| The unemployment rate for the month of May is expected to rise above 20% when that figure is reported next month. Some experts believe it could as high as 25%. And if you think consumer spending was bad in April, it could be a whole lot worse in May. For that reason, I believe the White House and Congress will finally pass a major infrastructure spending bill this summer. People need jobs, and the federal budget cannot afford any more handouts without getting something back in return. If I am right about that, then the simplest way to profit is buying shares of the SPDR S&P Global Infrastructure ETF (GII). This fund is comprised of utilities (46%), industrials (36%), and energy companies (18%). Since peaking above $57 in February, GII fell below $33 in March before rallying back above $40 in April. Since then, it has been stuck in a narrow trading range near $42. The passage of an infrastructure spending bill could quickly push GII over the $50 mark. That would be a gain of 20%, in addition to its annual dividend yield of 4.4%. That is why GII is the one mutual fund I would buy right now if I could only buy one. It is low-risk, high-yield, and still has plenty of upside potential left in. A Lot of Bull Making the bull case for GII is easy: - Demand for utilities will increase as soon as the economy roars back to life.
- The energy sector should rally as oil prices continue to rise over the summer.
- Passage of an infrastructure bill could trigger a surge in heavy equipment sales.
Making a bear case for GII is considerably more difficult. - Even if the economy takes longer than expected to recover, demand for essential services such as electricity and water should be largely unaffected. Plus, most regulated utilities are protected and can adjust pricing to ensure profitability.
- As for the energy sector, oil prices can't go much lower than where they were a month ago. A recent Forbes article pegged the fiscal break-even price of oil for Saudi Arabia at $91/barrel. That is nearly twice the $48 breakeven level for the U.S. That means the oil price war is hurting them far more than it is hurting us.
- The biggest question mark surrounds industrial stocks that rely on big-ticket items for most of their revenue. If no infrastructure bill is passed, many of them will most likely languish until the economy is back on its feet.
To my way of thinking, the worst-case scenario for GII is roughly a push. In that case, the 4%+ dividend yield still makes it worth owning. But if I'm right about how the second half of the year will go, GII could handily outperform the overall stock market. Editor's Note: Our colleague Jim Pearce just steered you toward an investment that's poised to beat the market. Another way to reap market-beating returns is to tap multi-year mega-trends that are immune to cyclical ups and downs. That's where the marijuana industry comes in. An increasing number of states are legalizing cannabis, propelling pot into a multi-billion-dollar business. Cannabis investments are a must for your portfolio, but the trick is finding the right pot stocks. Some cannabis stocks are stellar investments. Many others are not. You need to conduct due diligence. The good news is, we've done the homework for you. Our team has unearthed hidden gems in cannabusiness that most investors don't even know about. Looking to make money on marijuana legalization? For our latest research on the most profitable pot stocks, click here. | 
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