Good morning traders...
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Click here to fix that… | | | Good morning, | I'll keep this quick because today is one of those days where everything hits at once, and you need to be locked in before the open. | NVIDIA reports after the close tonight. This is the single most important earnings print of the quarter. Consensus wants $1.52 EPS on $65.5 billion in revenue. The data center segment is expected to be at $58.7 billion. The AI capex cycle is now north of $600 billion in committed capital. If Jensen delivers and guides up on Blackwell demand, tech rips. | If he misses on margins or forward guidance, especially with the AI scare trade still fresh from Monday's Citrini selloff, we could see a fast 10 percent gap down. Salesforce also reports after the close, so we are getting a double read on enterprise AI spending. This is the trade of the quarter. | Trump delivered the State of the Union last night and doubled down hard. Tariffs will remain in place. Congressional action won't be needed. He called the economy a golden age, said tariffs will substantially replace income taxes, and said low interest rates will solve the housing problem. Markets shrugged it off. No new policy details moved the needle. Futures were flat overnight. The real risk is the 15 percent escalation timeline, which is still the key unknown. | Japan is making a big macro move that most people are sleeping on. | Prime Minister Takaichi is nominating two staunch reflationist academics to the Bank of Japan board. This is a direct move to block rate hikes. The yen sold off immediately. | USD/JPY hit 156.6 this morning. Former BoJ Governor Kuroda says 157 is too weak and the BoJ can hike to 1.5-1.75 percent, but Takaichi is stacking the board with doves. If yen weakness accelerates past 160, the carry trade unwind could hit risk assets globally. | Senator Cruz said we are likely to see limited strikes against Iran in the coming days. Trump at the SOTU said Iran is working on missiles that could reach the US. Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister says Tehran will resume talks with the US in Geneva tomorrow. Military preparation and diplomatic talks are running simultaneously. | And gold just blew past $5,200. | JPMorgan is targeting $6,300 by year-end. UBS has a near-term target of $6,200. Three forces driving it: dollar weakness, demand for geopolitical havens, and central bank buying. Shanghai Gold Exchange just cut margin ratios. This move has legs. | NVDA tonight. Iran escalation. Japan's yen is cracking. Gold surging. | Five stories, all connected, and I break down every single one of them on the show this morning at 8:45 AM ET on TheoTrade. | I'll walk you through the positioning, the levels, and exactly what I'm watching into the close. This is a day you do not want to miss. | See you there, | Garrett |
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