Last call for Doc's newest message... Still waiting on 'peak inflation'... Congress funds chipmaking... The 'Pelosi trade' is closed – for a loss... These two assets can save you... A long mailbag...
 Before we get to anything else today...
I (Corey McLaughlin) want to make sure anyone who hasn't yet seen our colleague and Stansberry Research partner Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig's latest message has the chance to do so... You can watch it here, and I highly recommend it... In this brand-new and free presentation, Doc identifies what will be the biggest "shock" to retirement in more than 40 years... how it will have a far greater impact than a recession, inflation, or who controls Congress or the White House... and how to prepare for it... And as much as Doc's latest message is a warning, it's also an opportunity for those who act quickly. Those who do could have the chance to grow their wealth by 20% per year in an indispensable sector of the economy that famously beats inflation. Doc explains exactly what's happening in his latest presentation. He shares why this transformation will affect millions of Americans in the decade ahead... and describes how some investment gains in this sector could reach as much as 1,000%. As we've said, Doc has been working his whole life toward this moment. He calls this his "legacy work," where he's combining the time he spent on Wall Street... and then training to become a doctor... and then ultimately writing for us... in a way he has never done before. Click here to watch now. In the video, you'll also hear your final chance to become a charter member of Doc's newest research service, which includes a slew of bonuses and an offer that no one else will ever get again. Tonight is the "last call" for this opportunity. (And Stansberry Alliance members, we suggest you watch Doc's video, too, before we take it down... But also know you already have access to all of the research and opportunities he's talking about – at no extra cost – right here.) Moving on, here's another piece of inflation data... The news just keeps on coming... Rather quietly on Friday, we saw a few more pieces of economic data indicating that "peak inflation" has yet to arrive... The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") index recorded its highest annual gain in more than 40 years in June, rising 6.8% over last year... and 1% from May. So-called "core PCE," which doesn't include food and energy, also saw a big increase. It rose 4.8% from a year ago and was up 0.6% from a month earlier, the index's biggest monthly gain since April 2021. In other words, inflation accelerated in June. This particular report is important... You see, the consumer price index ("CPI") is the inflation number that gets most of the attention and headlines. It's the inflation gauge – and it sits around 9% as of July. The Federal Reserve focuses on PCE, and core PCE in particular. That's what it means when it talks about its long-term 2% inflation target and what it keeps in mind when making monetary policy decisions, which filter through to the economy and stock market. Of course, it doesn't make a lot of sense to use an inflation measure today that doesn't include food and energy prices. They're hugely significant at the moment. Nevertheless, that's what the Fed has been doing. What these numbers represent isn't as important to us as how they are used... We're not sure exactly how much weight the Fed string-pullers give to each inflation number. At a press conference last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has been considering "headline" CPI inflation more recently because... The public doesn't distinguish between core and headline inflation in their thinking. But it also sounded like when it comes down to making policy decisions, PCE numbers weighed heavier... Core inflation is a better predictor of inflation going forward. Sound flip-floppy to you? Yes... me, too. But the point is, if you're interested in tracking what the Fed will do, PCE numbers matter at least as much as the attention-grabbing, more relevant CPI, even though barely anyone talks about them. Here's what you really need to know from the latest PCE report... Since PCE numbers showed inflation continuing in June, the Fed will likely continue to hike interest rates moving forward to combat it. (Yes, I realize it's now August, but economic data can have a long processing lag.) As of today, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, pro traders in the fed-funds futures market have put a 75% probability on the Fed raising rates by 0.50% at its next meeting in September... At this time last week, before the Fed's latest policy announcement, the betting favorite was a 0.75% hike. Those odds dropped after Powell's commentary last Wednesday. We'll keep you posted on what the market says over the next several weeks. Finally, the chips industry has gotten its boost – officially... As you'll see, we've got an extra-long mailbag today – in addition to the usual great video interview from our Daniela Cambone, this one with "chart artist" Carter Braxton Worth – so we'll wrap things up earlier than normal with a quick update... On Wednesday, the CHIPS and Science Act passed through the Senate, with the House of Representatives granting its own approval the next day. The legislation includes $52 billion in subsidies for U.S. semiconductor manufacturers, $24 billion worth of tax credits for semiconductor manufacturing facilities, and more than $170 billion over five years for scientific research. A few takeaways come to mind, but we want to primarily hand out some kudos to our colleague and Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet... For more than a year, Dave has been talking about the budding geopolitical