sport football: What the Presidential Election Means for Bitcoin in 2024 and Beyond

July 31, 2024 | Read Online

What the Presidential Election Means for Bitcoin in 2024 and Beyond

Generally, I don't talk politics in my newsletter…

I'm too busy looking for ideas to make my subscribers money. And I choose to focus on what unites my subscribers: Our goal of growing wealthier safely.

But we can't ignore the fact that we'll have a new president in the White House come January 20, 2025.

And in the pursuit of money-making opportunities, investors need to know what the government is up to.

The policies of the next presidential administration will have huge ramifications on the price trajectory of bitcoin and the overall crypto market.

The good news for us is this…

No matter who wins the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and President Donald Trump, I believe the future is bright when it comes to bitcoin.

Now, don't get me wrong.

In my view, bitcoin will perform much better under one of the presidential candidates than the other. But that's the beauty of this asset class. Bitcoin is politically agnostic. So it'll survive and thrive no matter who resides in the White House.

"Pro-Bitcoin" and "Pro-innovation"

Regardless of what you think of him, a Trump administration would be incredibly bullish for bitcoin.

That was confirmed last week when President Trump spoke at the annual Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.

My chief analyst, Houston Molnar, attended the event and will have more boots-on-the-ground insights for you over the coming days in Digital Asset Daily.

While Houston attended President Trump's speech in person, I watched the livestream from home. And what I can tell you is that the President's evolution on the topic of bitcoin and crypto has been nothing short of amazing.

During his first term, the President was a harsh bitcoin skeptic, saying it was "based on thin air." He also said he was "not a fan" of cryptocurrencies. As of late 2019, he called bitcoin a "scam" against the U.S. dollar.

Boy, what a difference a few years make.

Last month, President Trump wrote on his Truth Social media platform that he wants "all remaining bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA."

Friends, this is one of the most stunning turnarounds I've ever seen a person make about an asset class in my life.

And at the Nashville conference, things got even better…

During his speech, the President backed many pro-bitcoin policies like creating a national bitcoin "stockpile" that he said would serve as a "permanent national asset." (He stopped short of offering many details, however.)

He also told the crowd he'd keep 100% of bitcoin that the U.S. government currently holds or acquires.

Right now, the U.S. government holds an estimated 210,000 bitcoin. At current prices, that's about $14 billion worth of bitcoin.

The idea of governments adopting bitcoin as a reserve asset is something I've been writing about – and getting ridiculed about – for years.

As far back as 2018, I predicted bitcoin would become a base layer of the world's financial system – similar to the way central banks use the U.S. dollar and gold as reserves.

In my view, bitcoin is essentially a central bank in cyberspace. That's why I believe many countries will turn to it as an alternative reserve asset.

You need to understand how novel and radical my stance was back in the late-2010s.

During President Trump's first term (2016-2020), mainstream financial pundits openly advocated banning crypto. They considered it the currency of terrorists, criminals and traffickers.

People accused me of peddling "magic internet money." My publisher thought I was insane. To say they were uncomfortable with the idea is an understatement.

They hated it. The only reason they let me publish my research is because I threatened to quit if they didn't.

Fast-forward to today, and the leading candidate for president of the United States is getting on board with my "insane" idea of using bitcoin as a national reserve asset.

Again, I can't tell you how stunning this transformation is. And it completely vindicates my years-long research in this asset class.

President Trump publicly stated that he wants billions of people to come into bitcoin. He's talking about massive global adoption of this asset class.

"Most people have no idea what the hell it is," Trump said at the conference. "So what happens when everyone figures it out? That'll be something."

I've been preaching this message for years. The fact that the President is now on board with bitcoin just shows how far we've come.

Now, I get it… Politicians say a lot of stuff to get elected. And then they renege on their pledges.

How many of these pro-bitcoin policies will President Trump enact if he's re-elected? I don't know.

My job here isn't to render political analysis. My job is to render an analysis on what impact the election will have on bitcoin.

The bottom line is this: If President Trump gets re-elected, it's wildly bullish for crypto.

But what if Kamala Harris sits in the Oval Office next year instead? Even under that scenario, I still believe bitcoin will go higher.

Democrats Changing Their Anti-Crypto Stance

It's no secret. The Democratic Party under President Joe Biden has been no friend of crypto.

Last year, the Biden administration launched a number of regulatory investigations into some of the biggest players in the crypto ecosystem.

For instance, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued major exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken. And in Congress, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and her "anti-crypto army" worked on legislation to kill the industry.

The Biden administration basically opted for a regulation by enforcement approach to crypto. Despite these regulatory headwinds, we've continued to see crypto prices soar.

On the other hand, Harris' team is reportedly trying to foster a more constructive dialogue and regulatory framework that will enable the growth of the crypto industry.

Compared to the Biden administration, I believe a Harris administration would be more open to crypto.

Here's why…

Before serving as second-in-command to President Biden, Harris was the junior U.S. senator from California. She started her political career in the Bay Area and regularly advocated for Silicon Valley interests.

During her 2019 Democratic primary, Harris raised over $500,000 from donors working at Amazon, Alphabet, AT&T, Comcast, Microsoft and Apple, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

She's also maintained a close allegiance with tech industry leaders. A good example of that is her communications with billionaire tech investor and bitcoin hawk Mark Cuban.

In a recent interview with crypto publication Decrypt, the Shark Tank star said Harris' team recently contacted him with questions about crypto.

Cuban added that "it's a good sign" for the future of crypto that Harris is asking questions now.

"The feedback I'm getting, but certainly not confirmed by the VP, is that she will be far more open to business, [artificial intelligence], crypto and government as a service," he told Decrypt.

Here's my take: I don't believe a Harris administration would try to kill bitcoin – or crypto in general. But it would want to shift control of crypto from the domain of newcomers in the fintech industry to the established players on Wall Street.

We are already beginning to see that play out…

Over the past year, we've seen the SEC approve exchange-traded funds for bitcoin and Ethereum. That's opened the door for powerhouses like BlackRock and Fidelity to get a foothold in this business. I expect that "professionalization" trend in crypto to continue.

In my opinion, a Harris administration would become less obstructionist when it comes to crypto – and that's very bullish for crypto prices.

Bitcoin Will Thrive No Matter Who Wins

I don't have a crystal ball. So I don't know who will win this election.

However, from a sentiment standpoint, I can tell you right now President Trump would be a more bullish catalyst for bitcoin than Vice President Harris.

When the polls have President Trump ahead, you'll see bitcoin rally hard. When the polls have him behind, you'll see bitcoin sell-off a bit.

The question is: How do we take advantage of this information?

That's the key thing that I want to conclude with. Not political ideology.

What I can unequivocally tell you is this: Over the long term, it doesn't matter who wins this election. Bitcoin, and crypto assets in general, will go significantly higher because the adoption of these assets is going higher.

The adoption genie is out of the bottle and there is no putting it back in.

Now, there will still be a ton of volatility this year… Especially because the election is such a toss-up.

But if President Trump wins, I believe that the magnitude of the bull market will be much greater and possibly longer.

Think about… If 1% of all bitcoin just gets removed from the marketplace because the U.S. government won't sell any more of its reserve, what does that do to supply?

What if all of a sudden there's a clear regulatory framework for bitcoin development and continued financialization of crypto assets in the United States?

Friends, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that these changes will drive massive adoption and enormous investment flows into this asset class.

Either way, I think both are bullish for bitcoin. No matter who wins.

Let the Game Come to You!

Big T