| Katusa's Investment Insights | | Why the World's Most Crucial Metal Is Poised for a Major Rally By Marin Katusa | | Demand for this “red gold” is set to skyrocket.
But here’s the twist—supply can’t keep up.
Copper isn’t just another commodity; it’s the backbone of the green energy transition.
Every electric vehicle, solar panel, and wind turbine demands more of this versatile metal. Ditto the electric grid.
Yet, while demand soars, supply chains are struggling to keep up, ongoing labor strikes and mine nationalizations further hurt long-term supply visibility.
The latest data reveals a tightening market that could lead to a significant price surge.
Investors, take note: the train could leave the station with copper stocks, any day now.
Copper’s Unstoppable Demand: The Engine of the Green Economy
Copper has become indispensable. From electric vehicles to renewable energy systems, its role in the global economy is critical.
The ongoing electrification of the world depends heavily on copper, and this dependence is only set to grow. However, while demand climbs, supply remains constrained.
The mismatch between supply and demand is setting the stage for a perfect storm in the copper market.
Let’s get into some of the latest data that reveals some eye-opening trends that suggest a bullish future for copper.
First Sign: Days of Forward Consumption Plummeting
One of the most striking indicators of copper’s looming supply crunch is the rapid decline in days of forward consumption.
In 2019, global inventories covered 20 days of forward consumption. - Fast forward to 2025, and that number shrinks to just 4 days and by 2026 it could be down to just a single day.
This drastic reduction highlights how fragile the supply chain has become.
With inventories falling, prices are bound to rise as industries scramble to secure their copper needs. | | This chart illustrates the dramatic drop in days of forward consumption, underscoring the tightening market conditions.
As the world demands more copper, the available supply diminishes.
The result? A market ripe for significant price increases. | | Second Sign: Long-Term Global Market Balance Slipping into Deficit
The global market balance for copper is another key indicator signaling a bullish future. In recent years, copper has swung from deficits to small surpluses.
This deficit isn’t just a number; it’s a warning sign for industries relying on copper.
The deficit reflects the gap between supply and demand that will drive prices upward.
When demand outpaces supply, prices have only one way to go—up. | | This chart illustrates the ongoing battle between production and consumption, making it clear why copper is poised for a price surge.
With a growing deficit in the coming years, the squeeze on supply will become more pronounced, pushing prices higher.
Third Sign: Global Mine Production Growth
Global mine production growth is struggling to keep pace with demand. Over the past few years, growth rates have averaged a paltry 2.5%.
These figures reflect the challenges faced by miners, from geopolitical risks to operational constraints. Not to mention, that on average, a copper mine will take 16 years to go from exploration to production.
This means that as current and new production growth slows, the pressure will build. | | As production struggles to keep up, the market balance tips further into deficit, setting the stage for a bullish run on copper prices.
One thing…
That assumes that everything between now and 2028 comes online on time and on budget, which is a rarity.
Even with a projected 7% growth by 2028, the metal could still be in deficit.
Copper’s Future Is Here
With no major copper discoveries over the past few years, access to long-term safe and stable supply is in serious doubt. - From 2015 to 2023, only 18 million tonnes of copper were discovered, compared to 28 million tonnes in 2014 alone.
The data paints a clear picture: copper could be on the verge of a major price rally.
With declining days of forward consumption, a looming market deficit, and the potential for sluggish mine production growth, the fundamentals are in place for a bullish future.
For investors, this isn’t just an opportunity—it’s a call to action.
As industries transition to greener technologies, copper will be the lifeblood. And those who invest wisely will be well-positioned to capitalize on this copper revolution.
The copper market is tightening, and the window of opportunity is here.
Regards,
Marin Katusa
P.S. In next week’s publication of my premium research – Katusa’s Resource Opportunities - I identify several gold and copper buyout targets.
…And one company in the copper markets that could move 300-500% in the next 12 months. | | | |
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