What Changed? | The labor market looks steady on the surface. Payroll growth slows, but layoffs do not surge. Yet a key variable is shifting in the background: labor supply from immigration. | New U.S. Census Bureau estimates show net international migration falling sharply, to 1.3 million in the year ending June 2025 from 2.7 million the prior year. That is a meaningful change in how many workers the economy can absorb without showing stress in the usual places. | | The $4B Deal Everyday Investors Missed | | After a 10-year legal effort, Elf Labs secured historic rights to 500+ iconic IP assets, including Cinderella and Snow White – and are bringing them to life through patented immersive media, gaming, and consumer products — a market estimated at over $2 trillion. | Valuation has grown 17x (a 1,600% increase) in less than two years, and the company just reserved its Nasdaq ticker: $ELFS. Shares remain available at $2.25/share (plus up to 35% bonus shares) while the company is still private. | | | The Numbers | Net international migration: 1.3 million (year ending June 2025), down from 2.7 million the year before. Nonfarm payrolls: +50,000 in December 2025. Unemployment rate: 4.4% in December 2025. Labor force participation rate: 62.4% in December 2025. Average hourly earnings: +3.8% year over year in December 2025. CPI inflation: +2.7% year over year in December 2025; core CPI: +2.6%.
| | Why It Matters | Investors often treat wages as a demand story: if growth slows, wage pressure fades. But wages are set at the margin, where labor demand meets labor supply. Immigration is one of the few supply-side inputs that can change quickly enough to matter within a year. | When labor supply expands, employers can hire without bidding up pay as aggressively. That can cool wage growth even if unemployment stays low. It also helps explain why the labor market can look "resilient" while inflation trends improve. | When labor supply tightens, the opposite dynamic can emerge. A modest payroll gain can still coincide with firmer wage bargaining, especially in services where labor is the main cost. That matters for inflation because service prices are often driven by compensation trends, not commodity inputs. | This is the part many market narratives underweight. Layoffs are a late-cycle signal. Labor supply is an earlier one. If net inflows remain lower, the economy may need less job growth to keep unemployment stable, but it may also face more wage pressure for any given level of demand. | | Takeaway | The labor market can look calm in the headlines while the supply side quietly reshapes wage and inflation outcomes. If you only watch payrolls and layoffs, you may miss the variable doing the most work behind the scenes. | — Lauren
Editor, American Ledger | Resources | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2026
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2026
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm
U.S. Census Bureau, January 2026
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html | | *Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Elf Labs' Regulation CF offering. Investments in private placements, and start-up investments in particular, are long-term, illiquid, speculative and involve a high degree of risk and those investors who cannot afford to lose their entire investment should not invest in start-ups. Please read the offering circular and related risks at elflabs.com.
The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock.
Nasdaq ticker "ELFS" has been reserved by Elf Labs and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions.
Forward-looking statements appear here based on current information. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause outcomes to differ. |
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