April 10, 2024
Only 10 More Days Until Bitcoin's Halving …
Dear Subscriber,
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| By Beth Canova |
Bitcoin (BTC, “A”) has staged a remarkable comeback in recent days, climbing from around $61,000 to $71,000 after last week's dip before settling just under $70,000 — right around its previous all-time high.
This uptrend and rejection at the overhead resistance sparks two key questions:
- Will this breakout lead to new all-time highs?
- Or are we entering a volatile period that could push BTC down further?
While the latter can happen, there are two big factors working against it.
First is bullish momentum.
Bitcoin is holding above a key support level of $68,400 (marked by the solid blue line below). This suggests the bulls aren't backing down easily:
The price remains in a consolidation phase, being locally bullish.
Second is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which could trigger additional strong positive sentiment and propel BTC to new highs.
After all, the current action shows BTC came within reach of the recent record price — marked by the dashed blue line below — after breaking through the important $69,000 level for a second time:
In case bulls are strong, we can expect to get much closer to the $80,000 area soon.
But if the bulls can’t hold support at $68,400, then we may see downside volatility and continued consolidation for the next one or two weeks.
Now here’s the fun part that people outside the crypto sphere may not realize: A larger price drop wouldn't be surprising. Nor would it derail the bullish sentiment.
Historically, Bitcoin has seen steep corrections before halving. Even a dip to $50,700 wouldn't necessarily derail the long-term bullish trend, let alone the current 6% dip off BTC’s latest all-time high we’re seeing now.
In other words, the ongoing correction appears very shallow, considering the halving is just 10 days away.
So don’t let FUD — that’s fear, uncertainty and doubt in crypto speak — fuel any investment decisions right now. There are more bullish forces at work than you may see on the surface.
Speaking of Bitcoin’s halving, don’t expect BTC to take off the moment it happens.
Historically, pullbacks ahead of a halving are often followed by weeks of consolidation. Only after — typically within a few months — do we see the parabolic growth that catches the attention of talking heads outside the crypto sphere.
While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the current trend seems to be following the script.
So, to recap the good news: This pullback is not just expected, it's potentially healthy for the market.
Corrections weed out short-term speculators and cool down overheated markets.
And you still have some time to prepare for the next leg up of this bull market. But not much.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH, “B+”) has seen positive action this week as it tries to turn the $3,600 resistance level into support:
Its dominance is still lagging behind Bitcoin, which is evident when price increases in ETH and BTC are compared.
But it's worth reminding that the ETH/BTC price is expected to break out from its 7-year-old triangle pattern sometime this year.
This breakout has the potential to trigger a substantial surge in ETH and altcoin prices.
And if we see an approval for a long-awaited Ethereum spot ETF this summer, the two forces could fuel this bullish scenario even further.
In fact, my colleague Juan Villaverde has been preparing for that for a while. He has a new strategy that helps him target select small-cap altcoins — what he’s calling his new crypto wonders — that have outsized growth potential.
He recently broke down this method to Weiss Ratings founder Dr. Martin Weiss just last week. You can watch their briefing here.
But if you’re interested, I urge you to watch it today. It’ll be taken offline very soon.
Best,
Beth Canova
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