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| |  | | April 26, 2024 | | Daily Notes Dear Leah, Welcome to our end-of-the-week wrapup, where we break down the past week in "Daily Notes." What follows is a brief rundown of each day's notes, so you can quickly stay in the know. You can read each issue in full – including my “Idea of the Day,” Market Health Check, updates on our current model portfolio, and more – at your Innovation Investor subscriber site.
Monday, April 22 - Shortly after the Fourth Halving, Bitcoin looks ready to trigger a major, powerful technical buy signal.
- The big savior for stocks from the recent sell-off will be earnings. Earnings are expected to rise more than 8% this quarter, their best growth rate since 2021.
- Other investors agree that earnings will support stocks.
- We think that stocks can rally nicely over the next year even if the Fed doesn’t cut rates so long as the economy stays strong. History supports this outlook.
You can read these notes in full here. Tuesday, April 23 - With today’s positive price-action in the crypto markets, Bitcoin officially completed this bullish MACD crossover.
- Spotify, General Motors, General Electric, PepsiCo, UPS, and SAP all reported strong quarterly numbers last night or this morning. So long as the rest of the earnings season remains strong, stocks should continue to rebound.
- Technically speaking, this bounce in the S&P 500 looks strong. We’ve retaken the psychologically important 5,000 level and the technically important 5,030 level, while making a big push towards 5,100.
- The housing market refuses to crash. New home sales, after dropping slightly in February, rebounded significantly in March to their highest level since September 2023.
You can read these notes in full here. Wednesday, April 24 - We’re waiting for a bullish MACD crossover below the zero-line on the S&P 500, which looks like it could happen at any moment.
- This bullish MACD crossover signal below the zero-line has worked very well – though not perfectly – ever since this new bull market started back in late 2022.
You can read these notes in full here. Thursday, April 25 - Bitcoin dropped to the bottom-side of its recent consolidation channel. It has bounced strongly off that level. And, just yesterday, it executed a bullish MACD crossover. This technically looks like Bitcoin charging up to take the next leg higher in this rally.
- The U.S. economy is not “too hot”, which means the Fed can and should cut rates soon.
- The Q1 GDP Price Index rose 3.1% year-over-year in Q1, up from 1.6% growth in Q4. That reacceleration spooked investors. But, at 3.1%, GDP Price inflation is running at “normal” levels.
- While the Q1 GDP Report showed that inflation reaccelerated last quarter, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey for April showed that inflation likely resumed its decline shortly after Q1.
You can read these notes in full here. Friday, April 26 - The March PCE inflation rate clocked in at 2.7% this morning, roughly in-line with expectations but up from February’s PCE inflation rate of 2.5%.
- We think the big reason stocks surged today is because today’s March PCE report was the last of the reinflation reports.
- On the real-time inflation data front, the April Kansas City Fed Services Survey showed a big drop in price pressures.
- Everyone is calling for the 10-Year Treasury yield to rise to 5%. We don’t see it. First, yields never do what everyone thinks they are going to do – they love to run counter to consensus.
- With today’s rally, the S&P 500 is very close to triggering a bullish MACD crossover on a bounce out of oversold territory with its RSI.
You can read these notes in full here.
Go to Your Subscriber Site |  | | Luke Lango
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