conflict in Taiwan, where most of the world's semiconductors are currently made. China wants to return this island nation to mainland control... much the same as Hong Kong. The concerns about a full-scale war breaking out in Taiwan – and the heavily concentrated global semiconductor supply from Asia, which came to light at the start of the pandemic – were the largest factor in the CHIPS and Science Act being passed... As our Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss shared in his market headlines roundup this morning, the legislation followed a closed-door national security briefing with the Senate in mid-July. According to Time magazine... Roughly 60 Senators split equally among party lines attended, along with [Commerce Secretary Gina] Raimondo, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks and National Intelligence Director Avril Haines. They met for nearly two hours. The group of Senators asked around 30 to 40 questions on the various national security implications of relying on chips made in China or Taiwan, according to a senior Commerce Department official, particularly for defense applications. Other questions focused on the timeline for building up U.S. semiconductor capacity, and whether Congress would be too late if they passed the legislation after the August recess. One of the main points that struck lawmakers, according to Raimondo, came from Hicks: 98% of the chips purchased by the Department of Defense are tested and packaged in Asia. "That briefing really moved members who were on the fence," Raimondo says... During the briefing, Haines walked the group through the various scenarios that could arise if the U.S. remained reliant on foreign chips, using geopolitical threats like Taiwan being at risk of annexation by China as an example of how losing access to chips could further harm global supply chain disruptions. These facts and whatever else was said in this meeting finally put the bill back on Congress' to-do list... after the discussion stalled for more than a year. It's all detail that Dave has been tracking closely... In all seriousness, he could have led the Senate meeting. Last August, Dave sent a recommendation in a new special report to Venture Technology subscribers for a relatively small business that was set to profit from what Dave described as a "silicon chipmaking renaissance in the U.S." As we wrote in the August 30, 2021 Digest... Over the next decade, Dave expects as much as $1 trillion to be invested in super high-end silicon chip manufacturing in the U.S. And as is Dave's calling card in Venture Technology, he has found a relatively tiny firm that's set to profit from this massive shift... It's a U.S. company that's new to this specific market, but one that has chipmaking experience going back decades... It's perfectly positioned to be a major player in the coming chip revival within this country. The stock has more than doubled over the past month alone, and Dave believes there is still much more upside ahead. Existing Venture Technology subscribers can get caught up with this research and the latest issue, published last week, right here. On a related note, the 'Pelosi trade' is closed – for a loss... Since we brought it up two weeks ago, let's button up this story... What we will forever remember as the "Pelosi trade" is now closed... The day before the House passed the CHIPS and Science Act, Paul Pelosi – the House speaker's husband – sold 25,000 shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA). As we suspected when we wrote about this two weeks ago – when we said Paul Pelosi had reported exercising Nvidia options he bought last year – this trade netted the Pelosis a loss... to the tune of $341,365. (As I wrote last month, they'd have been better off buying Nvidia shares back in 2016 when it was a much lesser-known company and selling them over the past few years – like Dave actually recommended in Venture Technology for a combined gain of around 600%.) History will not remember the outcome, though, but the spirit of the trade... Paul Pelosi selling a $4.1 million position in Nvidia doesn't exactly soothe any criticism and perceptions, accurate or misguided, about congresspeople and their families making trades for their benefit based on nonpublic information. This is also the first time we've personally seen the House speaker disclose a trade as soon as the day after it was made. Obviously, the message about the perception of "insider trading" got through. Still, the "Pelosi trade" is not the only eyebrow-raising example of congressional trading we've seen lately. Check out the website Capitol Trades for more. (Note we have no affiliation with the site.) We're not sure how this clearly concerning issue will get resolved... A pair of bipartisan bills have been put forward in the House and Senate, including the Trust in Congress Act. Introduced last January, this measure would require lawmakers and their families to put assets in blind trusts. But can we really expect Congress to police themselves? Our legislators are currently subject to the STOCK Act ("Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act") of 2012, which requires reporting of trading within 45 days of the transaction... And they regularly violate this law with no consequences. Send us your suggestions. | | | | These Two Assets Can Save You The two most essential things you need to own if everything comes crashing down are "a currency you can count on – and gold is the only one – and some form of fuel," Carter Braxton Worth, CEO and founder of Worth Charting, tells our editor-at-large Daniela Cambone. "There is a reason governments store them and nothing else." Click here to watch this video right now. And to catch all of the videos and podcasts from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to visit our Stansberry Investor platform anytime. | | | | |
