Americans Are Under Invested In sum, gold has been this century's unrivaled star. It marks the longest period in modern history in which the metal has outperformed all other major assets including stocks. The second-longest was the period between the beginning of 1929 and the end of 1945. Gold also outperformed in the period between 1970 and the early 1980s. The sad news is that very few Americans have participated. Only a minuscule portion of Americans own gold. Each quarter the Federal Reserve publishes estimates of the balance sheets of American households. The two most important assets are stocks and real estate (mostly homes). Bonds and bank deposits are also important. There is no separate entry for gold. Possibly it is lumped in with durable goods, a category that is small relative to stocks and real estate. Within this small category, gold would be a relatively minor constituent, with autos far more important. Gold Security or Physical Gold For Americans who want to invest in gold, the easiest way is to invest in a gold exchange-traded fund (ETF). Or you can buy shares in gold miner stocks or ETFs. The combined value of all these investments amounts to no more than 1% or so of the S&P 500. Newmont (NYSE: NEM) is the only gold miner actually represented in the S&P 500. NEM's market cap is about $46 billion compared to $25 trillion for the entire index. It makes up a tiny portion of the S&P. Don't mislead yourself into thinking you gain a stake in gold by owning an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. The other choice is to buy physical gold. Estimates are that Americans consume about 160 metric tonnes of gold a year. Probably more than 80% of that is jewelry, which generally shouldn't be viewed as an investment. The cost of gold jewelry includes labor and design, which means you pay a big premium for whatever gold it contains. Moreover, other than for rare antique jewelry, most jewelry depreciates over time. The remaining 20% is a combination of gold coins and bullion bars. If you count jewelry purchases as gold investments, at today's gold price it amounts to a yearly investment in gold in the U.S. of around $25 per person. Excluding jewelry, the figure drops to about $5 per person. Most estimates are that between 1% and 5% of Americans own gold as an investment. If you speak to a financial advisor, not many would mention gold as something to consider. But as our comparison exercise shows, it helps to think outside the box. As coronavirus panic grips Wall Street, the price of the yellow metal has further to run. Here's the really good news: I've pinpointed an under-the-radar play in gold that the rest of the herd is missing. My play on the "Midas metal" could hand you exponential gains…if you act now. Click here for details. |
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