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This Month's Exclusive Story CrowdStrike's Floor Test After Fortinet's Upgrade: What Comes Next?Author: Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 2/2/2026. 
Key Points- Fortinet’s bullish analyst upgrade lifted the cybersecurity sector and may signal a valuation floor for CRWD stock.
- Despite AI-related concerns such as “vibe coding,” CrowdStrike’s strong ARR growth suggests that demand for cybersecurity remains durable.
- With shares near key support ahead of earnings, CRWD stock could be approaching an inflection point for investors.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) stock has fallen nearly 8% year-to-date amid broader market pressures. The wider slump in technology stocks has become particularly concentrated in software names, including several of the top cybersecurity companies. Analyst sentiment suggests CRWD may be finding a floor ahead of its March earnings report. That idea began to play out on Jan. 23 when Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ: FTNT) received a bullish upgrade from TD Cowen. The firm raised its rating on FTNT to Buy from Hold and set a $100 target. In the immediate aftermath, FTNT shares powered higher, lifting the sector — including CrowdStrike. That sector momentum heading into earnings season could provide support for CRWD and suggests parts of the cybersecurity space may be undervalued. If so, CRWD could present an attractive entry point. Is AI Really a Threat to Cybersecurity?Beyond valuation concerns, cybersecurity stocks like CRWD are being weighed down by worries about how artificial intelligence (AI) will affect software demand. One specific fear is so-called "vibe coding," where developers lean on tools such as Cursor or GitHub Copilot to build prototypes quickly. The worry is that as AI automates routine coding, vendors will have fewer billable "seats" or endpoints to charge for, reducing demand for traditional endpoint solutions. But not all software is the same. Cybersecurity products must meet strict industry standards — for example, NIST 800-53, SOC 2 and zero-trust frameworks require audited, deterministic controls, not probabilistic AI outputs that can hallucinate. That regulatory and compliance burden makes cybersecurity a different category from general-purpose development tools. It's also premature to assume AI will reduce the total addressable market for security vendors. Historically, major technology shifts have eliminated some roles while creating new ones. Y2K compliance and later cloud migrations spawned a large security and compliance industry — and AI could have a similar effect. In its most recent quarter, CrowdStrike reported $265 million in net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), up 73% year over year — early evidence that AI may be amplifying, not eroding, CrowdStrike's revenue base. What Analysts Are Thinking, But Not SayingAnalysts understand these dynamics. But cybersecurity stocks are trading at elevated multiples. At roughly 29x forward sales, CrowdStrike's valuation looks high. Still, the sticky retention and breadth of the Falcon platform can justify a premium when threats evolve rapidly. For now, the market appears to be shaking out the loose hands — and that appears to be a key driver of the recent CRWD sell-off. Does that mean investors should buy the stock blindly? Probably not. CRWD doesn't report earnings until March 3, and a lot can change between now and then. If CrowdStrike can use its upcoming report to show that the broader software worries don't apply to its business, the stock could be primed for a strong rally. CRWD Stock at an Inflection PointBefore the recent sell-off, CRWD was breaking out of a bearish pattern that had been in place since November 2025. The stock has since slipped back below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that acted as resistance on two occasions in 2025. Key support aligns with prior lows around $413; a break below that could put the psychologically important $400 level in play. 
The stock is showing some signs of being oversold, but a cautious approach before earnings seems warranted. Once CrowdStrike reports, investors should have clearer evidence of AI's impact on its future growth and profitability.
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