| Recommended Links: | |
 Will This Be the Worst U.S. Crisis Ever? A wealthy 73-year-old U.S. entrepreneur retreats to one of his three European properties to issue a serious warning (and four recommendations) for Americans. "It falls on someone like me to warn you clearly. I'm too rich to care about money – and too old to care what anyone thinks." Click here for details... | | |
New 52-week highs (as of 7/29/22): Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Cheniere Energy (LNG), and Texas Pacific Land (TPL). We've got a long mailbag today, which is great. Keep your comments coming... We continue today with your feedback on last Thursday's Digest on the "Inflation Reduction Act" and the changing definition of a recession... and share thoughts on Dan's latest Friday essay that touched on similar themes (and the metric system)... What do you think? Have something to add? Disagree with anything? As always, send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "This morning I had a lizard (not a salamander) on my back deck, no top hat, but he had a termite in his mouth. Is that close enough to a recession?" – Paid-up subscriber Phil M. Corey McLaughlin comment: I'd say so! This might be as close as we get to seeing our new "salamander in a top hat" definition of a recession. It's confirmed. (And maybe more remarkable... good on that lizard for taking care of that termite.) "The government is spending more money in the inflation reduction act to reduce inflation at the same time it is raising taxes to stop a recession. Or is it spending more money to stop a recession at the same time it is raising taxes to reduce inflation? Either way it seems like a double negative long term for the economy." – Paid-up subscriber M.F. "Well written and spot on Corey... What I've seen over the past 18 months from Washington D.C., fiscally, makes the lemonade stand down my street, run by Kindergartners, look impressive." – Paid-up subscriber Jeff L. "Whenever more dollars are chasing less products, you have inflation – let people know about this very child-age information. Most Americans can understand that, hopefully. "What do you do then? Increase and develop American production and market it to all other countries around the world, period... Every other nation on Earth needs what we can produce if we use the brain as a leading guide. "We need the money from the wealthiest people to move production at full speed right now. We also need to let people with money know about the high incentives to put their money to work right now. "Forget increasing taxation!! Volume will take care of it. The government, at all levels, is NOT AN EMPLOYER!! Private industry is... We need to 'invent' new products in America. Just look around and see what needs to be replaced, or improved, and make it available to all countries in the world as we used to do (cars, refrigerators, radios, etc.) 100 years ago. "Concentrate on EDUCATION for all Americans, immediately. We need to create our foundations... You can talk about stocks, bonds, etc. all day long... you are only trying to catch the attention of those who play the market... not the average Joe. We have plenty of natural resources... let us use them!" – Paid-up subscriber Leonard Z. McLaughlin comment: Leonard, thanks for the note. The idea you began with reminded me of something our colleague Doc wrote way back in the January 2021 issue of his Income Intelligence newsletter – on the topic of what causes inflation... We've covered in prior issues how an expanding money supply doesn't automatically mean inflation. Money growth in excess of money demand does. Yes, the money supply has grown dramatically... But since the financial crisis, banks have held extra reserves, and corporations have beefed up their balance sheets. The money hadn't made it out "into the system" so to speak. So monetary policy alone didn't create inflation. But now the government has stepped in. We shared this quote in the Digest in February 2021, well before most people were talking about the possibility of high inflation and before the passage of the "American Rescue Plan," which poured fuel on the inflationary fire that was already building... To that point, I do want to address one of your final comments... I like to think about doing what we do every day – writing about stocks and bonds, as you put it – as (hopefully) educational itself... As with the rest of the research that our analysts and editors publish, average Joes and Janes are always at the top of our minds. We're talking about building lasting wealth and protecting your hard-earned savings, not just "playing the market." "I was mid-20's working for Weyerhaeuser, wife and two little girls my responsibility. Gas shortages, wage freezes, lots of businesses laid people off. My company always ran the sawmills because Frederick Weyerhaeuser bought millions of acres of timber in 1900 for 50 cents per acre. So, I had a job but no raises, prices rising, sometimes gas restricted. "But no businesses had signs out wanting to hire. That's what I keep seeing today, and that's never happened in my lifetime (75). Using Taco Bell as an example, they're always hiring and some days they have a full crew and you zip through the line. The other day they were short and moved each vehicle in about five minutes. Paying $16+ per hour. And then they don't show up. I went somewhere else. "Why are jobs so plentiful? This is end of July. Hard to believe the new crop of high school seniors aren't filling these jobs. And I read somewhere that 1.7 million people who retired during pandemic have returned to the workforce. I mean what is up?" – Paid-up subscriber Glenn M. "Maybe the labor market shows strength