Smart Money: “Everyone Knows” AGI Is Coming... but How to Prepare?

These are the "haves" and "have-nots" of AI…

August 1, 2024 Eric Fry Editor, Smart Money Daily Issue “Everyone Knows” AGI Is Coming... but How to Prepare?  Hello, Reader. Tom Yeung here with today’s Smart Money. I help Eric out here and there in some of his other services. And if there’s one thing Eric often tells me and the rest of the team, it’s this... “Everyone knows” are often the scariest words you’ll hear as an investor. Consider...  “Everyone knows dot-com stocks are the next big thing... let’s keep buying them up...” “Everyone knows Japan has low interest rates... let’s short Japanese bonds and wait for yields to rise...” “Everyone knows AI will keep growing forever... let’s buy up the top AI stocks, no matter the price...” That’s because “everyone knows” means people are starting to bet in only one direction. By the time everybody believes the same thing, there’s no one left on the other side of a trade.  We all know what happens next. When markets have only buyers and no sellers (or vice versa), asset prices can go haywire... and then people lose their shirts. (There’s a reason why that popular Japanese trade I mentioned above was called the “Widowmaker.”)  The danger of "everyone knows” is why Eric recently recommended readers of his Fry’s Investment Report (subscription required) take 100% gains on their shares of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). He wrote... I expect [Alphabet] to continue flourishing in the months and years ahead. [Its] stock valuations amply reflect that optimistic outlook.  In fact, Eric hit that “Sell” recommendation at the very top of the market. Since that call on July 8, Alphabet’s shares have lost 9% of their value as investors (i.e., “everyone”) begin to question the mounting costs of AI implementation (i.e., started realizing they no longer “know”).  Other AI stocks have also begun to wobble. Shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) sank as much as 7% after announcing second-quarter earnings that showed intensifying spending on AI efforts. And popular AI trades like SoundHound AI (SOUN) and BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) are down 50% or more from their 2024 peaks. Everyone correctly knows that AI is here to stay and that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is coming. But few know the best way to survive... and even thrive... from this increasingly intelligent technology.   SPONSORED AI Warning: You have 60 days to Move Your Money According to expert investors Eric Fry, Luke Lango, and Louis Navellier you could have little time to move your money before a major AI event rocks the stock market. Hundreds of stocks could collapse 50% or more in the coming weeks, but a handful could soar 10X as this story plays out. Learn more.   What Do We Truly Know?  In their latest presentation, Eric’s InvestorPlace colleagues Louis Navellier and Luke Lango joined him to talk about what everyone should actually know about the rise of AI. Click here to view now. On the positive side, they see some incredible opportunities in AI-affected sectors like biotech and healthcare. As Luke points out, AI could eventually give us the ability to cure to any disease...  Thanks to AI, I really do believe we sit on the cusp of a disease-free world. I firmly believe that.  AI will also make many of our jobs easier... reduce repetitive tasks elsewhere in our lives... and create an entire cohort of “haves” that invested in the technology early. We see some echos of this optimism in today’s “everyone knows” style of AI investing.  But there’s also a darker side that many investors have willfully ignored. That’s because AI will also create an entire group of “have-nots.”   Many manufacturing jobs will be replaced by robots. We’re already seeing this with warehouse and industrial automation. Wide swaths of white-collar workers will find their jobs duller... if they even keep those jobs. Companies like Intuit Inc. (INTU) are quickly working to replace human accountants with machines, and law firms are turning to AI for researching old cases and writing briefs. Even retirees and their savings aren’t safe. As Luke continues, the accelerating pace of technological change has reduced the lifespan of most companies. He points out that 50% of the companies now in the S&P 500 will die in the next 10 years and be replaced. As he puts it in the presentation... Every act of creation begins with an act of destruction.  In order to make way for these new world-changing AI businesses, old businesses and antiquated industries will get destroyed.   And the unfortunate reality is that this destruction will likely touch all of us.  Now, I apologize if this sound alarmist. Many of these changes won’t happen overnight. After all, “everyone knows” that tomorrow usually looks pretty similar to today. The biggest companies today will still be the most dominant ones next month... even next year. (For that matter, most GDP growth estimates are built by taking last year’s figures and projecting them into the future.) But those who follow my updates in Fry’s Investment Report – and those who follow Eric’s trades there and at his premium service The Speculator – know that we do believe that change is happening at an accelerating pace. And if innovation continues on its current path, we’re quickly entering a phase of AI development where no one knows what will happen next. That’s why I want to be sure you watch Eric, Louis, and Luke’s latest presentation, where they outline where they see markets going over the next decade. I can’t promise that video will be up much longer... so I hope you’ll take a look now. And keep an eye out here for a special presentation Eric is putting together. In it, he’ll explain why we should expect the confusion we’re now seeing around the road to AGI... and the “sequence” of moves smart investors will want to make soon, now that we find ourselves at this temporary plateau. That’s coming later this month. I’ll have even more info on it soon.  Regards, Thomas Yeung, CFA    Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace.com

Manage your account We hope this timely investment research is valuable to you. As you know the markets move fast and conditions change frequently. So please check the current issue for the most recent advice. Please note that we cannot be liable for any missed bulletins caused by overzealous filters. To ensure that you continue to receive this valuable part of your service please take a moment to add (EricFry@exct.InvestorPlace.com) to your address book. You can reach us at feedback@investorplace.com or by calling 1-800-219-8592. Have a question about your bill? Visit our billing FAQs. Too many emails? Click or tap Manage my subscription to unsubscribe from free newsletter emails or Unsubscribe from marketing to stop receiving marketing emails.   InvestorPlace Media LLC 1125 N. Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 Copyright 2024 All rights reserved.