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Saturday's Bonus Content Small Cap Spike: Semi Stock AEHR Up +40% in 2026 Post-EarningsWritten by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/21/2026. 
Summary- Aehr Test Systems has soared in the first weeks of 2026, with the catalyst being the firm's latest earnings.
- While the EV market puts pressure on sales, the company is seeing strong momentum in AI-driven demand.
- Aehr's opportunity is large, but uncertainty and a high valuation still cloud the stock's outlook.
For shares of Aehr Test Systems (NASDAQ: AEHR), it's hard to imagine a hotter start to 2026. As of the Jan. 20 close, the stock is already up 44% on the year. Its most recent earnings release on Jan. 8 sent mixed signals but ultimately helped the stock jump 16% the following day. With revenues falling yet millions in new artificial intelligence (AI) orders arriving, what does the future hold for the semiconductor stock? AEHR's Earnings: Revenues Fall, But Booking Projections Look StrongOn Jan. 8, Aehr reported its Q2 fiscal 2026 (FY2026) results. (Aehr's fiscal year runs ahead of the calendar year.) The report painted a mixed picture: revenue totaled $9.9 million, down 27% year-over-year (YOY) and well below the $11.5 million analysts had expected. However, Aehr's adjusted loss per share (EPS) was better than forecast: a loss of $0.04 versus the $0.08 analysts had estimated. The company's adjusted net loss was $1.3 million, compared with net income of roughly $700,000 a year earlier. Notably, effective backlog rose from $17.5 million in the prior quarter to $18.3 million. Despite the revenue decline, management's guidance provided a bright spot. Over the next two quarters combined, Aehr expects revenue of $25 million to $30 million, versus $32.3 million in revenue generated in the back half of fiscal 2025. Management also projects bookings of $60 million to $80 million during this period. Those bookings could convert into meaningful revenue in fiscal 2027. If bookings translate into revenue in FY2027, Aehr would be back in growth mode. Based on the company's guidance, total revenue for FY2026 is expected to be between $46 million and $51 million. That recovery outlook is largely driven by Aehr's expanding footprint in the AI market. AI Optimism Fuels AEHR as SiC Demand SoftensAehr said on Jan. 8 that it received over $5.5 million in additional orders for its Sonoma systems, which the company says came from multiple "leading-edge AI companies." Sonoma demand is accelerating—less than halfway through fiscal Q3, the company had already taken more orders than it did in all of fiscal Q2. While Sonoma and other AI-driven products are key growth drivers, they haven't yet offset the decline in overall revenue. Previously, Aehr saw strong demand from the electric-vehicle market. Customers used its FOX-P family to stress-test power chips based on silicon carbide (SiC), driving solid revenue growth from 2021 to 2023. SiC-based devices offer advantages over many incumbent EV power-chip technologies, including the potential to extend range by 5% to 10% and substantially reduce charging times. Aehr believes most EV makers will migrate to SiC over time. However, slowing EV growth has dampened SiC demand recently. Because SiC was previously Aehr's largest revenue driver and AI-related revenue is still comparatively small, overall sales have declined. Accordingly, Aehr says the bulk of its expected bookings are AI-driven, attributing "not very much at all" of the bookings to SiC. The company expects initial AI customers to expand orders materially in 2027 and 2028. Aehr estimates the AI test-and-burn-in market at $8 billion to $10 billion today, with potential to reach $15 billion—an opportunity that dwarfs the company's current revenue and bookings. AEHR: Real AI Upside, But Significant Risks RemainAehr's outlook shifted meaningfully positive after its latest updates. Still, based on FY2027 estimates the stock trades at more than 12 times forward sales, which is not inexpensive. Further momentum in the AI business over the next several quarters could lift sales estimates materially, but there is no guarantee that will happen or that Aehr will meet current expectations. The stock offers substantial upside potential if AI demand accelerates, but it carries considerable execution and market risks.
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