because those that were getting by on unemployment and stimulus no longer can due to inflation; and those workers getting SECOND jobs to fill the inflation gap." – Paid-up subscriber D.L. "George Orwell is alive and well. The 'Inflation Reduction Act' is today's War is Peace and Freedom is Slavery." – Paid-up subscriber Robert B. "I love your articles about recession history. I've lived through a few of them in my 79 years. Only in the past two years have I read your articles about it. I am reminded of Jesus when he was talking to Pilate, who was the ultimate spinster, and asked, 'What is truth?' He really didn't care but instead tried to be expedient." – Paid-up subscriber Polly R. "I am so used to Dan dialing his Friday Digest writings up to 11, that I almost expect a 12 now and then. This one on Recession dialed up to a 15. Clear, concise, and still chocked full of thoughtful/useful information. I don't know how you keep up this level of work, but appreciate that you do. At Stansberry, even the free stuff is invaluable. Alliance Member, having made the investment that pays off continually." – Stansberry Alliance member Robert H. "What an on the spot analysis. This is the pulse of what I see as a layman looking into this untrustworthy administration and central bank." – Paid-up subscriber T.C. "Hi Dan, You have my sincere gratitude and appreciation for your always thoughtful and well-informed writing. Please continue to relentlessly attack the widespread corruption in our financial and governmental systems. We, the citizens of this country, deserve much better than what we've received from the institutions that we've been saddled with. Thank you, Dan." – Paid-up subscriber R.M. "As usual, I loved Dan's insights. In particular today, regarding the 'word salad' from White House on whether or not we are in a recession. Likewise the truism depicted in the quote, 'All too often, the Fed and government officials are arsonists posing as firemen.' "I will add one bit of new information (not really new) on measurement systems: I do agree with the common sense ways of measuring things in feet and spans, etc. BUT, the metric system did not originate out of thin air. "The meter is the basic unit in that system, hence the name metric system. But it is not common knowledge that the meter is one ten-millionth of the distance from the north pole to the equator. So dimensions of the earth itself has given us the meter. "All the best, KEEP WRITING." – Stansberry Alliance member Rick C. "Fine, Dan, call me a 'keyboard cowboy', but honestly, do you really want to argue that imperial measurements 'based on everyday experiences' are thereby superior to the metric system? Dan, when you are immersed in the metric system, it becomes your everyday experience! It's merely a question of familiarity. "And even by your criteria of 'everyday experience', is 32 for freezing and 212 for boiling water better than 0 and 100? How about pressure in PSI rather than bar? "In the USA I had to use 5/32 and 13/64 tools! Spend a year really immersed in metric and you will never make such a silly argument again. And please I say this with all due respect, you are a superb analyst and I highly rate your judgement." – Paid-up subscriber Marc E. "WOW! Great thought piece! I really enjoyed this and found myself wishing it could reach all Americans." – Paid-up subscriber Linda H. "Dan Ferris' missive today was brilliant and simply stated... great work! GREAT WORK!" – Paid-up subscriber T.L. All the best, Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
August 1, 2022
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,006.6% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 866.1% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data | 10/09/08 | 847.8% | Extreme Value | Ferris | ETH/USD
Ethereum | 02/21/20 | 604.4% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 540.5% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 433.0% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | AFG
American Financial | 10/12/12 | 423.8% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | WRB
W.R. Berkley | 03/16/12 | 345.7% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | FSMEX
Fidelity Sel Med | 09/03/08 | 311.8% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | NTLA
Intellia Therapeutics | 12/19/19 | 311.4% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 4 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | | 1 | Extreme Value | Ferris | | 2 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel/Wade |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | ETH/USD
Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 1,374.3% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE-USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,191.7% | Crypto Capital | Wade | POLY/USD
Polymath | 05/19/20 | 1,068.9% | Crypto Capital | Wade | MATIC/USD
Polygon | 02/25/21 | 875.4% | Crypto Capital | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 532.9% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 5.96 years | 1,466% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Band Protocol crypto | | 0.32 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra crypto | | 0.41 years | 1,164% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Inovio Pharma.^ | INO | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold^ | SA | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Frontier crypto | | 0.08 years | 978% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin crypto | | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 4.12 years | 777% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Intellia Therapeutics | NTLA | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. | 
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar