Rabu, 30 April 2025

Why Bleed When You Can Get In the Green?

Tomorrow at 2 PM ET, we're running The Green Guy Briefing—a live session built to help you stay profitable when the "Magnificent 7" stalls.

While the Mag 7 is down 10% YTD, we're up +4%—and we'll walk you through exactly how we did it. No guesswork. No hindsight.

✅ We'll show you the exact rotation that avoided the worst of the drop
✅ Break down May trade setups you can place before Friday
✅ Answer your questions live—no stone unturned

If you miss this, you'll be back to chasing headlines and wondering why your portfolio keeps bleeding.

👉 Add it to your calendar now.

Save the date: Tomorrow at 2 PM ET
Show up live
Leave with a playbook others will wish they had

See you there,

— Blake Young & Don Kaufman

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Bad Data Swamped the Bulls

A Bad Data Deluge Swamped Markets - And More Is Coming
By Don Kaufman

The number is in… and it wasn’t great. Today’s economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 - the first decline since 2022’s kinda-sorta recession-lite.

One more quarter of contraction and we’re in a recession.

The markets know this, and they’re not crazy about it, and what volume there was was largely into selling tech stocks. (Nvidia picked up another downgrade, but that’s a whole ‘nother story.)

We got a 38-handle decline on the S&P 500, after the bulls fought back a little at midday.

I’m surprised it wasn’t worse. I mean, these numbers were bad. The ADP jobs report was extremely weak, too, and the cherry on top was a PCE number that showed inflation is still on the hot side.

There’s more data coming, too. Nonfarm payrolls, a ton of earnings like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple.

All this comes during a week when we’ve got a $150 expected move on SPX.

Let’s take a look at what that means, how we can make sense of the price data (the data that counts at the end of the day), and how to play it…

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The Markets Are Holding It Together... For Now

Don Kaufman here.

The markets are bouncing back from what I'd call a bad data deluge of bad data, you might be wondering... how the heck is everything still holding together?

GDP's contracting, inflation's running hot, and private jobs data is looking weak — yet the markets are rallying? It's enough to make you scratch your head and say, "What gives?"

Well, here's the thing: bad might just be the new good.

Why?

Because the worse the data gets, the more likely the Fed starts cutting rates — and that's got the market moving in mysterious ways. But don't get too comfortable. Volatility is lurking, and this market is far from stable.

Want to know what's really going on and what's ahead?

Then you've got to watch the full video.

Why the Fed's next move could turn into a "double-down dovish" disaster — and why it's not happening next week.
What's keeping volatility at "big boy backwardation" levels — even as markets rally back to unchanged.
The $150 move that's still sitting in the S&Ps this week — and why it's about to explode over the next two days.
How a single tweet about China sent the market into a momentary frenzy — and what it revealed about traders' hair-trigger reactions.
Why Friday's non-farm payroll report could be the final nail in the recession coffin — and how the Fed might prioritize jobs over inflation.
The hidden danger in the volatility futures curve: Why May is "way over" July, and what it's screaming about the next 21 days.
Are the markets bracing for a crapfest or a rally? My take on why the S&Ps are calm while volatility is raging.

This market is like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride — unpredictable, hair-raising, and downright volatile. Don't get caught off guard by the twists and turns.

Click here to watch the full video and get the inside scoop.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

Tomorrow at 2 PM EST: Discover the Secret to Staying Green in a Sea of Red!

RSVP Now to Join Don Kaufman and Learn How One Man Is Quietly Up This Year While The Market Unravels!

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America’s “Suez Moment” Has Arrived

April 30, 2025

America's "Suez Moment"
Has Arrived

“Every empire suffers from hubris, arrogance and condescension, and therefore a moral blindness. That's true of the American empire, it was true of the British Empire earlier, and it will certainly be true of the Chinese Empire in the future.”

–Cornel West

Turn Your Images On

The President's aggressive agenda may be too much, took quickly…

April 30, 2025 — Don Edgar considered himself extremely lucky.

It was early in the morning on November 6, 1956, and the World War II veteran turned journalist for Britain’s Daily Express was one of just two reporters invited to witness Britain’s invasion of Egypt.

Standing on the bridge of a British warship, Edgar wrote that it was “the most impressive military operation the British had put on for many a year, with parachutists, marine commandos, tanks, aircraft, and a naval bombardment.”

Naturally he would say so. Edgar was British.

The rest of the world, however, was not terribly impressed. And the United Nations — along with the US, Canada, Australia, and more — raced to condemn Great Britain for its aggression.

Britain naturally felt justified. Egypt had recently seized the Suez Canal-- one of the most important waterways in the world linking the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.

For Britain, the Suez Canal was a critical transport route for Saudi oil, not to mention a major asset; the British government had purchased a 44% stake in the canal back in the 1870s for a mere 4 million pounds, and the annual dividend soon exceeded their entire purchase price.

So, when Egyptian President Gamal Nasser nationalized the canal in July 1956, the British weren’t willing to take that lying down. To them it felt like theft.

Prime Minister Anthony Eden called it “piracy”, and he was willing to go to war to take the canal back.

Unfortunately for Eden, he underestimated the Egyptians’ resolve to fight.

Nasser responded by blowing up dozens of transport and cargo ships, effectively clogging up the canal and rendering it useless.

Eden also didn’t count on the immense global backlash … and not just diplomatically.

It was bad enough that pretty much every country on earth, from the United States to the Soviet Union, joined together in denouncing the invasion.

Britain was also severely punished by financial markets. Foreign capital fled the country. The British pound plummeted. Both the stock market and the bond market crashed.

It was absolutely brutal. Britain’s main stock index fell 170 points, roughly 8% in the span of ten days. Bond prices fell by 15% and bond yields surged as a result.

And the British government had to burn through roughly 15% of its total foreign reserves ($279 million at the time) just to keep its economy afloat.

Britain simply didn’t have the economic resources to withstand such intense financial pressure — much of which was inflicted by the United States. So, the Brits quickly backed down and accepted the ceasefire terms dictated by the UN.

What started as an almost patriotic mission to reclaim British patrimony ended in a humiliating withdrawal … and one that left no doubt in anyone’s mind that Britain was no longer a major superpower.

Continued Below...

Trump Unleashes Alarming
Divide on Wall Street

The new rules are transforming the market. 1,878 high-risk stocks that could crumble (and 7 that could soar 1,000% in the next five years). Is your portfolio on the right side of this historic divide? Find out before August 22nd. See Details.

Financial markets do crash from time to time, often in reaction to government policy or some exogenous event. But it’s extremely unusual to have the trifecta, i.e. a major decline in the stock, bond, AND currency markets, simultaneously.

For example, if a government announces a major tax increase, then most likely the stock market will suffer a sudden decline. Higher taxes are bad for business, and valuations will take a hit.

But higher taxes would make bonds a more attractive investment (since the additional tax revenue makes the government more creditworthy).

So, stocks would fall, yet bonds would benefit.

As another example, slashing interest rates would typically be perceived as good for business… so stocks would rise. But the reduced rates (which may invite higher inflation) could be perceived as bad for the currency… so the dollar might drop as a result.

There are always trade-offs, and capital tends to move in/out of various asset classes.

But again, it’s extremely unusual for all of these assets to decline, so dramatically, at the same time. And it’s usually a pretty clear sign that capital is fleeing your country, i.e. foreign investors are pulling a lot of money out, quickly.

Usually if this freak occurrence does take place, it happens to some little banana republic. Zimbabwe and Venezuela come to mind.

But for a wealthy, developed country to suffer such financial humiliation is extremely rare … and signals that something has gone terribly wrong.

Again, this happened to Britain during the Suez Crisis. It also happened to Japan after their big crash in the 1980s.

Even the US was humbled in 1971 when the dollar was taken off the gold standard; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7% that August, the bond market fell (i.e. bond yields rose by more than 100 basis points), and the dollar lost 15% against other major currencies.

The US was able to recover back in the 70s, however, because it managed to maintain its position as the global reserve currency — and even still, it took a decade of stagflation before they managed to right the ship.

This month we witnessed the same pattern. After the Liberation Day nonsense, the US stock, bond, and currency markets all crashed (and gold surged to $3500 as a result). Substantial foreign pressure mounted.

And, at least for the moment, it appears that the US government is capitulating; just like Britain in 1956, the US government lacks the financial sturdiness to withstand the pressure.

Also, just like Britain in 1956, this may be the moment that future historians mark as the end to US global primacy.

It seems naive to think that the rest of the world will simply move on and forget about Liberation Day. Most likely this fiasco will accelerate the US dollar being displaced as the world’s dominant reserve currency.

No one knows yet what that new system will look like. And it’s because of the “I don’t knows” that gold surged to a peak of $3500.

Central banks have been the key driver of that trend, because, while they don’t know what the next reserve currency will be, they do know that they’ll be able to trade for it with gold.

I still believe this long-term trend will hold, i.e. central banks will continue to trade their US dollar reserves for gold.

But at the moment, gold is looking a bit overbought; its surge in price has been nearly a one-way street, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a short-term correction.

On that note, it’s very difficult to find anyone today who is bearish on gold … and when everyone has jumped on the same bandwagon, I start getting a bit nervous.

Fortunately, there are still a number of absurdly cheap gold companies, like mining, service, and streaming businesses, that are trading at ridiculously low multiples.

Regards,

James Hickman
Schiff-Sovereign and Grey Swan

P.S. from Addison: If you’re a paid up member of Grey Swan you can review the gold mining and royalties companies with contributor Shad Marquitz in last week’s recording of Grey Swan Live! posted right here.

Tomorrow’s Grey Swan Live! will feature a sharp review of digital currencies in the global monetary order with Bitcoin Capitalist Mark Jeftovic. Stay tuned.

If you’re not currently a member, I urge you to join as soon as possible to get the most out of your Grey Swan Investment Fraternity – including special investment analyses, monthly investment bulletins and Grey Swan Live! – weekly online meet-ups.

All for one membership fee. You can join the fraternity by clicking right here.

Please add your own perspective to the mix here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.

(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)

Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com

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While Mag 7 Dives 10%, I’m +4% YTD…Want to Know Why?

Hey—Don here.

Mag 7 stocks are tanking –10% this year.
Blake is sitting on +4%.

No magic. No voodoo. Just the same signals Big Money uses to bail before the bloodbath.

Tomorrow at 2 PM ET, Blake and I are pulling back the curtain in The Green Guy briefing:

Why your “buy & hope” advisor is still bleeding you dry
The simple setup that kept me green while everyone else panicked
Exact rotation rules for stocks, bonds, commodities & the USD
Live Q&A—bring your questions, get straight answers

👉 Lock in your spot (and calendar reminder)

If you’re fed up with “it always comes back” platitudes, tune in.
If you want a real, repeatable edge—join us.

👉 Click here to add The Green Guy to your calendar

See you tomorrow at 2 PM ET—come ready to be the Green Guy in a sea of red.

— Don Kaufman

P.S. This isn’t a pump-and-dump pitch. You’ll walk away with the same signals that have let me dodge the carnage all year. Don’t miss it.

Helping You Become a Better Trader...it’s What We Do. Experience TheoTrade® Today!

Whether you are a beginning, intermediate, or active trader, you will find a treasure chest of valuable trading education resources, both free and paid, that will help take your trading to the next level. We are committed to helping you become the best trader you can be.

TheoTrade

PO Box 24790 Christiansted, Virgin Islands 00824
1 (800) 256-8876

support@theotrade.com

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Rabu, 30 April 2025

Helping You Become a Better Trader - It’s What We Do. Experience TheoTrade® Today!

Whether you are a beginning, intermediate, or active trader, you will find a treasure chest of valuable trading education resources, both free and paid, that will help take your trading to the next level. We are committed to helping you become the best trader you can be.

Tomorrow at 2 PM EST: Discover the Secret to Staying Green in a Sea of Red!

RSVP Now to Join Don Kaufman and Learn How One Man Is Quietly Up This Year While The Market Unravels!

America's "Suez Moment" Has Arrived

Helping You Become a Better Trader...it’s What We Do. Experience TheoTrade® Today!

Whether you are a beginning, intermediate, or active trader, you will find a treasure chest of valuable trading education resources, both free and paid, that will help take your trading to the next level. We are committed to helping you become the best trader you can be.

America's "Suez Moment"
Has Arrived