September 23, 2024
An Election Bet Worth $1 Billion Is Just the Start for Polymarket
Dear Subscriber,
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| By Marija Matic |
The countdown to the U.S. presidential election this November is underway, and things are getting intense.
Polymarket's largest election betting pool has surged to nearly $1 billion, though it currently stands at a still impressive $985 million.
You’ll recall that Polymarket is the crypto-based platform where you can bet on anything from politics to pop culture.
Initially, the odds heavily favored former President Donald Trump, especially when President Joe Biden was still in the race.
However, the landscape shifted dramatically with Vice President Kamala Harris entering the fray. Following the pivotal debate that took place two weeks ago, Harris not only narrowed the gap but has now taken a slight lead over Trump, as you can see below:
The resolution of these bets is straightforward: If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, the market resolves to "Yes." If she loses, it resolves to "No."
The market’s credibility hinges on a trio of major news sources — Associated Press, Fox News and NBC — which must all declare the same winner for the bets to pay out.
If the election remains unresolved by the inauguration date of Jan. 20, 2025, the market will base its resolution on who is actually inaugurated.
Now, Polymarket isn’t an omniscient source of information. People are betting on what they believe or even want to happen.
As such, this should be seen as a measure of sentiment, rather than a tool for predicting what will come.
And it also shows us something else: Volatility is still likely to plague the crypto markets.
With the political landscape in flux, the candidates' odds are shifting daily, often changing by as much as 1% up or down.
This highlights the unpredictable nature of electoral politics, where public perception and betting trends can swing dramatically in just a matter of hours.
With only 43 days to go, the stakes have never been higher.
And in this cycle — where headlines can shake the market — means we’re in for a bumpy ride.
But there’s another story here. Behind the sentiment we can read from Polymarket’s polls, I want to focus on how this platform has emerged as a top gambling platform.
And the key lies in its use of blockchain technology.
Blockchain: The Backbone of Betting
Polymarket's advantage and attractiveness lies in its blockchain-based infrastructure.
Built on the Polygon (MATIC, “D”) network and utilizing smart contracts, the platform operates without a central authority. This ensures transparency and trust.
Its decentralized oracle records all event-based contracts on-chain. These contracts are digital agreements that are contingent upon the outcome of a specific real-life event, such as the result of an election or the winner of a sporting event. Meanwhile, the platform's community-driven dispute resolution mechanism guarantees fairness and eliminates bias.
This innovative model enables frictionless and cost-effective participation for individuals worldwide, with 24/7 accessibility. Anyone can create a bet on this platform.
It’s no wonder it was previously dubbed "Crypto's Election-Year Breakout App" by Grayscale.
Source: Grayscale.
Click here to see full-sized image.
While Polymarket currently reigns as the world's largest prediction market, its post-election volumes remain uncertain.
However, given its expanding range of betting topics and the potential for cyclical surges tied to significant global events, Polymarket appears well positioned to maintain its dominance.
While the elections are dominating volumes, Polymarket's user base demonstrates a growing range of interests as non-political bets have attracted substantial wagering.
This includes a hefty $57 million wager on Super Bowl 2025, an $11 million bet on Fed interest rate cuts and $13 million on the highest-grossing movie of 2024.
There’s even a surprising $1.8 million bet on hurricane season forecasts, and nearly $1 million on geopolitical tensions between Lebanon and Israel.
Additionally, smaller-scale bets around pop culture have begun to pop up, including ones focused on legal issues for rapper Sean “Diddy” Combs and the anticipated launch date of the next Grand Theft Auto video game.
All categories of bets benefit from Polymarket’s blockchain-based infrastructure. It is supported by transparency, security and decentralization, which foster trust and ensure verifiable outcomes.
This technology creates a dynamic ecosystem, often incorporating utility tokens to incentivize participation and enhance user engagement.
Even though Polymarket doesn’t have a token of its own at this time, investors will do well to keep an eye on this platform.
Whether you're a political enthusiast, a sports fan, or simply intrigued by blockchain's potential, prediction platforms are worth watching as they redefine traditional models.
Best,
Marija MatiΔ
P.S. While you can’t invest in Polymarket, there is another exciting opportunity you should be aware of.
It isn’t on the blockchain, though. Heck, it’s barely on Earth!
Rather, it’s the lucrative and fast-growing business of space and satellite technology. And just for this week, Weiss Members like you have a rare second chance to claim early pre-IPO shares in this mega-disruptor BEFORE nearly allangel investors, venture capitalists or big banks.
Our founder, Dr. Martin Weiss, just recorded a brief update on this opportunity. I suggest you watch it here while you can.
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