Why I'm Not Yet Bullish on Stocks Dear Money & Crisis Reader, Stocks are red this morning. If you've been following my work this week, you shouldn't be surprised. History tells us that after sharp, severe crashes – such as the one from late February to this week – there is usually a sharp two-day bounce. As I recently noted, throughout history there are only two other instances in which stocks crashed this rapidly – the crashes of 1929 and 1987. Both crashes featured a swift double-digit decline of over 20% in a matter of days… Both crashes featured a MASSIVE two-day rally that saw stocks rise 20%... And both of them then saw stocks roll over to either retest the lows (1987) or fall to new lows (1929). The crash of 1929 saw stocks lose 34% in the span of a few days before staging a massive two-day rally of 18%. Stocks then dropped to new lows. The crash of 1987 saw stocks fall 22% in a single day. They then staged a massive two-day rally of nearly 20% before falling to retest the lows. The point is that this week's massive bounce doesn't mean the lows are in. We are still in "watch and wait" mode for the markets. It would be perfectly normal to retest the lows or even break to new nominal lows. Having said that, the credit markets – which lead stocks – have shown signs of improvement. |
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