| TQ Morning Briefing | Structured notes tied to Blue Owl dropped below 50 cents on the dollar after the firm permanently halted redemptions and sold $1.4 billion in loans. At 8:30 this morning, December PCE and Q4 GDP land together. Oil is at seven-month highs. The Fed is already signaling it may not cut at all. | | | | | | Two data prints at 8:30 land into a wobbly tape. | S&P futures are roughly flat after Thursday's decline. The index closed at 6,862, down 0.28%. The Dow lost 267 points. The Nasdaq slipped 0.31%. | Thursday's story was not the index move. It was the new sign of contagion in credit markets. | Blue Owl (OWL) fell 5.9% after gating its retail credit fund. Blackstone dropped 5.4%. Apollo fell 5.2%. One fund gated redemptions. The entire alt manager complex responded as if liquidity itself was in question. | Oil extended its rally. WTI settled at $66.43, up nearly 6% over two sessions, and Brent touched $71.66, the highest since August. Gold reclaimed $5,000. | The 10-year sits at 4.09%, having bounced from 4.04% earlier this week. Hawkish FOMC minutes flagged the possibility of rate hikes. | Overnight, the DAX lost 0.5%. FTSE shed 0.4%. Nikkei rose 0.86%. Shanghai fell 1.26%. | PCE and GDP at 8:30 test whether the macro floor is holding. The credit system is already showing cracks. | Trade Implication | If PCE prints at or below 2.6% and GDP holds above 2.8%, rate-sensitive sectors catch a bid. The 10-year retests 4.03%. XLU and XLRE extend. If PCE comes in at 2.9% or higher, June cut expectations collapse and everything except energy gets repriced. |
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| | | | | WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED MARKETS |
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| | | Iran moved from risk premium to strike timeline. | In 24 hours, over 50 US fighter jets deployed to the region. Two carrier strike groups now sit in the Persian Gulf. The White House said there are "many reasons and arguments" for striking Iran. Senior officials told Trump the military is ready as early as Saturday. | Trump gave Iran 10 to 15 days to reach a deal. Iran responded by partially closing the Strait of Hormuz for IRGC drills and announcing joint exercises with Russia. Eurasia Group prices a 65% probability of US strikes by end of April. | WTI jumped 4.6% Wednesday and added 1.7% Thursday. The largest two-day move since the Israel-Iran escalation in June. | Higher oil feeds inflation expectations. Inflation narrows the Fed's room to cut. Narrower room pressures rate-sensitive equities. If Brent holds above $70 into the March FOMC, the committee's hawkish posture hardens further. | Last June, strikes happened and oil gave it all back in weeks. This time the buildup is pre-strike. The market is pricing anticipation, not resolution. | Execution Bias | XLE is up 21% year-to-date and remains the cleanest hedge. The second-order trade is defense. If operations extend beyond targeted strikes, LMT, RTX, and NOC re-rate higher. If a deal materializes, oil retraces $10 to $15 fast. |
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| | | PCE and GDP arrive in the same 8:30 window. | Core PCE was 2.8% in November. Consensus expects roughly the same for December. | Q4 GDP expectations have converged around 2.8% to 3.2%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow sits at 3.0%. Q3 was 4.4%. | The FOMC minutes showed multiple members willing to consider hikes if inflation stays sticky. A hot PCE this morning validates that stance. A soft print reopens the door to two cuts by year-end. | Goldman expects core PCE to fall to 2.1% by December 2026. Their argument: half a percentage point of current inflation is tariff pass-through that fades. If Goldman is right, today is noise. If they are wrong, the Fed stays restrictive into 2027. | Execution Bias | Watch the 2-year yield in the first 15 minutes. If it drops 5bp or more on a soft print, XLF and IWM catch a bid. If it climbs, short-duration reasserts and cash-rich mega-caps outperform. |
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| | | | Central Banks Are Lying About Gold | Jerome Powell says gold isn't money. The Fed says inflation is under control. | But look at what central banks are doing. | Last year, they bought more gold than at any time since 1967. China dumped $100B in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, Turkey… all loading up. | This isn't a trend. It's a panic. | After the U.S. froze Russia's assets, the world learned a hard lesson: there's only one asset no one can freeze. | Gold. | I've just released an urgent report on one stock positioned to benefit as this rush accelerates. | Get the name and ticker here. |
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| | | | Capital split three ways Thursday. None of those paths led to growth. | Financials led down on the alt manager selloff triggered by Blue Owl. Software continued sliding. Salesforce, Intuit, and Cadence fell 1.3% to 2.8%. Eight of eleven S&P sectors finished red. | Energy was the exception. Exxon is now up over 25% year-to-date. | The real signal came from how the market treated two earnings reports. Walmart beat Q4 revenue and raised its dividend. It dropped 1.4% on cautious full-year guidance. Beating the quarter is no longer enough. If the forward guide does not expand, the stock sells anyway. | Deere raised full-year net income guidance to $4.5 to $5.0 billion and surged 11.6%. The market rewarded genuine earnings acceleration over defensive positioning. | The Nasdaq logged its fifth consecutive losing week. The IGV software ETF is nearly 30% below its 52-week high. Bear market territory. | Execution Bias | Deere is the template. Cyclical value outperforms when it delivers real earnings growth, not just stability. If GDP prints strong this morning, the same logic applies to CAT, GE Vernova, and Eaton. Capex tailwinds with room for multiple expansion. |
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| | | | Two catalysts sit on opposite ends of next week. | Iran is the weekend risk. If strikes happen this weekend, Monday's open reprices energy, defense, and inflation expectations at once. The deployment pattern resembles pre-Iraq 2003 more than any buildup since. | Markets are pricing the possibility, not the certainty. Volatility lives in that gap. | Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close. Consensus: $65.5 billion in revenue, $1.52 EPS. Every large cloud company guided capex above expectations this quarter. Polymarket prices a 94.5% chance of a beat. Options market is pricing roughly a 7% move. | If Nvidia beats and guides strongly, the AI infrastructure trade resets higher and software fear intensifies. If guidance disappoints, the five-week Nasdaq slide accelerates. | Kevin Warsh's confirmation as incoming Fed Chair adds a third variable. His opposition to QE suggests a smaller balance sheet, which pressures the long end. | Investor Signal | If you are long rate-sensitive sectors into the weekend, the Iran risk is binary and unhedgeable with data. Size to survive a Monday gap. |
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| | | | The mechanics behind private credit's first real gate. | Last November, Blue Owl tried to merge OBDC II into its publicly traded vehicle. That deal would have imposed 20% losses on existing investors. Backlash killed it. Redemption requests exceeded the 5% quarterly cap. At its tech-focused fund OTIC, investors pulled 15.4% of assets in January alone. | Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in direct lending assets to four institutional buyers at 99.7% of par. It used proceeds to pay down debt, and lock the door permanently. | A Citigroup structured note tied to Blue Owl traded below 50% of face value. | The loans sold near par.
The structured paper built on top of them did not.
That gap is the signal. | Software makes up 46% of OTIC's portfolio. AI is not causing defaults yet, but it is raising doubts about revenue durability. When lenders start to doubt revenue, refinancing stops being automatic. | Edge Setup | Watch ARES, BX, and APO for Q1 redemption disclosures. If software credit deterioration accelerates, the contagion runs through BDC NAV marks. The next gating event will not sell at par. |
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| | | | Economic Data: PCE Price Index, GDP Growth, Personal Income and Spending, S&P Global Composite PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales | Fed Speakers: Bostic | Earnings: Dominion Resources (D), ONEOK (OKE), Diamondback Energy (FANG) | Overnight: Nikkei -1.12%, Shanghai -1.26%, FTSE +0.63%, DAX +0.20% |
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| | | | | | | | Two numbers land at 8:30. One measures inflation. One measures growth. | Oil near $70 is the quiet constraint sitting between them. | At this level, crude doesn't break demand. It doesn't spike CPI. But it does cap how aggressively the Fed can ease. Energy isn't creating inflation pressure. It's preventing inflation from falling fast. | If PCE runs hot, the Fed stays sidelined longer. If PCE cools, oil limits how far cuts can go. | That's the ceiling. | The market is not debating recession this morning. It is debating flexibility. How much room does policy really have? | Today sets the macro floor. | Wednesday sets the growth multiple. | Stability is enough. But policy has less room than it did a month ago. |
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