12 broker roundup is especially important here. Goldman moved its cut expectation to September, and the broader message from the piece was clear: higher oil and inflation uncertainty are making it easier for Wall Street to delay the rate-cut calendar. That is the exact kind of backdrop that can hit BNPL stocks even if consumer demand is holding up okay in the short run. Because the market starts asking: what funding costs look like, how resilient credit stays, and whether the multiple should compress. A unique perspective: Affirm is really a "Fed tone vs. execution" stock Most people frame this wrong. They say: "If the Fed doesn't hike, Affirm should be fine." That is too shallow. Affirm does not just trade on the level of rates. It trades on the gap between company execution and macro skepticism. Right now, execution is good. Very good, actually. The question is whether the Fed lets that good execution matter. If Powell and company sound cautious, data-dependent, and patient, the market can still reward a company growing GMV in the mid-30s with strong repeat usage. If the statement, projections, or press conference suggest inflation risks are reasserting themselves and cuts are slipping deeper into 2026, then investors may decide they would rather own infrastructure, banks, or defensives than a premium-multiple BNPL stock. So the real trade is: Can Affirm's operating momentum outrun hawkish macro tone? That is a much more interesting question than "did they beat earnings?" Is it cheap? Now the part that matters. By traditional valuation standards, no. Affirm is not cheap. A near-80x trailing multiple is not a bargain-bin setup. But Cheap Investor readers know there are multiple versions of "cheap": low-multiple cheap expectations-reset cheap quality growth temporarily discounted by macro fear Affirm is not the first one. It could become the third one if the Fed knocks the stock around without breaking the underlying growth story. That is the key distinction. Right now, AFRM is still priced like a premium grower. If the Fed turns hawkish and the stock sells off materially while GMV, revenue, user growth, and card adoption remain intact, that is when the Cheap Investor setup starts getting interesting. Today, I would describe it this way: Great business momentum. Fed-sensitive valuation. Not obviously cheap—yet. Bull, base, and bear Bull case The Fed holds and sounds careful but not aggressively hawkish. Markets keep believing at least one cut is still plausible later in 2026. Affirm's strong growth metrics remain the focus, the stock absorbs macro noise, and investors continue rewarding the company for building a broader payments ecosystem beyond classic BNPL. Base case The Fed holds, the tone is mixed, and AFRM chops around. Investors acknowledge the strong quarter but remain unwilling to expand the multiple until the rate path becomes clearer. In that setup, the stock may stay volatile but fundamentally supported. Bear case The Fed sounds hawkish enough that September-or-later cuts become the market baseline, or the dot plot hardens. BNPL stocks sell off as funding-cost anxiety, credit caution, and duration compression hit at once. In that scenario, Affirm's operating strength may not save the stock in the short run. Action plan for bargain hunters This is not a "buy before the Fed and hope" setup. That would be lazy. For conservative investors, the smarter move is to let the meeting happen and see whether the stock reacts more to the tone than to its own fundamentals. If AFRM gets hit on macro language while business momentum remains unchanged, the setup improves. For moderate investors, this is a watchlist stock, not a blind-entry stock. I would want one of two things: either a softer Fed tone that keeps the growth multiple credible, or a macro-driven selloff big enough to create an actual valuation reset. For aggressive investors, the trade is cleaner: hawkish tone = likely pressure on BNPL, at least initially. Cheap Investor checklist Watch these right after the Fed: Whether the Fed keeps rates at 3.50%–3.75%, as expected. Whether the statement or projections push the market further toward a September cut or later. AFRM's reaction relative to the current $47.69 price. Whether investors refocus on Affirm's $13.8 billion GMV and $1.123 billion revenue growth after the Fed dust settles. Credit-quality commentary across BNPL peers like Klarna and PayPal. Continued traction in the Affirm Card and repeat transactions. Whether the stock's premium multiple compresses enough to create a real bargain. Bottom line Affirm is one of the clearest stocks on the board where Fed tone matters almost as much as company execution. The company is still putting up serious numbers: GMV up 36%, revenue up 30%, and active users still climbing. But the stock is also carrying a valuation that leaves little room for a hawkish macro surprise. So here is the Cheap Investor verdict: Affirm is a strong operator. It is not a traditional value stock. And any hawkish signal from the Fed's start could absolutely trigger a BNPL sell-off—because the multiple is still doing a lot of work. Disclaimer: This editorial is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions. 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