Elon Saves The Day |
|
If you didn't watch today's tape and just saw that the Nasdaq was up nearly 200 points…you might have thought that Nvidia led the rally. |
After all, it carried the market the entire first half of this year… |
But Nvidia was weak all day, closing the session down 1.3%. |
And if it wasn't for an exceptional day out of Tesla, which gained more than 10% following its Q2 delivery numbers this market would be on some shaky legs. |
In fact, despite the advance/decline showing 338 stocks up vs. 161 down, the S&P 500 was barely up on the day, gaining a measly 0.5%. |
|
You'd think with the VIX hitting yearly lows, we'd see more participation besides tech, although the banks have been strong lately. |
But what about other sectors? |
Retail stocks like Nike, Dicks Sporting Goods, Ralph Lauren, and Sketchers have gotten destroyed lately. |
Alt-energy names like First Solar have also fallen off a cliff. |
Not to mention Starbucks and Dominos Pizza…which have looked ugly lately. |
And don't get me started about the home builders…which have also shown relative weakness lately. |
Even Jerome Powell's comments this morning had little impact on the markets. |
No, not the one where he said the Fed isn't using generative AI…but the one where he said the U.S. deficit is unsustainable, and it's better dealt with sooner rather than later. |
Onward and upward… |
|
The SPX is reaching its upper edge of its expected move, which is around 5519-ish. |
|
If you're not schooled up on what expected moves are, you can watch this free video. |
That said, if I was a betting man, which I 100% am, I would think we see some mean-reversion from the top of the upper edge. |
It's worth keeping in mind that Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon make up about 25% of the S&P 500 in terms of weighting. |
Besides Nvidia, the others are holding up nicely. In fact, Amazon closed at $200, making fresh yearly highs. |
More importantly, the longer we go without a sharp sell-off, the more dangerous the inevitable sell-off will be. |
|
Tesla…Tesla…Tesla. |
Were there any stocks besides it trading today? |
Of course there were…but this is the one that mattered today. |
I was able to secure a 37% profit in my Tesla Catapult Alerts Portfolio today. |
|
There were more than 4.2 million Tesla contracts traded today…the flow wasn't very definitive on the call-side, but 40% of the puts traded were sold at the bid or below. |
In other words, instead of buying calls, it appears traders preferred to sell puts in Tesla, which is another way to put on a bullish bet. |
What else am I watching? |
Of course, I'm still watching Nvidia, I believe if it does crack it will send the Nasdaq tumbling. |
Thus far, it has been consolidating after hitting highs in mid June. |
I'm also watching the bonds closely… |
The other day I mentioned how wonky they've been acting. |
In fact, for the last two sessions, we've seen more trading volume pre-market in bond futures than we have in the S&P 500. |
There are a lot of talking heads with opinions about inflation…but if you really want to know what's happening then you've got to watch the bond market. |
Declining bond prices means inflation is a concern. |
We didn't see that in today's session, but it also wasn't very convincing. |
Tomorrow is a short session, but I'll be here to update you on my latest positions and market insights. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. What if you could use the power of AI to elevate your trading game? Thanks to something called the "Genesis Cog" it's now possible. Click here to discover more. |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar