Kamis, 19 September 2019

Expert Interview: Drone Strikes, Pot Stocks... and More

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Expert Interview: Drone Strikes, Pot Stocks... and More
By John Persinos

When Saudi Arabia's crucial oil infrastructure was hit by drone missiles last weekend, the name of one investment analyst popped into my mind: my colleague, Amber Hestla.

Amber Hestla learned to survive in the concrete canyons of Wall Street… and the dusty battlefields of Iraq. Amid the backdrop of worsening tensions in the Persian Gulf region, now's the time to tap her hard-earned wisdom about markets and how they intersect with geopolitics.

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Amber Hestla is the chief investment strategist of the trading services Income Trader, Profit Amplifier and Maximum Income. Amber specializes in generating income using options strategies that minimize risk.

Amber (pictured here) served in Operation Iraqi Freedom. While deployed overseas with military intelligence, she learned the importance of interpreting data to forecast what is likely to happen in the future. It's a skill that helps her find hidden investment gems that go on to score market-crushing gains.

Upon her return home from Iraq, Amber worked as a trader for a Registered Investment Adviser with $200 million in assets under management and as an independent research analyst.

As the Middle East once again becomes a flashpoint, I sat down with Amber for a one-on-one interview regarding her perspectives and how investors should trade now.

You've seen military action in the Persian Gulf region, so your insights into the drone attack on Saudi oil infrastructure has particular validity. Do you think the Saudis can get their damaged processing facilities back up to speed in a timely fashion?

Official reports indicate the country has restored 50% of its capability already, or nearly three million barrels a day. The Saudis expect to fully repair the system within weeks. I believe that will happen for two reasons.

First, this was a precise attack. Satellite imagery shows the damage is isolated to a few areas. The damage also is well-contained.

There were relatively small entry points. The advantage of that type of targeting is that you limit collateral damage. In this case, that was a problem for the attackers. They targeted a few points and created a lot of smoke. But the damage was well contained and, it seems, minimal.

Precision weapons only work well when they carry a large punch. In this case, the drones were loaded with fuel rather than explosives and didn't pack enough firepower when they struck to really damage the facility.

Second, because the damage is so well-contained, the spare parts on site weren't damaged. Technicians began working to repair the damage with parts on hand and additional parts are arriving quickly.

This was a spectacular attack but from a military perspective I'd rank it as "less than fully effective."

Didn't this missile attack, launched deep into the heart of Saudi territory, underscore the kingdom's persistent vulnerability to terrorist attack, despite all the expensive weapons they've purchased from us?

The drone threat is relatively new. In the past, there were some drone attacks on the Riyadh airport and that threat appears to have been effectively countered. Now, the threat against the energy infrastructure will be met.

One problem for all military services is that we fight the last war. When drones hit the airport, that was the war to fight. Resources were dedicated to preventing an attack like that, and few resources were available to prepare for unknown attacks.

That will change. The Saudis now see the entire kingdom is vulnerable and will do what's needed.

But don't you think this constant threat will weigh on markets, at least in the form of a "risk premium" in oil prices?

No, because the Saudis will do what they decide needs to be done. Their internal security forces will crack down on suspected terrorists. Their military will step up operations. This is the kind of problem the Saudis have addressed in the past.

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After the assassination of the King in the 1970s, security at the palaces was increased. When the Grand Mosque was seized a few years later, security was increased throughout the country and especially in Mecca.

Disruptive events tend to happen once in Saudi Arabia. I am confident the government will respond as effectively as they have in the past.

Which type of energy equities stand to benefit the most from these geopolitical trends?

While Saudi Arabia will be safer, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a problem and that does indicate oil from the Middle East is at risk. This should benefit pipeline companies in the long run, because they will move oil from fracking fields in the U.S. to refineries.

Politicians have prevented construction of pipelines in the Northeast U.S. and that is now a crisis. Utilities are restricting new customers in and around New York City, for example. This needs to change. A cold snap this winter or ship seizures in the Strait are likely to force the change.

In your mind, what are the odds of a recession occurring within the next 12-18 months? Regardless of the time frame, how can investors prepare their portfolios for the coming economic downturn?

Within the next 12-18 months, a recession is almost certain. Definitely more than 50% and most likely greater than 75%.

Prepare by diversifying your portfolio. By diversification I don't mean buy lots of stocks in different industries and hold some bonds. That's what many experts say and that doesn't work.

I mean supplement long-term strategies with short-term strategies. Use alternative income strategies like options selling, for short-term positions. Use strategies that buy short-term put options to benefit from declines.

Short-term positions adapt to the changes in the markets as they develop. I think they are an overlooked source of safety.

Among all the investment opportunities out there, which one excites you the most?

Marijuana. This is new and I am seeing firsthand it is a big business. I live less than an hour from Colorado where marijuana is already legal. There is demand. There are profits to be made.

Demand is diverse. Yes, there are young people in tie-dye t-shirts. Well, there are middle-aged people, usually with beards, in those shirts. There are kids taking a break from video games. But there is a lot more to the demand than that.

There are also older people getting CBD oils for their skin problems and sativa drops to help them sleep.

There are stories behind each sale and the demand is growing, if you listen to the bud-tenders behind the counters. Each customer who gets relief tells a friend. We are in the early stages and this is already a multi-billion-dollar industry.

The marijuana industry will be worth hundreds of billions soon and I'm finding new ways to invest in the sector all the time, as more and more companies add products.

I'm excited about all the U.S. companies in "canna-businss" because I don't like trading foreign stocks. To be honest, the currency conversions create tax issues for me and require detailed analysis of currencies in addition to stocks. I don't do that. I trade U.S. stocks and options on those stocks and there are enough marijuana trades in the U.S. to generate real profits in dollars.

Editor's Note: My colleague Amber Hestla just gave us her "big picture" view of investment trends. But you should know about her online event scheduled for next week.

If you act quickly, you can secure a spot at her exclusive cannabis trading workshop on September 24. Amber will show you how to make life-changing amounts of money, within a highly lucrative (but largely unknown) sliver of the marijuana market.

The legalization of marijuana is one of the greatest investment opportunities you'll ever see in your lifetime. But here's the snag: the industry is getting crowded and a shake-out is imminent. You need to pick the right marijuana stocks.

That's where Amber's special event comes in. While spots are still available, click here to sign up.

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