On April 27, a massive rocket dubbed Long March 5 arrived at the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center on China's Hainan island.
It's the third-most-powerful orbital launch vehicle operating in the world today, behind the Falcon Heavy made by SpaceX and the Space Launch System used by NASA. And it's been increasingly busy these past few years as China has ramped up its space program.
The Long March 5 family has racked up a total of 10 successful launches since first taking flight in 2016. The 11th is expected to come this Friday, May 3.
The mission it's taking part in, Chang'e 6, is an ambitious one, too. It aims to land on the far side of the moon, collect up to 2,000 grams of lunar material, and then return to Earth.
No such mission has ever before been attempted. And that goes to show just how serious China is about pioneering lunar exploration.
Indeed, it has a robust and thorough plan for lunar exploration and development. It's essentially encapsulated in six phases.
Phase I is in the books. It included Chang'e 1 and 2 scanning and mapping the moon in unprecedented detail. Phase II involved Chang'e-3 and 4, which deployed rovers. And Phase III was China's first effort to collect lunar samples through Chang'e 5.
Chang'e 6 is part of Phase IV, which intends to establish a lunar robotic research station. That means further investigating the moon's topography, composition, and subsurface structure.
Chang'e 7 and 8 are expected to follow in 2026 and 2028, respectively. They'll continue to explore the moon's south pole for resources, potentially carrying other instruments like an orbiter, a lander, and a mini-flying probe.
Chang'e 8 will also carry a 3D-printing experiment to test-build a structure, as well as a small sealed ecosystem experiment. These missions will be further augmented by manned missions to the moon, which China aims to carry out by 2030.
This, China hopes, will pave the way for the construction of a lunar science base sometime after 2035. Like I said, it's an ambitious program — and one that's raised some eyebrows in the U.S. government.
"I think it's not beyond the pale that China would suddenly say, 'We are here. You stay out,'" NASA administrator Bill Nelson recently told Yahoo News. "That would be very unfortunate — to take what has gone on on planet Earth for years, grabbing territory, and saying it's mine and people fighting over it."
Nelson's concerns have a strong historical basis here on Earth, where China has been aggressively pushing new territorial claims, effectively attempting to redraw the world map.
It's claimed the entirety of the South China Sea, overriding the U.N.-sanctioned boundaries of its neighbors like Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
Basically, every county with a coastline is entitled to an economic zone that stretches 200 nautical miles from its shoreline. But China is encroaching on those areas of its neighbors territory, building artificial islands and attacking and ramming rival vessels.
Chinese forces routinely harass American ships and planes passing through the area as well. That's led to several tense situations and near-collisions.
This effort to skirt, ignore, and ultimately rewrite established international law is further underscored by China's support of Russia.
Remember, China isn't just supporting Russia to needle the West. It's supporting Russia, because it also wants to seize territory from its neighbors — and ultimately re-absorb Taiwan.
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China is also at odds with India with respect to their shared border. That conflict led to a clash between both nations' forces in 2022.
So the idea that China will establish a physical presence on the moon and then use it as leverage for a land claim is hardly crazy. It's a very real possibility.
And that possibility is further supported by China's refusal to sign on to the Artemis Accords — a set of guidelines for the peaceful exploration of celestial bodies like the moon and Mars.
While 38 countries have voluntarily signed onto the accords, China has not. Why is that?
It's because not only could the moon hold potentially valuable resources — including precious metals or frozen water that could be distilled into jet fuel — but the moon itself could be a valuable strategic asset.
No doubt, China's space program isn't just about science. It's largely a military endeavor.
China has more than tripled its space-based intelligence ecosystem in the past five years. This year, alone, it aims to complete a record 100 orbital missions, a 40% increase from 2023. That would make it the world's second-most-active launcher behind SpaceX.
China is also developing an array of anti-satellite defense systems. It's been using its own defunct satellites as target practice for ground-based ballistics. It's made huge strides with hypersonic glide vehicles, which dip into orbit before firing back down on terrestrial targets. And it's believed to have deployed space-based lasers that have been caught targeting Hawaii.
With that, the United States and others are scrambling to respond.
The U.S. itself has ramped up its satellite launches by more than 10-fold over the past decade. It's resuscitated its own moon programs like Artemis after years of neglect. And it's helping Japan in a bid to put its own astronaut on the moon ahead of China in 2028.
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